This is an attempt of using the results of analysis done on the meritocratic bot @utopian-io to estimate this voting round's result.
DISCLAIMER: Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. This author will not be liable for anything you use this for.
Outline
- Reason for Analysis
- Scope of Analysis
- Contributions to be Voted On
- Analyzing Previous Performance
- Estimates
1. Reason for Analysis
This was triggered by a comment from @abh12345, this author cannot remember where that is, but the content of the comment was something like "the value of this analyses will be in their use of predicting future performance."
2. Scope of Analysis
Data to be estimated are those contributions that have not yet been voted on by the @utopian-bot, but were already approved by the moderators.
- Data was acquired on
Dec. 19, 2017 2102H UTCusing Utopian's APIhttps://api.utopian.io/api/posts/?limit=0&skip=0§ion=all&sortBy=created&filterBy=review&status=any&type=all
3. Contributions to be Voted On
Based on the table below, there are 419 contributions to be up-voted by the bot this round. There's still a possibility for this number to increase with the remaining 2 hours before the bot starts voting.
Here's a view of the contributions per category:
| Bar | Radar | Donut |
|---|---|---|
 |  |  |
Based on the charts above, tutorials and translations make up 56% of the contributions to be voted on with 118 and 117 each, respectively.
4. Analyzing Previous Performance
Data to be analyzed and applied will be based on the voting performance of the immediate previous round. As of this time, the immediate previous round is Dec. 18, 2017.
The key values this author is looking at are:
- Number of Contributions Voted on
- Total Voting Weight Used (%)
- Sum of Bot Vote ($)
The category to be estimated is the Translation category.
4.1. Zooming Into Translations
Based on the numbers above, the distribution of the rewards pool was as follows:
| Vote Count | % Distribution |
|---|---|
 |  |
Based on the table above, there were only two (2) voting weights used by the bot to vote for translations. They are 3.67% and 5.41%. Looking into their vote values will give us:
And here's a look at the voting weight and vote values as time went by:
5. Estimates
As of this time, the bot will be up-voting in roughly around 1.5 hours.
Assuming the same weight % will be distributed as follows:
The estimated vote rewards to be given to translations is $3651.
Tools Used
Source Code
Codes used to extract data for this analysis are available in Github:
https://github.com/eastmaels/biutopian
I am part of a Blockchain Business Intelligence community. We all post under the tag #BlockchainBI. If you have an analysis you would like carried out on Steemit or Blockchain data, please do contact me or any of the#BlockchainBI team and we will do our best to help you...
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Posted on Utopian.io - Rewarding Open Source Contributors
Thank you for the contribution. It has been approved.
So i guess the next analysis will be a comparison between your estimation and what did the bot give to this category ;) thank you for sharing @eastmael (the visibility category is not presented in the tables !!?)
You can contact us on Discord.
[utopian-moderator]
Lol. Yup. :D Still have to go trough the accuracy though.
That is true. I'll check it. And commit the generated CSV as well. Thank you for pointing that out.
I checked the 'Visibility' contributions and there's one blog there that should have been included. I'll go back to the generated CSV and see if the entry was there.
;) okey great then
Ah, but who will get which vote, that's the tough question!
Yes. It's the next step. I'm still figuring out how to run the bot locally just to get the vote values (remove the logic for the actual vote and just output the simulated vote weight, vote power, and vote value.)
Nice!
Were last nights vote weights as expected?
Looks like we need those 4 bots soon!
Will do a quick check.
Net's too slow from where I am. will check when I get home late tonight.
Thank you for the useful analysis and post
Thank you.
Hey @eastmael I am @utopian-io. I have just upvoted you!
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