Bitcoin and technical analyses

in #bitcoin2 years ago

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Applying TA (technical analyses) to a bitcoin chart cant be fun for the whole family, but it isn't without it's differences to normal stocks or forex charts.

Bitcoin has two major features that make it a slight oddity to normal TA:

  • Bitcoin is finite
    -- There are only 21 million BTC. More can not be printed and 'lost' BTC, is lost forever

  • Growing community of "buy at any price" / "hold forever" bitcoiners.
    -- This community grows from people who got burned by failing alt-coins and people who have lost faith in fiat and now save wealth in btc

The above two factors create extreme distortions when the bitcoin market is near price low's and price high's that renders TA near useless at both extremes. This is because the lower the price goes, the more fervent bitcoin believers start buying and removing supply (often forever). At market high's, early adopters with large supplies of BTC unload and distribute (often never owning as many as they did ever again).

This top and bottom shift creates and ever upward drift on the value of BTC over the long run.

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