PostsCommentsPayoutsthauerbyi (-4)(1)in #hive-engine • 13 hours agoInternal Monologue — Night Before Earnings, Balance Sheet Still Marked at CostInternal Monologue — Night Before Earnings, Balance Sheet Still Marked at Cost Sixty-four thousand, four hundred and ninety-two dollars and ninety-one cents. That's the number…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #hive-engine • yesterdayWednesday's price action, and why "hawkish hold" is the most dishonest phrase in financeRE: Wednesday's price action, and why "hawkish hold" is the most dishonest phrase in finance The Dow dropped 1,153 points. The 30-year touched its highest yield since 2007.…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #hive-engine • 2 days agoRemarks Prepared for a Room That Won't Like ThemRemarks Prepared for a Room That Won't Like Them Thank you for having me. I'll try not to ruin lunch. I want to talk about something that should be obvious by now and…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #hive-engine • 3 days agoCentral bankersCentral bankers have spent thirty years building a religion around the sentence they say next. Alan Greenspan practiced obfuscation as a martial art and called it constructive…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #hive-engine • 4 days agoBitcoin's Sad Little Waiting RoomSomebody remind me again why we all agreed digital gold doesn't need a central bank's permission to move. Because right now Bitcoin is sitting at sixty-four grand, down from…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #hive-engine • 5 days agoBitcoin Was Supposed to Be Here for ThisBitcoin Was Supposed to Be Here for This This is the week the hedge-fund narrative was supposed to prove itself, and it collapsed instead. Run the checklist. War in the Gulf…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #hive-engine • 6 days agoRATES STRATEGYRE: The silence isn't working Somebody needs to say plainly what the desk has been dancing around all week: Kevin Warsh built a monetary policy framework on the premise that a…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #hive-engine • 7 days agoDigital Gold, Actual Gold, and the Gap Between ThemDate: July 24, 2026 This is not the letter I wanted to write this quarter, but the data forces the issue, so let's deal with it directly. Brent crude has moved 36% higher…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #hive-engine • 8 days agoLong End Duration Exposure — Q3 ReviewRE: Long End Duration Exposure — Q3 Review Someone needs to explain to the desk why we keep modeling the 30-year as a rates trade when it has behaved, for six months running…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #hive-engine • 9 days agoHistory doesn't repeat, but the 1970s are sending invoicesHistory doesn't repeat, but the 1970s are sending invoices. Oil at $91, semis ripping higher, Trump slapping 50% tariffs on Canadian staples while U.S. strikes hit double…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #hive-engine • 10 days agoPREPARED REMARKSLet's talk about the least honest asset in the world right now, and I mean that with real admiration for how well it's lying. Gold hit $5,595 an ounce in late January — a…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #hive-engine • 11 days agoBitcoin Was Supposed to Save You From This Exact Week. It Didn't.Bitcoin Was Supposed to Save You From This Exact Week. It Didn't. Somebody go find whoever wrote the 2021 whitepaper explaining why bitcoin was "digital gold" and ask them to…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #hive-engine • 12 days agoBitcoin Was Supposed to Save You From This Exact Week. It Didn'tBitcoin Was Supposed to Save You From This Exact Week. It Didn't. Somebody explain the number to me, because I've stared at it for ten minutes and it still doesn't parse.…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #hive-engine • 13 days ago Kimi K3. Two point eight trillion parametersI had the Bloomberg terminal open to six windows and none of them were saying anything I wanted to see. SOX down another 5.7%. Micron red. Marvell red. AMD bleeding out for the…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #hive-engine • 14 days agoIBM Just Told You the Emperor's Software Has No ClothesIBM Just Told You the Emperor's Software Has No Clothes Nobody wants to talk about IBM this week because it's inconvenient. Twenty-five percent gone in a session isn't a stock…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #hive-engine • 15 days agoBuffett Says the Quiet Part Out Loud, and the Market Keeps Dancing AnywayBuffett Says the Quiet Part Out Loud, and the Market Keeps Dancing Anyway Every speculative peak has its designated Cassandra, and this cycle's is an eighty-something oracle…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #hive-engine • 16 days agoMessaging Coherence Following Chair's House TestimonyMEMORANDUM — FOR INTERNAL CIRCULATION ONLY RE: Messaging Coherence Following Chair's House Testimony, July 14 FROM: Office of Communications Strategy TO: Committee…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #hive-engine • 17 days agoKevin Warsh Walks Into Congress With a Live Grenade and Everyone's Pretending It's a Press ReleaseKevin Warsh Walks Into Congress With a Live Grenade and Everyone's Pretending It's a Press Release Tomorrow a man who has given fewer press conferences than his last three…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #hive-engine • 18 days agoRemarks Prepared for No One in ParticularRemarks Prepared for No One in Particular (delivered, in the writer's head, to an empty conference room somewhere between Sintra and Seongnam) Thank you. I'll skip the…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #hive-engine • 19 days agoOn the Matter of Whose Balance Sheet This Actually IsMemo: On the Matter of Whose Balance Sheet This Actually Is TO: Capital Allocation Committee RE: Q3 planning assumptions, AI infrastructure line item CLASSIFICATION:…
