I Have My Own Conspiracy Theory Regarding the FUD Out of China.
The last few weeks have been full of uncertainty for those of us who own and trade Crypto Currency.
1. China Bans ICO's. True as far as I can tell.
2. China Orders the Closure of Exchanges. True.
3. China Bans Bitcoin. False.
What is Happening?
China and the PBOC are doing their best to protect the Renmimbi (Yuan). Now China also wants to be at the forefront of Blockchain technology. It appears to me that they want the technology but not the decentralized aspects. So I have come to a hypothesis.
On October 18th the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China kicks off. During this meeting the Chinese Communist party officials will decide the direction of the government for the next five years. Since everything China does is centrally planned it will be interesting to see who is selected. Could we have somebody close to Blockchain technology selected?
I also suspect that there will be meetings regarding Bitcoin and Blockchain. I don't think for a second that China is going to give up the future cash cow that is Blockchain technology. We see a sharp increase in investment by its neighbors Japan and South Korea. Why would they want to miss out on the party?
My guess is that shortly after the meeting we will more clearly understand the direction the Chinese government will take regarding Bitcoin, Blockchain and Crypto Currrency.
Where I Have Decided to Park Some Bitcoin.
If you follow crypto currencies you know that NEO is positioning itself as the Ethereum of China. Currently NEO is more than 50% off of its all time high with all of the FUD out of China. This has given me a second chance to buy NEO.
If China decides for some reason to pick one Crypto Currency to favor, NEO would be the best fit. For me this is pure speculation but it is one that I believe could pay off huge if I am right.
The Rise of Decentralized Exchanges.
Yes the exchanges are closing in China. This means there will be a rush to decentralization. We already have the Bitshares DEX and a few others but more will surely come to market after this news. It is time to shift our use of exchanges like Poloniex and Bittrex to the decentralized exchanges.
Bitcoin Might Fall Further.
This is a possibility. Regular folks are nervous right now. The problem is that institutions are buying like mad. This means that the institutions we despise are trying their best to take control of the market we love. If you don't want a few large institutions to decide the direction of our market then we need to make a stand.
My worry is that the community of Crypto-Anarchists that built this economy are being pushed aside by institutions and governments. We can fight back by Hodling and using decentralized technology.
NEO Co-Founder Da Hongfei
Sound smart to me
you have to be aware of the new NEO. that generates gas, or that has the same ecosystem.
The transition between Crypto and fiat currency is the weak link in the system, and thats why its getting attacked right there. A virtual asset that only has value in the virtual space is meaningless.
Its like saying "I have a gun to protect myself. To prevent that someone is taking it from me, I deposited it in a bank vault."
nice info and tips @hilarski, these tips are real help for all crypto traders and steemians. thanks alot
a very great theory @hilarski. good post :-)
@hilarski,
China has a smart plan and I was thinking WTF NEO is showing uptrend while China ban exchanges! Now I got the answer! Thanks dude!
Cheers~
Bitcoin can't be banned of stopped its the blockchain's power and decentralization china promoted bitcoin as well by this ban and FUD
@hilarski - oh my goodness, this is a very valuable article for me. Thank you decided to share with steemians. Love your predictions. Therefore, I wish to ReSteem your post.
+W+ [UpVoted & ReSteemed]
great bitcoin information, thanks for sharing
Very nice @hilarski
This is the reason it is said that we should not put all our eggs in one basket! If we had not let bitcoin get all the investment in crypto then its crash would not have affected every other currency! We need to rectify this and start making investments in other crypto's.
At this time that markets are so volatile with true and false news, you have to have nerves of steel and try to buy the best currencies that have prospects of growth towards the rise. Hold the one we have.
NEO was my thought as well for China, reading as how centralized it is and the hype it already got + the applications for in the future... It's not really something I prefer to invest in myself as I don't stand behind the currency itself... Decentralized is my future! :)
I hear ya, I will bet on it to profit.
If you wanna bet on NEO, GAS might be an even better one.
bet 4 it <3
just hodl hodl 😎😎 till all the currencies went up
what's this going on with Bitcoin
This seems like a well-reasoned and accurate analysis. While I'm sure it'd be less stressful to have our favorite cryptocurrencies rise in an orderly hockey stick fashion I'm glad you get a second chance to buy NEO at prices 50% off it's high.
I think adding Neo is a smart move that could pay off in huge multiples just a year or two down the road as even China will have to accept decentralization with KYC/AML. I have not sold any from taking position at $5. Just yesterday I added more around $18. ETH, NEO, DASH are tops in my opinion. All these coins are paying or will pay out dividends in the future. Its a future cash cow. We can probably just live out the crypto dividends in a few years w/o having to sell any if it gets mass adopted.
If I am right I will take my NEO and Stake them and happily accept the Gas dividends.
Yes, generating gas in NEO is so easy in the NEON wallet. Over time staking dividends can really add up. I think its the new mining. ETH will have it too once Casper is released. It really makes me want to HODL even more!
@hedge-x its great to know that ETH will have this type of dividends when being Hold, this will make adoption even faster. @gold84
that would be great i think so !
If the political system of China may change, there will be possible good effects on crpto world, because govt will never be give up the sweet ness of foreign exchange. I think you are absolutely right about the future of NEO, thanks for sharing such a valuable information and your thoughts, you are the Savior for us in the time of emergency. Thanks friend, have a great time ahead.
Tweeted
Disclaimer: I am just a bot trying to be helpful.
It's a very impressive post
I just see this as China's loss. Bitcoin will keep growing!
Very interesting theory @hilarski - I personally feel that Bitcoin has a floor of $3,000 and can't really seeing it go any lower, but you have put a good argument forward and have made some interesting points. I've actually started a Steemit series with @alexmavor that look at the latest topics of the week. Would love for you to check it out and get your thoughts. I'm posting it shortly, so would love for you to keep an eye out for it!
Absolutely true hilarski, we are crypto, not institutions and governments, we need fight for our right to be free and decentralized
I am very curious how this will all turn out :)
That's not a "conspiracy theory" it's a logic, well thought out, prediction. 🤓
I agree 1000%. Jamie Dimon didnt spout off this week because he is trying to protect innocent people from losing money. He is threatened by the technology and wants it in his hands. BTC is being bought up by the truckload, I believe, by the likes of Dimon and his cronies.
BTC is not going anywhere (it terms of elimination). Even Dimon realizes that. Hell he even stated he thought it could go to $100K before being eliminated.
Think about this...the head of one of the largest banks in the world, one of the architects of the world wide economic crash due to the MBS/CDO scheme, just stated that it we could see a 25X increase in Bitcoin....and the market crashed?
What is going through people's mind?
I took the opportunity to add and will add some more if we see another pullback.
NEO is not The One. But, they may be china's new crypto-currency. However, when it is taken over by china, they will tend towards locking it down. Centralizing it. And this may make doing anything but buying chinese goods all but impossible.
I don't know how well block-chains will do in captivity. It appears that they lose much of their robustness, but does this make them more susceptible to attacks?
Right now I am thinking about possibilities and this is one of the scenarios that could play out. I sure hope it does not get bogged down with centralization.
Hodl!
Great article! I have some bitshares and think 'decentralized exchange' looks pretty darn good right about now (my funk soul brother!)
amigo #resteemia at your service
let's build decentralized exchanges. you can do it mate. nice article @hilarski
ReSteemia
'UpVoted ReSteemed Commented'
fantastic post and suggestions @hilarski sir, yes "we can fight back by Hodling and using decentralized technology". thanks for sharing
Love to read your analysis. I think China will go for Centralized Cryptocurrency. I don't know what might be the format. But there might have something that government can control. They believe in One Party, One Currency and everything one. NEO may be the One. Thank you for your insightful post.
Yup, that is my bet. It makes no sense to start from scratch. NEO is already positioned for success.
I chose the "wait" position, time will tell.
Yeah i hear things like this all over the place. Hard to know what the truth is.
very good post
Why are you using my photos as comments on my posts? That is just weird.
Que the stalker music
She's so pretty <3
true voice in the steemit world.
thats the same I think - i hope we are right with NEO, even if I don't have so many I would be more than happy :-)
Nice post @hilarski! I also think that Neo will be made the main public blockchain of China. Keep in mind that the team of Neo / Da Hongfei are pro government and that they work together with the government on Onchain, a government / large companies blockchain. This should give Neo so much advantage in many ways.
Anyone interested in forming a team for the hackaton?
I think also that the market is quite nervous. If the next Chinese exchange will drop bitcoin we have the same drop again. But as you can see the price recovers very quickly. A lot of people buy at lower prices.
That's an interesting take and if the institutions are trying to control by buying, the China FUD may be orchestrated to lower the prices for them. Aaaaugh. Who knows what's really going on. Maybe they're all in cahoots.
This post has been ranked within the top 50 most undervalued posts in the second half of Sep 16. We estimate that this post is undervalued by $33.22 as compared to a scenario in which every voter had an equal say.
See the full rankings and details in The Daily Tribune: Sep 16 - Part II. You can also read about some of our methodology, data analysis and technical details in our initial post.
If you are the author and would prefer not to receive these comments, simply reply "Stop" to this comment.
One thing never changes with crypto. It's always changing. Expect the unexpected and evolve or die
Hey @hilarski this is interesting stuff. Keep posting and I'll keep reading :)
Good Luck
Loved your analysis.Keep sharing they are really helpful.
the theory is great and we can only say what will be the outcome with time .
Using decentralized technology is sounding better and better.
I couldn't agree more with most of these observations/interpretations/speculations!! There's no way that China would miss out on the promise of Blockchain and this is a calculated move to decide the direction it wants to take. I also agree about NEO :)