It's not likely but it's still on the table yes. Just not likely
I think the current market and sentiment show that the market values BTC more than 3K. But a black swan event or other stuff could still bring us down.
But yes I agree that breaking 6.5K was an important indicator, I did buy in then as well.
Current rally is much too fast for my liking also!! I find myself not trusting it at all.
BUT.. here's the kicker: What if that distrust is the essence of denial?
I can remember the same disbelief back in 2017 when we first broke $7K because back then BTC was supposed to top and dip again. Instead I watched in disbelief, 'waiting for the dip' all the way up to 20K
In hindsight it was not a bad move to wait for the dip since we gave away all those gains in the year after.
Still, it shows that BTC is capable of crazy, crazy moves. When BTC does move you don't want to miss it. Last time I was stuck in ETH since it appeared to break $400 for the first time. Instead BTC went waaaaay higher and alts suffered. I lost so much BTC value that period, it's devastating! Even if I'm up a lot in fiat terms.
It takes about one of these major miscalculations to become a true HODLer, lol. You just can't tell for sure, and the risk of being wrong is just too big. The only safe way is to hodl and enjoy the rollercoasterride.
'sides... even if we go to 0 someday, the rollercoaster ride itself was worth it for all the entertainment value it gave me.
It's not an investment, it's an adventure! ⛰️🌲🧚🍄🦄🏕️
:D
I think that distrust IS the essence of denial. Well, FUD in general is. I'm quite happy to watch BTC go vertical, but I know that the market isn't. I don't distrust BTC, I distrust the weak hands which I know are out there. I think I've shown that I'll never be the guy who panic sells first, though I may be the idiot sitting on that roller-coaster that has gone to zero!
My problem with BTC at the moment is merely the shape of the curve: for where we were in the market it shot up too soon and too steeply. Nothing stays outside of the Bollinger Bands for too long - NOTHING! Anyway, the climbing has calmed down a bit and things are looking better.
I also think we could be building for another climb (or a dip, who knows?) I think that if you see the dip below $6k as an anomaly then the charts look a whole lot better, perhaps that is the perspective from which I should be doing my TA.