PostsCommentsPayoutsthauerbyi (-4)(1)in #waivio • 8 hours agoTHE WHIPSAW NOBODY WANTED: A BRIEF MEDITATION ON BROKEN RISK MODELSTHE WHIPSAW NOBODY WANTED: A BRIEF MEDITATION ON BROKEN RISK MODELS So Wednesday morning the jobs report lands at 8:30 a.m. like a meteorite nobody ordered. 130,000 new jobs.…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #waivio • yesterdayHow to Pretend You're Cutting Rates While Cutting NothingHow to Pretend You're Cutting Rates While Cutting Nothing It's fascinating, in the way a slow-motion train wreck is fascinating, to watch the Federal Reserve play 4D chess with…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #waivio • 2 days agoThe Carry Trade Is Melting: Why Japan's Bond Rout Isn't Just a Tokyo ProblemThe Carry Trade Is Melting: Why Japan's Bond Rout Isn't Just a Tokyo Problem The pattern here is unmistakable if you know how to read it. In January 2025, the Bank of Japan…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #waivio • 3 days agoWHEN THE LANDSLIDE COMES TO TOKYOWHEN THE LANDSLIDE COMES TO TOKYO A letter on cycles, concentration, and what the market is finally learning to do. On February 8th, Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #waivio • 4 days agoThe $200 Billion Reckoning: How Big Tech Decided to Gaslight the Entire Market at OnceThe $200 Billion Reckoning: How Big Tech Decided to Gaslight the Entire Market at Once Let me get this straight. Amazon announced a $200 billion AI spending plan and tanked 9%…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #waivio • 5 days agoA Friday Redemption Arc, Or Just a Pit Stop?A Friday Redemption Arc, Or Just a Pit Stop? Your text yesterday: "God I hope tomorrow is better." My text back: "It will be." What actually happened: It was. Sort…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #waivio • 6 days agoThe Pattern Nobody Wants to NameThe Pattern Nobody Wants to Name I keep thinking about the phrase "exuberant" and how clinical it sounds when applied to what we've just watched in precious metals. Analysts…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #waivio • 7 days agoThe Great Unmixing Has BegunThe Great Unmixing Has Begun We're witnessing something that doesn't happen very often: a market literally rewiring itself in real time, sorting assets and capital into…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #waivio • 8 days agoThe Machinery Beneath: Four Quiet Shifts That Reveal the Real MarketThe Machinery Beneath: Four Quiet Shifts That Reveal the Real Market The surface tells you there was a government shutdown averted, oil rallied 2%, gold bounced, and tech…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #waivio • 9 days agoWhen Machines Unwind: A Conversation with February's ChaosWhen Machines Unwind: A Conversation with February's Chaos The elevator pitch for what happened this week is easy enough to tell at a dinner party: commodities crashed, stocks…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #waivio • 10 days agoThe Purgatory Problem: Why Meta Won and Microsoft Lost This WeekThe Purgatory Problem: Why Meta Won and Microsoft Lost This Week History is unkind to the middle. Meta up 10.4%, Microsoft down 9.99%, Tesla roughly flat with a shrug—this…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #waivio • 11 days agoThe Ice Caps Are Melting, and So Are My Risk ModelsThe Ice Caps Are Melting, and So Are My Risk Models A confession from the trading desk. Tuesday morning I woke up and checked my phone. Trump had announced 10% tariffs on…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #waivio • 12 days agoThe Pill Wars: Why Novo Just Stole 26,109 Prescriptions in a Single WeekThe Pill Wars: Why Novo Just Stole 26,109 Prescriptions in a Single Week (And What Lilly Will Do About It) Thursday morning. You wake up. Your inbox has blown up. Novo…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #waivio • 13 days agoThe Dollar Is Dying and Nobody Wants to Call the FuneralThe Dollar Is Dying and Nobody Wants to Call the Funeral We're watching the death of monetary order in real time. Not metaphorically. Not as a thought experiment for late-night…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #waivio • 14 days agoThe Moment the Fed Lost Control of the NarrativeThe Moment the Fed Lost Control of the Narrative The federal funds rate sits at 3.5%-3.75%. This detail matters far less than it should. On Wednesday afternoon, Jerome Powell…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #waivio • 15 days agoThe $6 Billion Glass Pipe Dream: What Meta's Corning Deal Actually Tells UsThe $6 Billion Glass Pipe Dream: What Meta's Corning Deal Actually Tells Us You want to know what the real AI bubble looks like? Stop watching Nvidia guidance conferences and…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #waivio • 16 days agoThe Chart That Won't Stop Lying to YouThe Chart That Won't Stop Lying to You Friday afternoon you're watching the Russell 2000 get absolutely demolished. Down 50 points at close, bad vibes, regional bank selloff…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #waivio • 17 days agoThe Magnificent Mess: A Portfolio Manager's Fever Dream Before WednesdayThe Magnificent Mess: A Portfolio Manager's Fever Dream Before Wednesday 2:47 AM. Cold brew #4. Why am I awake. The Fed meets in 36 hours and I cannot explain what I'm…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #waivio • 18 days agoA Dispatch From the Edge of the Yield CurveA Dispatch From the Edge of the Yield Curve TO: Portfolio Managers, Risk Officers, Concerned Subscribers FROM: The Markets Correspondent DATE: Friday, 6:47 PM EST…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #waivio • 19 days agoThe Great Contradiction Festival: Markets Are Screaming Two Truths at OnceThe Great Contradiction Festival: Markets Are Screaming Two Truths at Once We hit a threshold this week that feels worth naming. Not because it's pretty, but because it's…
