Gold Just Getting Started

Still plenty of non-believers. Every correction/consolidation should carry on getting people worried for a while yet. It's early days in the new (or continuing) bull. The charts have been screaming breakout and rally for months, with nothing (to my mind at least), supportive of a meaningful move down. Things can happen to catch us out though, so I never say 'never'.

The following chart shows why I think the 2008/09 pattern may well be a fair guide as to where we may be going. For a pattern to repeat it needs a repeat of the environment which caused it. I believe we are at a very similar point in the gold cycle which will push price up as it did then. There are a million things that could make it rise at a different rate (most of them making it rise faster). However, I drew over the top of the 2008-2013 move and copied it across to the present day. It's one possible roadmap. Interestingly it takes us to the $1500-$1550 region by April and then on to somewhere around $2500 in 2020. I think the biggest likelihood is that we will overshoot this by some distance. I'll call this my fractal of hope.

Chart300Gold.PNG

Just for good measure, here's an update of the CHF/USD ratio chart that I've posted a couple of times.

Chart301CHFUSD.PNG