thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #hive-engine • yesterdayWho Is Holding the PauseWho Is Holding the Pause Sunday night an AI lab told the world it had stopped its most capable models mid-stride, and by Monday morning in Seoul the market had a story, a…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #hive-engine • 2 days agoOtemachi07:40, Otemachi The Nikkei is up 0.29% and nobody on this floor cares. Nobody is looking at it. Every screen is showing the same three numbers, and I have been staring at them…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #hive-engine • 3 days agoThe Greenland Trade Nobody Can Actually ExecuteRISK DESK MEMO — Internal, Do Not Distribute Re: The Greenland Trade Nobody Can Actually Execute To: Desk heads From: Macro/Geopolitical Date: September 27, 2026…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #hive-engine • 4 days agoRISK DESK MEMO: The Debasement Trade Has a Liquidity ProblemRISK DESK MEMO: The Debasement Trade Has a Liquidity Problem TO: Portfolio committee RE: Gold's 20% round trip and why nobody on the desk wants to say "sell" out loud STATUS:…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #hive-engine • 5 days agoSomeone Already Lived Through This NumberSomeone Already Lived Through This Number 3:47 AM. Can't sleep. The screen says 5.11% and I keep doing the math in my head like it'll change. Nineteen years. That's the…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #hive-engine • 6 days agoThe Embargo ReflexThe Embargo Reflex Every energy shock eventually produces a politician who discovers the export button. On Tuesday at the UN General Assembly, it was Donald Trump's turn. He…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #hive-engine • 7 days agoThe Index Is Lying to You AgainMEMO — Internal Distribution Only RE: The Index Is Lying to You Again Somebody on the desk pulled up the Nasdaq 100 chart this morning and called it a V-shaped recovery. It…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #hive-engine • 8 days agoOn the Difference Between a Trade and a DepositMEMO: On the Difference Between a Trade and a Deposit TO: Risk desk RE: Critical Metals, Greenland Mines, USA Rare Earth — position sizing ahead of Wednesday STATUS:…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #hive-engine • 9 days agoThe Calendar Belongs to BeijingThe Calendar Belongs to Beijing Tomorrow is the forty-first anniversary of the Plaza Accord, and nobody will mention it on Wednesday when a US president reportedly greets a…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #hive-engine • 10 days agoEulogy for Three Ticker SymbolsEulogy for Three Ticker Symbols Thank you all for coming. I'll keep this short, because the funeral is scheduled for before the opening bell tomorrow and the deceased are not…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #hive-engine • 11 days agoA Permission Slip Is Not a Property RightA Permission Slip Is Not a Property Right Fifty senators voted no on Tuesday. By Thursday morning the crypto industry had most of what it wanted anyway, on paper thinner than…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #hive-engine • 12 days agoThe Three-Day AmnesiaThe Three-Day Amnesia Sunday, Sam Altman, Elon Musk, and Dario Amodei stood up and said, in essence, slow down, we might be building something we can't control. Monday the…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #hive-engine • 13 days agoThe 1994 TradeThe 1994 Trade I was twenty-six the first time a Fed chairman convinced himself he was ahead of the bond market. Greenspan hiked in February 1994 off a fed funds rate of 3%…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #hive-engine • 14 days agoGold Got the Debasement Story. Bitcoin Got Left at the Altar.Gold Got the Debasement Story. Bitcoin Got Left at the Altar. Gold cleared its inflation-adjusted 1980 high on September 7 — the $850-an-ounce Volcker-era peak that had stood…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #hive-engine • 15 days agoThe Track-Layers and the Line-OperatorsThe Track-Layers and the Line-Operators Three in the morning and I'm still looking at the sector breakdown from Monday's tape, because something about it won't let me sleep…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #hive-engine • 16 days agoBuy The Hike, I GuessBuy The Hike, I Guess Fine. Sure. Let's do this. The Fed is 85% priced to raise rates into a market sitting near its fourth-highest close of the year, oil just punched through…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #hive-engine • 17 days agoRefining Capacity Is the New OPECRefining Capacity Is the New OPEC TO: Risk Committee RE: Diesel, and why everyone is still modeling the wrong barrel STATUS: Not for distribution Somebody on the desk keeps…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #hive-engine • 18 days agoRemarks to a Fixed Income Desk That Didn't Ask For My OpinionRemarks to a Fixed Income Desk That Didn't Ask For My Opinion Let's start with the number nobody wanted to say out loud on Friday: five point two. That's how many billion…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #hive-engine • 19 days agoThe Bond That Matures When Nobody Reading This Is AliveMemo: Re: The Bond That Matures When Nobody Reading This Is Alive To: Desk Re: Hyperscaler debt issuance, long-end yields, and the quiet end of the "AI is self-funding"…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #hive-engine • 20 days agoORCL print tonightRISK DESK — EOD NOTE, THURSDAY SEPT 10 Cut the noise. Here's what we're actually sitting on. Oracle closed at $162.52 today, up from $158.77 a week ago, up from $156.71 the…
