Russian officials expressed their displeasure this week and accused NATO of wanting war. Elements of the U.S. Army's 2nd Cavalry Regiment arrived at an outpost about 100 miles outside of Kaliningrad, Russia's militarized territory situated between Poland and the Baltics. As a result, at least one Russian lawmaker is now calling for an increase in Iskander-M ballistic missiles to be deployed to Kaliningrad. "This creates prerequisites that may eventually enable [NATO] to create a certain stronghold. We will surely not turn a blind eye on this. We will take retaliatory measures," he said.
There were a number of significant developments this week -- pre-war indicators, if you will:
NATO announced another expansion this week, as they prepare to create a 10-nation NATO force in Romania to counter Russian dominance in the Black Sea.
U.S. Army Europe commander Gen. Ben Hodges expressed his disappointment that the U.S. and NATO have failed to develop a radio that cannot be jammed by Russian electronic warfare. (Hodges is expected to retire this year.)
Denmark increased defense spending by 20% in response to Russian activity in the region.
In a signal that Russia intends to maintain or expand its presence abroad, the Russian military is now floating the idea of allowing foreign troops to join Russia's ranks, after Putin allowed foreign troops to join its counter-terror missions abroad (which could one day include actions against NATO or pro-Western forces)
The Croatian contingent of a U.S.-led multinational battle group arrived in Poland to join up with its counterparts.
Russian officials are expressing their concern with Georgian cooperation with NATO, after several exercises there earlier this year (generally pro-American, the country of Georgia borders Russia).
Fearing Russian influence in the region, Hungarian leaders are pressing for faster and better integration of the western Balkans into NATO.
Despite warnings from Russia -- and perhaps in spite of that -- Finland is debating a national referendum on joining NATO.
Outlook: Given the political landscape and geography of Europe, there are lots of moving pieces to coordinate as NATO pushes for increased readiness to face Russia in a war. A retired Army Colonel once remarked to me that one reason -- maybe the greatest reason -- that Napoleon had so much success on the battlefield is that he fought coalitions of nations that spoke different languages and did not have unified commands. That same issue must be pressing on NATO as they conduct military exercises to ensure that all member states will be on the same page should war eventually happen. From Russia's perspective, one major strength is its electronic warfare capabilities, and jamming NATO communications is certain to disrupt battlefield coordination, giving a unique advantage to Russian forces. My outlook remains the same this week: the situation is stable, but developing. I don't expect war to occur in the near-term, however, both NATO and Russia are escalating the situation as they both continue to modernize and deploy forces in the border region.
@culper is a former intelligence analyst who not tracks the risk of World War 3.
Cc: @stevescoins & @deanlogic
Scandinavia needs to fix their internal problems first or they might have a conflict within their own borders before the Russians make a move.
Thank god none of my immediate kin are draft age any longer.