Back in 2017, I had a super solid investing strategy that worked a treat in the run up to the top of the bull market, all those many years ago when Bitcoin topped 20K. Yes.... 20K was the ATH back then. The strategy was very simple and it was working on Bittrex and Binance - All I did was look for the flattest token (didn't matter what token) I could find, buy some, set the sell 50-100% up and wait.
Trading guru!
In a bull market when it is almost guaranteed that everything is going to pump significantly, it really isn't hard to increase the stack. However, in order to do so, it is necessary to have some capital in order to invest. Back at the end of 2017, I didn't have much and stables weren't much of a thing, so it was trading backwards and forwards between different tokens, each time trying to move more into the ones I wanted to hold longer term. The biggest challenge I had (and still have) is that once it was in something I wanted, I find it hard to spend it on investing into the next round. This slows my progress considerably.
A lot of people are worried and turned off by the volatility of the crypto markets, because all they see is the FUD in the media that makes a volatile opportunity appear a bad opportunity. That is not the case, volatility is your friend for investing, because a flat market doesn't offer much in return, unless it is paying dividends. But even dividends aren't likely to be excessively good percentage wise in respect to how much is invested. Yet, we crave security and search hard for certainty in our world, despite knowing at a conceptual level, nothing is certain. So, we invest "safe" while what we invest is handed over to people who are going to invest it in less than safe ways to maximize their potential income, using our funds.
This is the HIVE chart:
Where'd you buy?
If you bought in that long red 2020 stream, it would have been possible to make 2500% by the end of 2022, if selling at the very top. But, a lot of people wouldn't have bought because it was too flat, too bearish, not a good time... now, most tokens would have been in the same position at that point, right, so for those who had additional funds to consistently invest into the boring and depressed lows, would have been cost averaging into the lows, taking 10 to 20% losses at times, but patiently waiting for the boom month. Those momentary losses that felt bad, were only that - momentary.
So many people are scared of those zoomed in losses that they don't invest, forgetting that like most people, they aren't actually going to be trading daily, they are trading for the peaks. While they fear losing those percentages today, it means that their stack isn't growing for tomorrow - or next year.
The spikes are a double edged sword for many of us, because while some people have bought the lows and are waiting to sell, the majority are waiting for the highs to buy. And, what this means is that those with the means to buy the lows and wait, are buying in much larger volumes than those who are waiting to buy the highs. This is why when those extreme peaks form, it is going to crash so hard, because the people with the largest volumes are able to sell for a profit all the way down.
Looking at the HIVE chart for example, if I bought 10,000 tokens at the low, it would have cost me around $1000 dollars. If I was to sell at the peak high, it would have been $30,000 worth. That means that those who are buying the peak are paying far more than I paid myself for it and why they are doing that is because they are hoping that it will go up further, perhaps making another 20%. However, if they were to get the same percentage gain that I would be getting, the price of Hive would have to be around $90 each.
What are the chances??
But, people are blinded by the massive profits that others who bought the lows are getting, without calculating what would have to happen in order for them to get the same when buying the highs. $90 HIVE would have the total market cap sitting around 40 billion dollars for HIVE alone, which if this would be the case today, would be around 3% of the entire market cap of crypto. Having said that, it isn't impossible at some point in the future on the back of a massive spike, because the devaluation through inflation of fiat dollars means that the following highs can be significantly higher, meaning that on the charts, increased volatility.
Now, I am not calling 90 dollar HIVE, but I do suspect that in the next significant crypto bull (not necessarily the next ATH), 10 - 20 dollar HIVE is possible. However, it is not going to stay there, so I have to break my habit of holding what I want and taking some profits along the way instead. Then, buy back at the next flat low section, and hold again.
This is Bitcoin over the last year:
It was relatively stable between July and November before taking a 30% hit in November til mid January. That would have hurt buying the flat, right? but of course, it is around 50% up on that price and if looking to sell only at the ATH, a person buying at 16 or a person buying at 20, will both be happy people. Cost averaging in monthly though would have meant that both would end up buying the same amount, some at the lows, some a bit higher, but end up with increased stack.
What I have found over the years with people and I am guilty of as well, is that when buying, I am worried about the current price without thinking of at what price I would be willing to sell at. Going back to 2017 I didn't have this problem with the shitcoins I was buying, I just applied a default 50-100% on top, with the variance depending on my gut feelings about them, or the length of the flat. No fundamentals were known at all - I didn't even know half the tokens.
When we don't consider our own behavior based on the numbers, we aren't likely to make very good decisions, because we will more than less, hold off on buying continually, and then rush into buying when the prices have already significantly climbed and our FOMO is strong. Cost averaging through consistently buying is handling the volatility of the markets on both the up and the down side, but being scared of the daily volatility means that we will likely never buy the bottom and never sell the top. We will always be chasing for more profits, because we are comparing our gains to that of others, who bought the bottoms and making thousands of percent, while we might only be 100% up - not enough!
I am not a trader.
I am just not cut out for it. So, rather than trading constantly, I try to cost average my way into things when I can consistently, because it helps me cope with the most volatile component of the markets - Me. My emotions and behaviors are the volatility that carry the biggest risks in my trades, not the markets themselves. If I am unable to find ways to reduce my own volatility, the markets are going to be the roughest sea and me, the most unskilled captain. If we could get charts on our own behaviors and emotional swings, I think we would all be scared to back ourselves too.
I wonder....
What is my personal ATH in the future.
Where do you see yours?
Taraz
[ Gen1: Hive ]
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
I remember similar thoughts and feeling back in the late 2017 run up. I remember thinking that I should have been in just a little earlier and I was too late for those big gains. Still, I funnelled some fiat in, invested in some video cards for GPU mining and traded daily. I learned quite a lot about making a few point (above the exchange commission fees) and constantly growing my stack. It took its toll on my attention span for real life and effected my mood too!
Now, I am content with swing trading a percentage of each stack of coins when I see a bit of a bull run. The exception is in my biggest stack which is Hive as I am actively leveraging that daily through content creation and engagement. I power that shit up all the time like it was Frank's Red Hot sauce ;)
For the most part, I could be swing trading on the daily chart even with the sideways movement and am happy sitting on crypto when it dips a long time. Not worth my time at the moment as I would rather build a business IRL, have the family time before the kids move away, and pat my stack of crypto lottery tickets hopping one or more of them will pay off before retirement time!
Having learned the lessons of bull and bear markets just have me feeling better about my investment and a little more in control to cash out in bull markets and buy in during bear markets to increase my stack. (And growing my Hive stack slowly but surely)
People rarely recognize the impacts it makes on other aspects of their life. It is funny, people will see how "working too much" is bad and admonish those who keep working for a salary to what they see is to the detriment of family and health, but we all largely would do the same, given the opportunity.
Ha! Yeah, it is hard to turn down the gains on it and the ease at building stack, especially at these prices. In time, selling some at the highs to buy back at lows etc - but it is an easy way to build and, a lot more fun!
Spending time with family and knowing there is a good chance that you will be able to help them on their journey at the same time, is pretty sweet.
I'm with you on the taking profits bit.
I really struggled with selling some of the SPI I hold: about 50% bought at 1 HIVE each when HIVE was 13 cents, the other half comprises airdrops, dividends and earning through doing something I was doing anyway; now each one is worth about (give or take) 4 HIVE and HIVE is about 40 cents.
In the end, I overcame myself but it was difficult 😱 (I know, exchange some wealth for some more wealth? Sounds like it should be easy).
I was selling them to purchase a stake in the XV token. This is based on the principle of holding a basket of 15 cryptos from the top 50 ranked cryptos, holding them for two years during which time, they are continuously re-balanced (and replaced with something else if appropriate). At the end of two years, all the cryptos are sold and everything changed to HIVE and all the XV tokens are bought back.
The real selling point for me is that the decision to sell has already been made (June 2025). I don't have to cope with all that emotional turmoil.
That is some decent gains!
Should be simple - why is it so hard? :D
That sounds like a good strategy. Too many (myself included) have a little too much of a set and forget strategy, without the strategy of what is being set :)
Well done!
In 2017 I was a kid and I heard only the name of Bitcoin. That time I didn't have any knowledge about how to buy and sell. But in 2020 I started my crypto journey and started to gain knowledge about it. When I joined in this platform the price of Hive was already pumped and I thought it will rise up more. But I was wrong and Bear market started. In the current time I have only one plan. Until the price the Hive price stay below 0.5 $ ,I will buy hive as much as I can and I will sell those when sudden pump occurs. I noticed it several times that Hive pump suddenly in each 2/3 month. I am waiting for that opportunity to increase my asset.
Regardless of the market conditions, there are speculators doing their thing on the markets, manipulating where they can to drive their own profits. Catching a few of them makes quite a difference.
I am glad that I bought hive in the past. Right now my SPS alone are worth nearly as much as I invested. I just wish I had discovered splinterlands earlier.
There are many great cards that are too expensive for me. But had I joined in the alpha days I would have some of them right now.
I mean if I would have something like this after selling it I could buy so many cards... that bloody thing is worth more than my entire collection...
I avoided Splinterlands at the start! :D
But, would you have been buying Kitty for 10 dollars?
41 Golds burned.
I definitely get what you're saying there. Even though I look at the prices and think that I've done pretty well by buying at somewhere near the low point, I must admit having some doubts at that point of time. I think it's just human nature to think of the worse case scenarios. Not that that's a bad thing. We must be prepared for things to go terribly wrong too of course.
Yes and while it isn't bad, we should also think about what actually has value. The same mechanism that keeps us from taking risks on the edge of a cliff, stop us from investing money into a market. Only one of those really has an existential risk - but they feel the same emotionally.
Yes - psychology is the main thing! Faith based on your knowledge and patience will do all the work for you / be literate, patient and consistent. It will make you a little rich - if that is your goal. Take care of the network, stake Hive and we will win !!!
These are words to live by. I feel that culture today conditions us to not dive deep into the topics that impact us the most, while supporting instant gratification activities and jumping from one thing to the next. Current society is the anti-thesis of an investment mindset.
Sounds like another post! :D
The Hive chart looks pretty tasty now... It's low and at a reasonable price....
Laughs I am just waiting for that pump... Although im not going to sell, perhaps a small portion but not much.. It's just fun to be part of the hype when it pumps 😎😎
It is fun when it pumps and it is fun to get a little gain and then buy a bit more a few days later :)
I see crypto as way too volatile for me to really want to consider any short term trading. So I prefer a longer term trade and I have to vet which tokens I want. I see any token without a solid plan as a gamble and it's not worth the risk. So I think dollar cost average isn't a bad strategy at all.
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
I wouldn't keep anything in a shitcoin for long, but at the start of the bull, it was easy!
I think even if I bought the dip of HIVE, it would still be powered up in my wallet :)
Not a bad strategy in my opinion :)
I noticed that the Ethereum is going to be having some gains based on what the experts are saying for the price. But I wonder if the months till the 2024 arrive would be a good time to sell some? Because I feel like there is going to be big gain next year. So should one hold or take regular profit out?
Depends on you. As I see it, the time to take profits is at the top of the bull and the time to build is on the way up.
Someone told me about this same trading strategy you mentioned here, during the pandemic when I was learning how to trade cryptocurrency. The person says he will look for coins that have lost their values or lost about 50% of their normal price within a week or more, then he will buy it and sell it when the price has pumped. It is good but I guess it is risky at times. What if the person buys a coin that won't pump or coins that won't last long?
That's a loss. Right?
There is always risk involved and, it might be a dead coin too :)
I'm also not a trader, i slipped into cryptocurrency in December 2021 , ouch i know it's too late than you but than i came into this world, as a newbie to crypto i buy some token and think to hold on it for a year but than suddenly in may 2022 there's a great crash in crypto world and i lost my all money but than i realized that crypto is gambling and i should invest that money in it which is really extra to me!!!!!
Did you invest what wasn't extra? People are crazy... some took debt to invest as if there was only upside. I don't understand how people make their financial decisions sometimes.
I invest which was extra, i don't need them but i just told you that i lost that extra too at that time
Congratulations @tarazkp! You have completed the following achievement on the Hive blockchain And have been rewarded with New badge(s)
Your next target is to reach 91000 replies.
You can view your badges on your board and compare yourself to others in the Ranking
If you no longer want to receive notifications, reply to this comment with the word
STOPCheck out our last posts:
Support the HiveBuzz project. Vote for our proposal!
Yeah, why not? ;)
In the crypto space, anything can happen! Hahaha... But I think we need a bit more time hehe!
I was one who did sell the BTC top in November 2017, after 4 years of collecting BTC from a variety of means. My friend and I started a company. Ironically, we would have made more money had we just left the funds in BTC and waited for the next top in 2021, but the company has provided revenue (profits/yield) over the course of those 4 years that we would not have had access to if we waited to profit on the next bull run.
Recently, I have been using some trading software from my time at Cointelegraph that analyzes token mentions on twitter, comparing a 24hr average to the tokens 30-day moving average of mentions. I have some trading funds I've dedicated to this strategy and with all this recent meme-coin mania of $BONK and $PEPE and $PHUB and a whole host of other degenerate nonsense, I'm up well over 20x. There isn't even any technical analysis, it trades completely from changes in twitter hype and it is making good money. I'm just not looking forward to having to sort it all out for the taxman next year, but better to be in the profits and paying tax than not to profit at all.