People throw out all kinds of numbers for the price of bitcoin by the end of 2018, but what are those based on?
Over the past couple years it has become very popular to make price predictions on bitcoin for the end of the year.
Surprisingly, in recent years people have undershot what actually happened.
Last year, people were saying bitcoin would end the year at $2k, $5k, or even $10k and that seemed pretty optimistic considering prices were hovering around $300-$600 at the time.
Low and behold, prices hit $20k, and the rest is pretty much history.
What can we expect this year?
We have seen predictions of $15k, $25k, $50k, etc... but how do they come up with these numbers?
A few of them are pulling numbers out of thin air, but some of them base those predictions off of past trends as well as the cost of mining.
If we look a logarithmic chart of bitcoin dating back to its genesis, we can see that there has been a fairly defined trend that prices have followed.
Basically, it started from the left and has slanted fairly significantly up and to the right:
Based on this trend, one would expect to see the price of bitcoin around $21,000 by the end of 2018.
Looking out one more year, one would expect prices to be around $67,500 at the end of 2019 based on the same trend.
Those are some pretty impressive numbers, but those are exactly the numbers that Pantera Capital is predicting for the end of 2018 and 2019, based primarily off of the trend line I just showed you.
(Source: https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@bizon18/head-of-pantera-capital-now-is-the-right-time-to-buy-bitcoin)
What about a price prediction not solely based on trends?
Tom Lee of Fundstrat Global Advisors says that they like to make price predictions based on trends as well as the cost of mining.
Prices in other commodities are often determined by their cost of mining, why shouldn't bitcoin be any different?!
According to Tom, the fully loaded average cost of mining will be around $9,000 by the end of 2018.
Bitcoin has historically traded for around 2.5x the cost of mining, which would give us a price target of around $22,500 by the end of the year.
Tom rounds up and gets us to his $25k year end call.
Using that same model he also came up with a price target of $90,000 by the end of 2020 due to the increasing cost in mining.
Something interesting to take note of is that the price of bitcoin often trades much higher than 2.5x the cost of mining during bullish periods, which means Tom was making his predictions off of a base case...
In other words, he thinks it hits those prices at a minimum.
(Image Source: https://vi.bitday.com/post/tom-lee-cua-fundstrat-global-advisors-de-xuat-mua-bitcoin-ngay/)
Conclusions:
Using both historical trends and the cost of mining as a price predictor we get wildly higher prices for bitcoin within the next 6 months as well as the next few years.
Historical trends indicate prices likely hit $21k by the end of this year while the cost of mining indicates we likely hit around $25k by the end of this year.
Whichever method you subscribe to, we get roughly a triple from current levels in about 5 months.
Not sure about you, but I sure like those returns.
Stay informed my friends.
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You and John McAfee!
Seems Tough but we can't say anything in this case as Bitcoin always Comes up beyond expectations..!!
It's almost one of those things where if it gains enough popularity to get to something like $100k, it's probably going to $1 million because it will mean it has established itself as a global currency.
25k is my bet
I'm more conservative with $12k.
😂😂😂
Hope This comes True
ASAP
50K 50K 50K
💰😂💰
By the end of 2018?
Why not? 😂😂😂. Just dreaming
Hey, I won't complain!
Hahahahahaha... No.
12'000$ - 16'000$ At Max.
I am more in your ball park as well. I think it is going to take more time still for things to reset before we have another parabolic move.
@jrcornel The bitcoin price crossed the $8,000 mark earlier this week, supported by a massive spike in buy volumes across all major cryptocurrency exchanges. 𝐒𝐨 𝐈 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐤 𝐢𝐭 𝐜𝐚𝐧 𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐢𝐥𝐲 𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐜𝐡 𝟐𝟓𝟎𝟎𝟎$ 𝐛𝐲 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐞𝐧𝐝 𝐨𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐲𝐞𝐚𝐫. But we can only give predictions,actually no one knows where it will go.𝐖𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐝𝐨 𝐲𝐨𝐮 𝐬𝐚𝐲?
I think between $10k-$15k personally, though I could see the case for $20k-$25k as well. An ETF needs to be approved for those numbers though.
@jrcornel yes, your'e right
The problem is adoption is not linear.
And we are moving into the early adopter phase.
I am fairly sure we will hit $100,000 bitcoin by the end of this year.
Or, in other words, we need to add to that logarithmic chart above the loss of purchasing power of the dollar, which will make it a log-log chart.
Cryptos are going to become so valuable, that everyone will be mining on whatever they have. Thus the mining chart is going to see a huge influx of difficulty, that is not accounted for.
And i mean, cryptos will be sooo valuable, as in, it will buy groceries when your (insert fiat) won't.
Well if bitcoin were to hit $100k within the next 5 months, as you say. You are right, I would hate to see what the dollar can buy at that point. Sounds like you are calling for a fiat collapse as soon as this year?!
I do not feel we are going to see a fiat collapse... we will see more slow burn. (I expect 12-20% inflation in food prices), but i do expect some banks to have big problems.
It is so really hard to see. By all old measures, we should have had a fiat collapse already. But, something is holding it together, and something is keeping cryptos from getting squashed. Slowed down, yes, but squashed, no.
But really, what will be the big game changer is when the huge wave of stores accepting cryptos happens. That will change all of the graphs.
That is likely true. I imagine that is why they use a logarithm chart in the first place, to help smooth it out a bit. The price increases are certainly not linear, though it was interesting to hear Tom mention that bitcoin tends to trade roughly 2.5x the cost of mining since its inception. That would imply that investors are not speculating as blindly as some think. There is some rational to when they buy and sell.
That was my number exactly lol. See my comment about the gallup poll that just came out.
I doubt that we see a bubble-like bulls run like last year. My guess is that we finish 2018 between 10k and 15k max.
Those are exactly the numbers I am thinking as well. My numbers are mostly pulled out of thin air, but something between $10k-$15k is exactly what I am thinking come December of this year.
wow great your post keep it up
NEVER PREDICT CRYPTO IT MIGHT HURT.
Especially when you put money on the line to back your predictions.
Especially when you
Put money on the line to
Back your predictions.
- jrcornel
I'm a bot. I detect haiku.
Ohh Thats Really Wonderful
As We were only dependent on the ETF that we haven't Noticed This aspect.
You Brought Something Historical which Can Make us To keep believing in the Bitcoin
Thank you Sir
@jrcornel
You are welcome.
Thank you for sharing this information with us, it’s very helpful.
@jrcornel we can expect easily around $25k. But if ETF get approved then even $50k is possible.
I am not sure $25k will be easy. Without an ETF approval my personal thought is that it will be tough to be much higher than $10k-$15k.
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Looks interesting.
Great post!
Yeah I would love for bitcoin to hit 21k or 25k, then McAfee wouldn't have to eat his dick on live tv =P
Well he needs $1 million by 2020 right?
Yeah but a little helps, if it upswings then his chances of having to eat his dick is lower =P
Haha yes, that is true.
I reckon if I invest in a bitcoin now, I should be able to get an early retirement within ten years :). Definitely a much better investment than a 401k, that's for sure!
How about you buy bitcoin in your 401k?! :)
Wow! This is exciting! There is nothing else out there like crypto. Nothing 🙌🏻
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Maybe some old penny stocks. :)
25k is reasonable as people are more aware of bitcoin and the adoption has bettered this year.
Anything more I don’t mind😄
I personally think around $12k, but we will see.
Consensus is generally wrong. The Market tends to buck the consensus. So with all this hype, all these jubilant predictions, I think 50k usd by year's end ridiculous, 25k reasonable (because of the fundamentals), but somewhere closer to 18k likely.
I could see that as well. Considering we are struggling to hold $8k currently, $18k sounds pretty darn good to me.
I feel like there is too much greed for Bitcoin to get too much over 25k this year. There's a big possiblity it will do it but I think it will come down just as fast. My guess is people want to cash out at the prices they missed out on at it's peak
I agree. There are so many people still sitting on bitcoin mined or bought much cheaper than even the current price. We need them to unload most of those to people who are buying now for there to really be a next leg up. Otherwise, as you mention, they will be dumping into any rally.
I gave you an upvote on your post! Please give me a follow and I will give you a follow in give return and possible future votes.
Thanks in advance.
It's hard to follow all the news about Bitcoin. In my opinion the funds, capital groups, etc. that use Bitcoin in their portfolios are a big tell for expectations. What will really take this over the top is the Bitcoin ETF. The CBOE ETF will address all of the concerns the SEC has brought up. It will be hard to continue denying ETF's when this was released after last weeks denial.... Almost immediately after the release of the SEC’s statement, SEC commissioner Hester Peirce expressed her disappointment with the decision of the agency to reject the bitcoin ETF filed by the Winklevoss twins, noting that Bitcoin, as an asset, is regulated and matured enough to be worthy of US markets.
I'm thinking $62,000 is reachable if the ETF happens on Sept. 21st and either way I believe $500k will happen in 2020.
Nice comment. Yes I believe that an ETF is likely at some point as well. If not the VanEck one, it will be another one soon. The momentum plus the FOMO and prices could get pretty high.
McAfee is glad to hear those positive words.
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Yes he is.
I say $100k by the end of the year or shortly after. I'm basing it off of this article. It says 2% of investors now own bitcoin but that 27% are "intrigued," meaning that with a little prodding they would buy. If we get a spooked market in the next 6 months, which is almost a certainty, at least for a brief time, followed by a flight to safety (BTC), the remainder of those 27% will pile in. Given the amount of players in the game now, extrapolating the proportional price with 13.5x the players gives us roughly $100k.
In fact, if we see such a hyper run, the price will probably overshoot that number by quite a bit then settle back down to it. If the last run was any indicator of how far it would overshoot, it could end up being twice that at the peak. I'm just guessing of course, but it's fun, so I'll throw my hat in the ring.
Hey at least you have some rational behind your guessing! :) I hope you are right, though.
crypto price guessing. As much fun as darts. And probably just as reliable. ^_^
I just don't know what to do if bitcoin gets to $200,000 this year. What do you trade into?
That is a good point. If bitcoin goes to $200k, it's likely because it has emerged as a global currency, likely at the expense of many fiat currencies. If bitcoin gets that high, there is probably a good reason.
I'd trade 20% for a basket of my favorite cryptos before rolling them around and 15-30% for fiat (I'm going long on Yuan), cash out 15%, move 25% into precious metals (to catch the new year uptick in gold), and sit on the rest.
Good question
Very nice explaination one of member is commented in this post for reaching this price BITCOIN need ETF approval I would like to inform you through my opinion thats is Bitcoin not needs ETF approval ETF needs BITCOIN approval.. just they are playing game to decrease price..... Its my personal opinion, I'm sure shot bitcoin will touch ATH... lets see what will happen... cross finger....
#Jrcornel your explaination is very nice and mostly your written in english so easy and simple to understand.
Where's my 10k August target! I'm still waiting anxiously. I made a bet at the first bottom this year. Now 4 months on the target it in sight!
I think you have a very good chance. Especially if something comes out about the ETF.
Not the Wozniak ETF, though
Judging from the price action currently, I'd say the SEC's response to the VanEck ETF has leaked...
Look at this trough! Bears broke 50 day MA amidst all the bitcoin hype on CNBC and good press generally, and the good - no, Fantastic! - news about the regulatory attitude likely to be taken in the US. Bitcoin price just has to be about to spring upward significantly.
well if it reach its all time high that would be really a big achievement and after than there there is a clear sky
I think it reachea 25k this year. New ATH.
I hope you are right.