I mean in 2 months historically speaking the rally should be over... Alts haven't made a noteworthy move (with exceptions), but BTC is up from 15k... I just don't see how we can go into a 3 year bear market from these levels (especially for Alts). We'd need like a 6-10x until EOY for the usual pattern and even then it would have been an exceptionally weak cycle. Do you think there is any chance for a delayed Alt peak in 2026? I am putting half of my eggs in that basket, although I don't feel too strongly about it.
It is pretty hard to imagine that a bear market could sting very much when bear markets are the result of irrational greed and leverage flooding the market. Without the greed and overleverage where does that leave us this cycle? It's possible that the next cycle is 100% easy-mode if this one doesn't deliver the pure degeneracy we've seen previously. Especially true if we can cannibalize all the money in random memecoins with fragile communities back into the rest of the altcoin market.
A peak could be delayed as long as the end of Q1... so March 2026, but anything past that I would argue breaks the 4-year cycle. We are quickly approaching the critical timeframe and the market putters along. November is going to be an absolutely pinnacle month to refactor our speculation if we continue to flatline.
There's so much information to be gleaned from November/December price action that speculation now (other than hodl and hope for moon) will be largely irrelevant. Basically just a waiting game right now IMO. There's very little to do.