While some people talk about a Bitcoin price between $6,000 and $10,000 in the coming weeks, I am a bit more conservative.
Sure, this is Bitcoin so everything is possible. We are nearing the all-time high of nearly $5000 USD. It's certainly possible this psychological level will be breached in the coming days. If it happens, Bitcoin will again receive more media attention which will create more FOMO whereby the price might go even higher.
But we are not there yet...
I think a Bitcoin price of over $5000 is too early yet. We should not forget that the Bitcoin price has already increased 390% since the start of this year and we are currently 671% higher than one year ago. We only have to go back to January this year when Bitcoin was being traded below $800 dollar. The Bitcoin price on October 10, 2016 was just $615. Unbelievable!
Here's a possible scenario:
According to most traders altcoins are under pressure right now, because people sell it for Bitcoin to receive free Bitcoin Gold and Bitcoin2X. It seems a logical reason, but I'm not really sure. Bitcoin Gold will fork on October 25 and Bitcoin2X around November 18th. Will altcoins remain under sell pressure until the two forks? For so long?
How I trade
I 'HODL' most of my Bitcoin for years, but I plan to use a part between $4900 and $5000 to buy the SBD (Steem Blockchain Dollar). The current SBD price is 0.00019000 BTC which equals a BTC price of $5263 (1 / 0.00019 = 5263). A nice opportunity to sell Bitcoin for a higher price in my opinion.
I have done a study of the supply and demand for bitcoin over the next 12 months.
The conclusion is that the demand will be more than last year, and the supply will be lower than last year.
The price of bitcoin will have to be much higher so that each buyer buys less coins. Otherwise, there simply won't be enough coins to share around.
There are several price scenarios, one of which is that the bitcoin price could reach. The most outrageous scenario I see - but still with about 30% probability, is that the price this time next year could be $98'630.94.
You can read the full post here
In the short run, I agree that it looks like there is some resistance around current levels ($4850 to $5000), which will need to be broken before we shoot to $6'000.
$98,000 though? C'mon MAN!
2 days ago, there was a, 30% probability of $98’000. Price was $4’000. But today bitcoin blasted through $5’000, It’s at 5’250 now. Probability is now 35%
In the year 2035?
Very interesting observation in regards to SBDs. This would be a very shrewd and fruitful move if indeed BTC does not keep moving upwards. I too see this current move as an alt sell off trying to capture as much bitcoin gold as possible. It will very interesting to see how much fomo plays a part in the btc price over the next couple of weeks.
Apparently, Russia just Banned Crypto Exchanges. What kind of impact will that have? Thats 3 countries now that have banned Crypto.
It's not true, so far all crypto exchanges is accessable without VPN (l live in Russia).
no impact at all, we don't have crypto exchanges located in Russia
It is true that they are now banned. You can look up the news.
I'm on Bittrex now, official russian imternet provider Beeline, no VPN, direct connection.
They banned exchanges, not the currency. This is to prevent Mt Gox from happening on their soil especially as they mull legislation making cryptocurrency legal tender in their territory.
Totally agreeing with you @penguinpablo.
People tend to replicate what happened, they all seem to think that Bitcoin Gold is going to be like Bitcoin Cash => Very profitable.
I don't think it will: Look at BCH right now, it is struggling because Bitcoing Gold is coming. You think this pattern is replicable how many times?
Beware Investors, don't get burn by this new Pump.
Quality projects are the key to have a good return.
All Bitcoin forks can end up cannibalizing each others (BCH is already down to $315 from ATH $900) and other weak altcoins and ICOs. However, one of the forks (I believe only Bitcoin) will come out as winner, others will be struggle and strong altcoins will flourish there after.
Yes BCH isn’t doing so well right now. I would imagine it’s likely we will see the same thing happen after the next fork (a brief pump in th price of the newly spawned version of bitcoin then a dump).
Bitcoin kills itself with these separations and I'm 100% sure that one day it's going to die out completely, in favor of cryptos holding real value, like Ether, IOTA or even Monero.
Hi @vlemon - I appreciate your insight. In the grand scheme of things I wouldn't say Bitcoin Cash is "struggling." While it's down more than 50% from its highs, it's #4 in Market Cap of every coin onthe planet and sits at a $5.2 Billion market cap. To me that's not really struggling considering it was literally created "out of thin air" 2 months ago! For people holding 1 Bitcoin at the end of July, their BTC moved up from under $2500 to currently $4800 plus they have Bitcoin Cash worth $315. That's more than doubling your value simply "holding" a Bitcoin for 2 months! Realistically, that kind of rise every 2 months shouldn't be considered easily replicable on a consistent basis. Personally, I'm going to be holding Bitcoin no matter what over the long haul. Many people seemed to get stressed when there are "forks" and "splits" but in reality these new coins that are generated for holders of Bitcoin are just becoming what I'm calling "cryptodividends" and are essentially a bonus to holders of Bitcoin. When the markets are more perfected on a global level, the value of the "dividend" would get deducted from the price of the Bitcoin the moment after it's issued to the holders of Bitcoin, but the markets are there yet, so essentially the owners of Bitcoin are just getting a bonus. It will be interesting to watch how this unfolds and what the value becomes for these next cryptodividends that will be issued in November. I'm now following you and and upvoted. Hope you will follow me for original content and news about Blockchain, Bitcoin, Cryptocurrency and ICOs. Cheers! @thoughtchain
Thank you for the reply @thoughtchain.
Steemit crashed during my comment and I am too lazy to write it all again.
I don't really agree with you. Forks and Splits are bad for cryptos in my opinion as they show the speculation and can help people to call it a bubble.
Then, when you have 1 BTC trading at $3000 before the fork, there is no economic/financial reason that after the fork you get 1BTC at $4500 and a BCH at $500.
You call it dividend, I call it speculation and crazyness.
If it was a dividend, as in the Stock Market when you get a 1$ dividend, the share price decrease by the same amount. Split then? If a company splits, after the split the Market Cap of both entities is quite the same (for a few days at least).
I'll see you around ;)
I don't think this Easy Fork Profit will last because it is just fake as the BCH price is showing right now.
And I don't think Bitcoin forks hold any quality.
I think that on the long term, all of them are going to have a steep and constant decline. Currently, they have value because of the "name" of Bitcoin, some sort of brand recognition that brings trust.
The crypto market is extremely volatile, after all, and people are often afraid of the unknown.
As long as blockchain becomes part of out everyday lives, Bitcoin Cash, Gold and all the likes are going to be deemed useless, IMHO.
Hmm, why not invest in Steem instead of SBD?
I use the SBD as a hedge against a possible falling Bitcoin price in the short term. On the long term I would invest in Steem of course :)
Ah, I see. Thanks for the clarification :)
Thank You Jimmy... I agree with Your analysis and appreciate You sharing Your thoughts & experience.
Cheers !!
Interesting prediction, yes, you are definitely conservative. I will definitely keep an eye on your analyses. Also, good luck.
Thanks @penguinpablo for posting about this -- great insight! I'm now following you and resteemed and upvoted. Hope you will follow me for original content and news about Blockchain, Bitcoin, Cryptocurrency and ICOs. Cheers! @thoughtchain
Thank u for the article. It was interesting to me!
i think we are n for a massive dumb.. i think we are gonna see some lower prices
come as we move in on 2018 then come January we will see price rally back up.
"The Bitcoin price on October 10, 2016 was just $615."
Touche! Yes, it's amazing. Thanks for sharing!
I think a little correction is healthy. We'll see. :)
I just started investing real cash into BTC. I bought some BTC and converted it to steem.. then I left some cash in for BTC.. Current market I am a head by a dollar on the BTC but it honestly has only been 28 hours or so... and I really didn't invest much. I see this keep rising. I think I'm gonna convert my Steem back to BTC soon!
Oh great. I agree with you. Maybe bitcoin will continue to increase. But I have to learn a lot about this from you. Thanks for the great predictive information. Success for all of us
Been selling some bitcoins and buying alt coins as well.
If we get a dip to around $4200 before end of the month, I might buy some back.
I think $10k price will be hit after the next halving.
I think right now is the best moment to but alt-coins, or even after fork and quickly trade some BTC to alts. The FUD environment created by BTCgold will lower the price of all alts. We also need to consider that all cryptocurrency (the good ones) keep increasing over time as BTC also rises.
SBD mechanism is not transparent enough to my opinion
Thanks for this considerable analysis! A few minutes ago I had a conversation with a young pretty lady, who was very interested in crypto investing. Finally she decided to buy ether instead of bitcon. Perhaps she is more clever than many other investors. I think she will follow your advice without having read this post.
good shout @penguinpablo !
agree with that. I was chatting with someone this morning (mainstream guy, quite high up the food chain) said he thought bitcoin was finished !! I told him this morning was a price high !
The general public have absolutely no idea. (Yet) and when you mention BlockChain technology and most people's eyes just go blank..
I think the downward pressure on alts will continue through November until sg2 is over but it's a good time to get the scoops out and pick some low hanging fruit..
question is
where to put your bitcoin to take advantage of high sell off ?
Simple point bitcoin will increase in price as long as you hold on to it. I'm not selling mine till we hit 50k + ;)
Looking good BTC but what about Steem?
Good ...That you buy steem... steem is soon up too :)
Thank you for such a good post. I'm still in a process of accumulating as SBD as I can in order to buy Bitcoin in the near future.
I managed to grab some SBD at 0.00018 ($5500). I thought it was a cheeky order but it got filled on Bittrex yesterday. If Bitcoin does hit $5500. Great. I'm planning to take profit at that price anyway.
SBD is great to trade (at the right price) in uncertain times like this.
It's hard for me to believe that BTC won't fall a lot.
Not an expert, I admit, but these above $4k values are just insane. Even the smallest doubt on behalf of investors can make it pop.
Am I wrong?
Please check my Elliott Wave Theory, would be interested in oppinions
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@breza/elliott-wave-theory-predicts-correction-on-btcusd
Altcoins have stiull not even recovered from the last fork! A lot of people stiull have Bitcoin Cash stucj in Jaxx wallets and coinbase and other services that have not "released' the Bitcoin cash yet, (with coinbase u dont have the private keys with jaxx u do but its still a huge risk to mess with them to manually get the Bcash and Jaxx twitter warns us all not to touch our Bitcoins and takes 2 months and no bitcoin cash yet) And coinbase is telling users they cant get their Bcash till JANUARY
(hah also Bitcoin Cash people apparently HATE when you call it Bcash which is a red flag when you cant even cal something by its actual bname, and in crypto world everyone uses acronyms and they arent a sign or respect of disrespect the bitcoin doesnt fucking care what uyou call it, you could call bitcoin Shitcoin and it wouldnt care the price would keepo going up and so peope;l into Bcash shouldnt care what we call it, and it IS caled Bitcoin cash and Bcashis just shroter, and its also not the original bitcoin because itsjust not or if it was they would be fordking bitcoin gold and segwit2x off of bitcoin cash and not bitcoiun core liek tehy are gonna do! haha
Also the bitcoin cash seems like it will help the causie ofbitcoin core, when gold and segwit2 come out now they wont be confusing to bitcoin userts, it wont seem like theres a "split it will be obvious they they are a;l just altcoins diverging off the main path, but since the main path is stil going strong why change? its like a cheap trick that just wont work, and its lame top think that would hacve ever worked, lol why would we all switch to using some centralized crypto currency like bitcoin segwit2x controlled by a tiny group of people who are pushing for it? haha like seriously i NOW bitcoin is so big and somany people running nodes and miners that its At least Already spread out all ovr thw rodl While Segitw2x will be focused in teh hands of a tiny minoroty, and who teh hell wats that?
Anyway I almost fell for this dream vision that segwit2x would be some faste cheaper high tech bitcoin, but i realize thats easier said than done first of all and second of all Bitcoin does NOTNEED a hard fork to help it d something ithas already been able to do!!!!
Fuckingf Bitcoin core was able to do fast and super cheap trasnactions for YEARS! it doesnt ned a FORK to fuckin help it go BACK to whats its ALREADY been CAPABLE of doinG! and the network congestion is not an excuse! we haveplenty of pay,enty processor son thos planet, and theers no real reason we need to expoerience slow transaction times and high miner fees if we can just upgrde and scale and i believe they shoul at least TRY and i bet when they DO try scaling witha sopfytfork we WILl see some lowered fees! and i think that we also will realize that as long as more peopel start Mining then we can actualy lower the fees by way of competing with miners charging such high fees! anyone can set up a miner and even if it costs more for elctricity than u make in bitcoins, u can still Mine Bitcoins and loose money doing it JUST to HOLD the bitcoins which WILL make uip for the lost electricity profit one dsy! AND the bitcoin mining u can do even at a loss will help you compete with for example, the chinese! If a wealthy American wanted to do so, he could buold a bitcoin mining centr the biggest in tehw orld and even manufacture his own asic miners and he 9or she) could focus all of the Bitcoin Hash power back into the USA and that coiuld also be a big PR move for bitcoin, and more nations could do this and it would HELP decentralize bitcoin more!!!!
This is inevitable as moe nations start mining! as more places mine bitcoin even for smal profiut margins, we will see miner fees go down!
also i have a feeling after Bgold and Bsegwit2x coins hardfork coins come out then they wil at first go iup a lil then CRASH and come down HARd no n will want to give segwit2x coin ANY support LOl and then we will end up with them dying and bitcoin core turning on moe miners and lowering fes and making transaction time go faster and it wil be amazing LOL
not sure can it hit to 7k by xmas