World Cup Result Analysis

in #utopian-io4 years ago (edited)

There are 1694 valid entries in 2000 SBD World Cup guessing competition and no one guessed right all the results. How well are you doing? For each good guess, add 1 point into your score. After 8 matches no one had 8 points so you might still have a chance even with few wrong results. We will also look how well Steemit’s average guess is doing.
WorldCup5.png

After 4 matches, only 60 Steemit users had all 4 points, most users had 2.
WorldCup10.png

After fifth game of France vs Australia the stats didn’t change much since 95% people guessed right.
WorldCup6.png

Sixth match ended up unexpectedly for 95%, only 87 users expected Argentina to tie Iceland.
WorldCup7.png

Next two games ended up the way the majority of Steemit users expected with 46% believed in Denmark’s win and 57% trusted Croatia. After this point, no user had 8 point from 8.
WorldCup8.png

If you picked the results as I recommended, there would be 541 users ahead of you after 5 matches, 524 users after 6 matches, 556, 272, 178, 367, 375, 383, 284, 276 and 254 users ahead of you after 14 matches.
points.png
(Red arrow shows number of points for Steemit's average moving after each match.)
15th match ended differently than average of Steemit users thought so more users get above average, exactly 309, next match 366, 262, 259 and 242 after 19th match was above average compared to 1096 below the average.
WorldCup9.png
(Pink bar shows number of points for Steemit's average moving after each match.)

Distribution of points after 20 matches.
WorldCup12.png

Distribution of points after 25 matches.
WorldCup13.png

Distribution of points after 29 matches.
WorldCup15.png

Distribution of points after 34 matches.
WorldCup18.png

Distribution of points after 40 matches.
WorldCup19.png

State after 40 matches.

Steemit’s average points:

25 (only 3 points behind top score)
(How many points do you have if you guessed the same way as Steemit’s average.)

Number of users above average:

27

Number of users below average:

1603

The most points:

28

Number of users with the most points:

1
Current leader:
@pablitomoreno's post

WorldCup20.png

My recommendation was to choose winner if more than 40% of users choose the team, if no team has over 40%, choose tie. Let’s look how would you end up if you do as I suggested.

ScoreWin probabilityTeamTeamWin probabilityTie probabilityPoints
5:086%RussiavsSaudi Arabia6%8%1
0:19%EgyptvsUruguay77%14%1
0:149%MoroccovsIran23%28%0
3:320%PortugalvsSpain51%29%0
2:195%FrancevsAustralia2%3%1
1:192%ArgentinavsIceland3%5%0
0:123%PeruvsDenmark46%31%1
2:057%CroatiavsNigeria21%22%1
0:135%Costa RicavsSerbia37%28%0
0:192%GermanyvsMexico3%5%0
1:195%BrazilvsSwitzerland2%3%0
1:058%SwedenvsSouth Korea17%25%1
3:089%BelgiumvsPanama3%8%1
1:23%TunisiavsEngland91%6%1
1:258%PolandvsSenegal17%25%0
1:269%ColombiavsJapan16%16%0
3:152%RussiavsEgypt22%26%1
1:092%PortugalvsMorocco3%5%1
1:089%UruguayvsSaudi Arabia5%5%1
0:12%IranvsSpain96%2%1
1:086%FrancevsPeru4%10%1
1:152%DenmarkvsAustralia17%31%0
0:372%ArgentinavsCroatia8%20%0
2:093%BrazilvsCosta Rica2%5%1
2:046%NigeriavsIceland27%28%1
1:221%SerbiavsSwitzerland44%36%1
5:286%BelgiumvsTunisia6%8%1
2:192%GermanyvsSweden2%6%1
1:213%South KoreavsMexico68%19%1
6:193%EnglandvsPanama3%4%1
2:239%JapanvsSenegal33%28%1
0:327%PolandvsColombia39%34%0
3:055%UruguayvsRussia18%27%1
2:114%Saudi ArabiavsEgypt66%20%0
2:295%SpainvsMorocco2%3%0
1:13%IranvsPortugal93%4%0
0:07%DenmarkvsFrance74%19%0
0:234%AustraliavsPeru42%25%1
1:25%NigeriavsArgentina82%13%1
1:215%IcelandvsCroatia61%24%1
-3%South KoreavsGermany94%3%
-44%MexicovsSweden23%33%
-2%SerbiavsBrazil93%6%
-54%SwitzerlandvsCosta Rica20%26%
-22%JapanvsPoland58%21%
-15%SenegalvsColombia63%23%
-39%EnglandvsBelgium31%31%
-26%PanamavsTunisia44%30%

The rest will be updated in comment section.

WorldCupList.png
WorldCupList2.png

Coming soon

After group stage, I will post analysis of the last stage with useful tips how to win.

Data

If you want to look at the data yourself, look at @super007’s post. You may count your points yourself of you can just find your place at this post.

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Hello. The contest steembord inspired me to hold my charity.
I want to give three lucky football souvenirs from Russia.
Terms of the contest read here
https://steemit.com/worldcup/@yak15/attention-contest-i-send-a-gift-to-the-world-cup-2018-to-three-lucky-winners

P.S
I do not have the means for active advertising. I really want to give gifts to my new friends from steemit so I write such messages. Thank you for any help in distributing this information.

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