You repeat your view about Bitcoin be bearish and I repeat that your stand is technically sound! But In long term predictions a sentiment among people involved in trading and talking about some asset can impact the price movement.
I firmly stand on opinion that charts produce news and news machine sometimes distort the facts on charts and miss lead the people. Than in turn people in smaller or bigger extend impact the price moves.
If overall sentiment saying, that is time to some bull action, this action will pop out and impact the price. If we look on fundamental analysis as interaction between actors trading and laws of price movement this can be sometimes the right path. But I stand on opinion that the laws of price movement is stronger then the sentiment and fundamental analysis.