Your vision of the future could very well come to be. Ultra-low fertility rates are shrinking the workforce and consumer base. Projections are showing a peak population by 2080 followed by rapid decline. If 2080 is correct then we'll have more than enough time to transition into this new societal model. Elon Musk frequently talks about this population collapse while skirting near-term implications, maybe to keep investor confidence. Musk shared during his keynote that Tesla's is pivoting away from cars (ceasing production of the S, 3, X, and Y by 2030) to products like autonomous RoboTaxis, Optimus robots, and AI-driven ecosystems. I think this could break the cycle of decline and actually turn demographic scarcity into an opportunity. I think you’re right that only companies creating new, indispensable products (like the iPhone did in 2005) can grow in these kinds of shrinking markets.
Your point that only people consume is true in our current timeline. However, Tesla’s ecosystem is hoping to blur this line. Optimus robots, powered by Tesla’s AI, could become semi-autonomous economic agents creating a circular economy. Robots will maintain RoboTaxis, build solar farms, and recycle materials, reducing costs and will create some self-sustaining revenue loops. Optimus will also fill in for the shrinking workforce. In our aging society, its likely that robots will effectively act as a kind of proxy for human consumption. For example, a family might not buy a car but will pay for RoboTaxi rides or Optimus services, effectively outsourcing consumption to Tesla’s network. This could flip the demographic decline into a driver for greater demand for automation.
I think AI will potentially be solving all kinds of existential problems humanity is facing in the future as well, fertility being one of those. Humanity's behavior and intelligence just isn't evolving at a fast enough rate to get us out of the many challenges that we're faced with. I think our impediments are more behavioral than intellectual, things like—greed, corruption, and tribalism are holding us back.
Our future is still somewhat blurry but I remain optimistic. I'm so glad more people are thinking about this now and it's an ongoing conversation. As much as it pains us, and no matter how much we complain about change, humanity is awfully good at making major pivots when we're required to. I have faith we'll solve this. Thanks for the thoughtful comment!
Interesting that Tesla is pivoting away from cars. Are there going to be replacement models or a complete exit?
The projections of peak population in 2080 which you refer to are from the UN - they are outdated and incorrect. Indeed the UN has been consistently forecasting many low fertility countries to have substantial implausible increases in fertility. This has obviously not happened.
Based on the latest figures, which include huge drops in birthrates in the last few years, the total population peak will be in 2060 or even earlier.
But it is peak working age population, rather than total, that is most relevant economically.
This may peak as soon as 2035.
Demographers I follow, using latest figures, say Global fertility has dropped below replacement already. African birthrates are dropping sharply & almost everywhere else has fallen far below replacement.
The thing is that Making Life Multi-planetary needs (1 million+) relatively young (fertile) people to move to Mars and have plenty of kids there.
Thus Musk is really racing against time. Even assuming (very) optimistically that mass settlement of Mars could begin in the 2034 launch window, he will be seeking settlers from a fast shrinking pool.
I was surprised when Elon said this during his keynote. They're planning on making a full pivot to CyberCabs and RoboVans (their fully autonomous vehicles) and also concentrate on the Optimus robot. This seems like a premature move because people will still want to drive. He's betting everything on autonomy—typical high-risk Elon move. I hope it pays off!
Oh, that's concerning. I'd say even if it's 2060, considering how quickly AI is evolving, it might be enough time to solve a lot of challenges. I read that there are only a couple of areas of the world where birthrates are at the ideal rate of replacement.
It is definitely a race against time. I've heard SpaceX talks very recently about a moonbase settlement before Mars. That makes sense to use the moon as a "trial run" and staging area. Avi Loeb, the scientist in the news recently about 3I/Atlas, disagrees with outposts on Mars. He thinks we should build platforms in space and just begin building ships and habitats.
Yes there is a debate between the Martians & the O'Neilians with Elon on one side & Bezos on the other, although recently Elon has become open to O'Neilian ideas.
It is looking like SpaceX intends to provide enough launch capacity for both to happen simultaneously.
Indeed, because of the timing of Mars launch windows only every 26 months there will be huge launch capacity available for non-Mars projects during around 23 out of 26 months.