Save the Date!
Certainly I am getting ahead of myself with this prediction because we still have to slog through September before we get to the good stuff (aka Q4 of 2025) but this potentially is a very exciting time for crypto. Of course in the moment we'd never know because alts have been stagnant for almost the entire year; a hugely demoralizing happenstance.
Maybe those toxic maximalists where actually right!
Maybe Bitcoin really will reign supreme and everything will crash to zero against it! Certainly I don't believe this to be true but considering how it's all played out it becomes harder and harder to deny.
They said that alts would get a lot less love this cycle because all that value is being permalocked into ETFs and corporate treasuries, and thus far that theory seems to be holding weight. Personally I subscribe to "displacement theory" in which it doesn't matter if there are a few big rocks of liquidity that sunk to the bottom of the money lake; those boulders will raise the water level for everyone nonetheless. Unfortunately this theory has yet to materialize.
Soon™
And what's the response to stuff like this?
TOP SIGNALS! TOP SIGNALS EVERYWHERE!
The boy cries wolf
I don't know about you guys but I've been hearing the rabble babble about top signals for the last year straight, and there has been a confirmed top zero times since then. This is also not a valid way to trade profitably. Getting lucky and selling the top is not a viable strategy. We have to find trends, bet on the trends, and lookout for trend reversals.
So what is the trend telling us today?
We are just getting further confirmation that the uptrend has been shattered and we should prepare for further correction as we head onto the worst performing month of the year. Luckily any price point higher than $100k is pretty bullish, despite all the undisciplined degens on social media crying about how it's so over and they have no dry powder left because they've already "bought the dip" 5 times during the 10% from the top to where we are now. It seems that the longer this bull market drags on the more irrational and dumb sounding these people get. No surprises there I guess; business as usual. If we define a dip as 15% we haven't even dipped once yet. Get ahold of yourself people.
However...
One thing I just noticed is the Bitcoin dominance chart, which is a metric that I haven't looked at in months. We finally seem to have fully broken down out of the ascending channel. Will we take the elevator down after climbing the stairs up like is so often the case for charts like this one? That's the plan, Stan!
I will be a little surprised if dominance continues to decline in September but if it does it could be a good signal of the altmarket to come. I more expect a little bit of a recovery here and then another psych-out to the downside during the traditionally key months of October and November. IMO BTC dominance needs to get down to like 35%-40% before the "it's so over" vibes can commence. Of course by the time that happens everyone will be so hyped to the moon the FOMO and GREED will be drowning out all other signals.
Another metric I haven't looked at in months is the liquidation heatmap, which gives us a little insight into potential overleverage and key positions to bust. I would have guessed there was a ton of long leverage to annihilate around the $100k area, but this map would seem to suggest that the area around $100k is the one place where there isn't relative leverage. Interesting.
For the most part this chart shows the bears giving the bulls a bit of a thrashing, especially over the last few weeks. There isn't a lot of short to squeeze but there are still plenty of longs to bust down to $100k. After that... not so much.
Back to the main chart
Even though our first death-cross got locked in a week ago... and the MA(25) will be heading below the trendline soon... it is still impressive that all moving averages are above $100k and thwarting the unit bias narrative. In my opinion this market is going to establish a very stable base next month even if we are trading back at $100k.
I think the best possible outcome here would be a V-shaped poop/scoop down to $99k sometime in September. What I don't want to see is a dip to $100k and then grinding near $100k while cutting into the perceived support there. Slingshot action is much better and implies strength in the face of irrational dumpage.
Tunnel Vision
You can't see the forest from the trees.
The plebs in the trenches can't see anything but the day to day price action in front of them. Today I saw claims of Binance corruption with a deceiving chart that makes it looks like Bitcoin crashed into the dirt when it really only dropped less than 1% during a time in which we should have been expecting a drop anyway. Funny how easy it is to turn someone into a conspiracy theorist when number goes down. It's not nearly as easy on the way up. Entitlement reigns supreme in the Greed Trench.
Conclusion
September is probably going to be pretty not great... and the really annoying thing is that it's going to be hard to justify selling here to buy back in cheaper in a few weeks... even if that ends up being a good play. We are at the point in the cycle where the upside is explosive and can blast anyone to the sidelines. When it happens that person can miss an entire 4-year cycle of upside within a couple of days. It's basically too hard to justify doing anything right now but hold till November and see where we land.
If November does end up being a dud I won't sugarcoat the fact that I'll be pretty disappointed and worried about future price action. Luckily this is not a today-me problem, but as we come closer and closer to the timeframe I've been waiting for... for years... it feels more and more likely that it doesn't happen. Don't think about it just yet; just hodl on and buy the September dip if possible.
This post has been shared on Reddit by @x-rain through the HivePosh initiative.
Does Hive get an Alt season…
Maybe after that race car gets 3rd from last place. 😉
Stahp! It hurts too much to laugh...
Nope, it will not. This was obvious as far back as summer 2024 when hive dumped below 2022 bottom while even the high tier crypto’s that won’t go near 2021 guys, at least went up from 2022 bottom by solid amount. Hive is in a bear market still below 2022 bottom by 38% while Bitcoin is strongly above 100K. It was clear “Alt Season” was not happening this cycle. Instead a clear break in crypto’s and finally not “everything go up” cycle.
!LADY !BBH !PIZZA !ALIVE
Maxis who say everything will go to zero against BTC forget that people will always be greedy, they'll always look for more alpha, so there's always going to be other vehicles they can rotate their money into.
Wouldn't mind a proper alt season though, I guess BTC has a bit to go before we'll that unfold
That doesn't actually stop every asset from going to zero against BTC over time.
The only way an asset doesn't go to zero against BTC is outperforming BTC over multiple cycles...
Which very well may never happen although it certainly could happen and I expect it will eventually.
Very few traders have outperformed simply hodling Bitcoin.
Including myself, by a wide margin.
Okay then maybe my interpretation of "everything going to 0 against Bitcoin" might have been wrong as in me not thinking "going to 0 against Bitcoin eventually". This might actually very well be the the case long-term as you stated, just like, before Bitcoin, pretty much every asset went to zero against gold. The only way to avoid that is by assets that outperform inflation significantly long-term (very long-term).
I told u this summer of 2024 and u called me a fool. Man U change ur tune more often then anyone…
Are you replying to the wrong comment because this thread is a month old and I haven't changed any tunes, especially not in the comment you are replying to.
Maybe you didn't notice that Bitcoin hit an ATH in August 2025?
Ah you must have done a little typo there saying 2024 considering that is not a flex whatsoever.
At this point you pop in like Peter Schiff every single time market sentiment is poor.
This is not a popularity contest.
Buy low sell high is the opposite or foil of a popularity contest.
September is literally the worst time to be declaring bearish victory.
Across all financial markets.
To reiterate my tune:
That has been the message I've been issuing for 3 years.
Perhaps you'd like to link to a comment where I say otherwise instead of a random one regarding Bitcoin dominance.
you are mentally deranged. I won’t drop by ur posts ever again don’t worry. Take care
Amazing take.
I totally believe you.
If the whole market is waiting for it to happen. Is it or should it happen?? I mean, it can't be that easy ... Surely!?
I'd be a lot more worried if retail was talking about it but all they can do is complain about tiny dips from all time highs.
If u followed by market vlogs as early as spring 2024 you’d of heard me say alt season was not happening for 99% of space. Anyone still pushing most these things are going to 2021 all time highs is a fool. finally the space is judging on token not e tire space together. The signs were there, I just looked.
!LADY !BBH !PIZZA !ALIVE
I'm also thinking that Q4 is the answer but. I thought that also in 2021 and hoped for BTC to rise to 100k...
In that same vein I would be pretty surprised if the top of 2025 was less than 2x the top of 2021.
At that level of sustainable growth there doesn't even need to be a bear market.
I'm actually starting to wonder if September is going to surprise us all given how crazy everything else has been this year already.
I hope not as it would be much nicer for things to just effortlessly fall into place according to my own plan, which is of course why this theory is more likely to happen 😁. The FED lowering rates could create some irrational moves; who knows.
Yeah, I have no clue, it just feels like things could go sideways at any given moment.
Some plan. Deny deny deny ur eyes 👀
Good plan 🤣
The level of emotional tilt you are displaying is alarming.
Do you believe these are rational responses?
These knee-jerk reactions and immediate deletions?
Get well soon.
And nope, bitcoin holding strong above 100K while alts crash. I took a load of shit back in 2024 when I was posting here & in discord taking to our hive saying friends 99% of crypto’s would not get close to 2021 highs while Bitcoin will be easily above 100K. It seems like many just won’t believe things counter to what they hold. I’m not very smart, all I did was look at the change in patterns & activity going back to summer 2024. !LADY !BBH !PIZZA !ALIVE
I mean in 2 months historically speaking the rally should be over... Alts haven't made a noteworthy move (with exceptions), but BTC is up from 15k... I just don't see how we can go into a 3 year bear market from these levels (especially for Alts). We'd need like a 6-10x until EOY for the usual pattern and even then it would have been an exceptionally weak cycle. Do you think there is any chance for a delayed Alt peak in 2026? I am putting half of my eggs in that basket, although I don't feel too strongly about it.
It is pretty hard to imagine that a bear market could sting very much when bear markets are the result of irrational greed and leverage flooding the market. Without the greed and overleverage where does that leave us this cycle? It's possible that the next cycle is 100% easy-mode if this one doesn't deliver the pure degeneracy we've seen previously. Especially true if we can cannibalize all the money in random memecoins with fragile communities back into the rest of the altcoin market.
A peak could be delayed as long as the end of Q1... so March 2026, but anything past that I would argue breaks the 4-year cycle. We are quickly approaching the critical timeframe and the market putters along. November is going to be an absolutely pinnacle month to refactor our speculation if we continue to flatline.
There's so much information to be gleaned from November/December price action that speculation now (other than hodl and hope for moon) will be largely irrelevant. Basically just a waiting game right now IMO. There's very little to do.
That's a great way to live. No stress, no worries, no lessons to learn.
Thanks!
Fingers crossed!
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I agree that the altseason is coming!
2025 has been much quieter than anticipated, but that doesn't change the inevitability of this new technology.
Let's see what happens in Q4...
Excellent.
La tan ansiadad ALTseason llegara muy fugaz pero llegara señores...
Like I told u in 2024, 99% of alts not going near All Time Highs from 2021.
If u still are pushing this “just wait two months” nonsense , I want whatever drug ur on 🤣
Remember what u said to me summer 2024? When I said Hive will be lower in a year while Bitcoin is easily above 100K? U mocked his I could even be so dumb. Not looking so stupid now 😂
mmmm Hm and Charlie Kirk is a racist white supremist nazi by the same logic
Perhaps your interpretation of my words is a bigger problem than anything?
Could be.