Nice post.
I'd be curious if there is a financial comparison to a 'Hard-Fork'.
A company breaking up? Selling off a piece?
How do markets normally react in those scenarios? Doubling down on the valuable piece while abandoning the perceived weaker piece?
Anything that brings a large amount of uncertainty with it in the markets would be a good point to start with. The replacement of a long tenured CEO for a fairly established company comes to mind as somewhat comparable.
More often than not, this would lead to a bearish outlook short-term, but can often lead to more growth in the future. A lot of the market in these type of situations will either lighten positions or sideline themselves to gauge market reaction to the event(s). However, it's the whales of market that really determine where it goes and who knows how they're going to treat this or how much, if any, inside information that they're working with.
The big players might have already loaded up for a push beyond $3,000.00. Time will tell.