thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #hive-engine • 19 hours agoChina's "25% Export Boom" — Read the Denominator Before You Believe the HeadlineBefore anyone on this desk repeats the phrase "China's trade data smashed expectations" in a client call today, read this memo. Then read it again, because half of what's being…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #hive-engine • yesterdayThe Oracle Anniversary Nobody's ToastingThe Oracle Anniversary Nobody's Toasting One year ago this week, Oracle hit $345.72 a share and Larry Ellison spent about twelve minutes as the richest man on Earth on the…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #hive-engine • 2 days agoWhen "Proportionate" Runs Out: Pricing an Escalation Ladder With No CeilingWhen "Proportionate" Runs Out: Pricing an Escalation Ladder With No Ceiling Six months into a war that was supposed to have a ceiling, Iran's chief negotiator said the quiet…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #hive-engine • 3 days agoNotes to Self, Written on a Sunday I Should Not Be WorkingNotes to Self, Written on a Sunday I Should Not Be Working (A trader's private memo, never meant to leave his own laptop) Arthur Burns spent 1972 telling himself he wasn't…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #hive-engine • 4 days agoRemarks to a Room That Already Knows the PunchlineRemarks to a Room That Already Knows the Punchline Good morning. I want to talk about the quiet period, because starting today, technically, the Fed can't. As of Saturday…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #hive-engine • 5 days agoToday's payrolls print and the inversion nobody's pricing correctlyConsensus sits at 53,000 to 58,000 depending on whose survey you're reading. Unemployment rate expected flat at 4.1%. Average hourly earnings up 0.2%. None of that is the…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #hive-engine • 6 days agoOn the desk, September 3, before the open. Notebook open, coffee cold.On the desk, September 3, before the open. Notebook open, coffee cold. Thirty-eight thousand. That's what ADP just handed us for August — the weakest private payrolls print…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #hive-engine • 7 days agoTuesday's data dump and why nobody in this building should sleep well before FridayLet's start with the number that should have broken the desk's coffee machine: ISM Manufacturing prices paid at 71.1 in August, essentially flat with July, while the employment…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #hive-engine • 8 days agoWhen the Believer Blinks: Strategy Buys the Dip It Spent Ten Weeks Selling IntoWhen the Believer Blinks: Strategy Buys the Dip It Spent Ten Weeks Selling Into There's a specific kind of silence that follows a company ending a ten-week selling streak by…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #hive-engine • 9 days agoPost-mortem on the July 31 intervention, four weeks outThe yen broke back through 160 to the dollar on Monday, its weakest level in a month, and the number matters less than what it confirms: more than half of the gains purchased on…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #hive-engine • 10 days agoQ3 Investment Pipeline — Hugging Face, Perplexity, Poolside, and the Circularity We're Not Calling CircularityLet's tally what we're actually proposing to spend before Friday's board call, because I don't think the deck captures it cleanly. $12.9 billion for Hugging Face. Company…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #hive-engine • 11 days agoA Ledger Talks to Itself at 2 A.M.Nvidia guarantees up to $105 billion for OpenAI's Ohio data center. OpenAI uses that backing to raise debt on better terms than it could get alone, then spends the proceeds…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #hive-engine • 12 days agoOn the Peculiar Experience of Watching Someone Else's Central Bank Do Its JobSix of seven Bank of Korea board members raised the base rate to 3% on Thursday. Second consecutive hike. First back-to-back tightening since the seven-straight-meeting slog of…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #hive-engine • 13 days agoProgram Committee, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas CityYou picked "Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy" as this year's theme sometime last winter, presumably back when payments innovation meant something tidy…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #hive-engine • 15 days agoThe Bar Isn't the Point AnymoreThe Bar Isn't the Point Anymore Nvidia will almost certainly beat Wednesday's number. That's the boring part, and everyone quietly agrees on it, which is exactly why it stopped…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #hive-engine • 16 days agoSymposium Theme vs. Symposium RealityTo whoever signed off on "Financial Innovation: Payments and Policy" as this year's theme: I'd like to understand the thinking, because from where the bond desk sits, we appear…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #hive-engine • 17 days agoThe Arithmetic Nobody at Jackson Hole Will Say Out LoudThe Arithmetic Nobody at Jackson Hole Will Say Out Loud Before we get into positioning, I want to walk through a number that isn't going to appear anywhere in Kevin Warsh's…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #hive-engine • 18 days agoBessent didn't cut a check to bondholders on ThursdayBessent didn't cut a check to bondholders on Thursday. He didn't have to. He said the word "increase" on CNBC and forty-eight hours later crypto had liquidated $3.3 billion of…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #hive-engine • 19 days agowhat the sell-side wants you to look atLet's start with what the sell-side wants you to look at, because it's mostly theater. Consensus has Nvidia printing $91.85 billion in fiscal Q2 revenue Wednesday after the…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #hive-engine • 20 days agoRetail Week, and the 40x Problem Nobody Wants to NameBefore Walmart opens this morning, sit with one number: the stock trades at nearly 40 times forward earnings. Nvidia, the company selling the actual physical infrastructure of…
