Yeah, too bad September sucks for crypto.
Condolences to @encrypt3dbr0k3r for emotionally buying a million coins in a single day. If we've learned anything from recent events, it should be that a MicroStrategy strategy of placing cascading buy orders during a dip is the way to go.
NAH!
That's no fun!
- People really like to go all or nothing.
- MIN/MAX
- ALL IN!
Trading in this way provides a certain level of gambling excitement and catharsis.
Too bad it's also a really good way to lose money for no practical reason :D
Again, September is crap for crypto.
It always has been. People go crazy in the summer, and September is the time to reel it in and unwind positions. It even happened during the Mega-bull-run of 2017. Bitcoin spike to ATH $4850 on August 31. September the price crashed to $3100 before the legendary run up to $20k in December.
Seriously, look at the history.
We hit September and the entire market knows the party is over.
2016? Skipped?
Bitcoin Doubling Curve (Q4)
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100 | $200 | $400 | $800 | $1600 | $3200 | $6400 | $12800 | $25600 | $51200 |
Every year that goes by Bitcoin becomes more and more predictable. September has never been a good month all the way back to the anchor value of $100 in Q4 2013.
Why'd you skip 2016?
Because it is the most relevant year.
Seriously
We are traveling right underneath the doubling curve 5 months after a halving event, just like last time. MicroStrategy fleeced the market by preventing a dump to fill the futures CME gap. Brilliant play. $425M bought while the price looked seemingly unaffected.
x10 Mega-bubble
Speaking of that $425M... how much is that going to be worth if Bitcoin goes 10x higher than the doubling curve in Q4 2021? Just shy of $10B... lol. I wonder if they'll unload any at the peak... hm.
Calling it.
We are pretty much at the bottom right now. How do I know? Because September is always the bottom, especially after a halving event in the same year. In a year all this petty price action is going to look like a flat line compared to what's to come, just like it always does after a halving event.
I still get a kick whenever I see some fluff piece talk about how Bitcoin "spiked" or "plummeted" by 5%. 5% is literally nothing in this space. 5% is stability. All the real movements happen 20%-40% at a time.
Conclusion
I'm felling pretty good with my current exposure to the market. I've been around since 2017, and as I look around to all the other accounts that entered when I did, I'm doing pretty well comparatively. I'm a scrapper and I've been able to save every last penny over the last 3 years. That dedication is going to pay off, sooner rather than later. Let it ride!
Btc seems to follow the stock market which is so annoying as I believe it should be inversely correlated to stocks and cash.
Surplus money all flows in the same river. Bitcoin is going to capture ten times the value as the stock market. The pump and dumps will just look similar. We've still not even had the opportunity to see what happens in a bear market considering this totally fake-looking V-shaped recovery.
This BTD crowd is going to get burned when the true value of the market is revealed. I get the surplus money theory, but a few years ago it was hedge. I think nowadays people just treat it like a stock. Hell some people thinks it’s a stock...
BTC is a hedge. Such a good hedge in fact that the system it hedges against is going to jump in head first. This slow-motion train-wreck of an economy is going to take 2 years to derail. Major fireworks at the end of 2021.
It does feel like it which is so sad. The government is doing a great job of screwing things up.
Lol September is the best time to accumulate each year I always go pretty big during this month and this year was no different
Knowing how September is, any ideas for October?
Checking out the market, is it the right time to buy?
2020 is a weird year. Maybe year 1010 was weird too.
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It's really more about November and December.
So many legendary gains are made at the end of the year a lot of the time.
Then crash in Jan/Feb.
Unless someone is actively trading BTC, he or she should just ignore it all. Bitcoin, no matter the metric, keep plugging along. Whether it is the doubling you subscribe to, or the stock-to-flow model, they all keep telling the same story.
Bitcoin, over extended periods of time, moves higher and in a big way. Thus, the experienced can trade the volatility for great profits. However, do not be fooled into thinking that volatility means collapse.
With BTC, it does not.
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If I see corporations lining up the block to buy Bitcoin I'll think twice before selling into them.