I don't normally spread FUD or conspiracy theories. However, we all know BTC market is highly manipulated (as well as all crypto markets). Now that halving is approaching, it would be great time to make a mega dip.
The hashrate is currently going up despite the halving, the blocks are full and there is lots of BTC longs. Ethereum hard fork might lead to cash out of DAO holders (ETH->USD, ETH->BTC->USD). Next difficulty will be calculated after more that one week.
Could this scenario be possible (by big BTC miners):
- Crash the BTC price around the halving (short)
- More and more miners shut down their equipments (even manipulators might shut down their equipment temporarely)
- Solving blocks take more and more time. Blocks are full, BTC price tanks
-> close shorts and buy the dip restart the miners. Wait for situation to normalize.
-> Bull trend continues (European banking troubles, Italian turmoil)
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If the hash power tanks significantly, maybe that figure is around 50%, then yes there will be at least moderately rough period ( for the network), owing the the fact the blocks are basically full, until one or two difficulty adjustment kick in. At least a full 2 weeks.
The question is how many miners can you influence offline for what price point of bitcoin. The Chinese are predicting the halvening will only take 10-25% of hashing offline, but that is at a price of bitcoin between 600 to 700. But surely also some miners may mine through this period for the sake of the network, even if it is at loss.
the next difficulty adjustment is on the 18th of July. So the worst of the congestion if it materializes will last about a week, allowing a couple days for the hash power to reduce after the 9th.
Exactly!
This manipulation bit scares the hell out of me. This was a system supposed to be decentralised based on proof of work and now a bunch can get together and twist it around? This has to be fought and the community cannot give in now.
BTC market is still so small and thinly traded that the biggest players can easily manipulate it. Especially, now when we have this shock "event" (halving). Of course, after the first difficulty after the halving is calculated, the situation will normalize (some thing like one week after the halving).
Also, now the ASIC technology has reached its local max (12-14 nm chips). So, it makes more sense for manufacturers to sell the miners than keep them. That should lead to better decentralization.
So if the scenario you project/predict happens, will it go against the popular belief that the price will hike after the halving? I have a few BTC but i have held on for a few years and would not like to see the price down. Whatever the reason, the price has plunged as I write this.
Most might think that the price will go up after the halving. It most certainly will but not immediately. I guess it will take several months. Most likely during NOV/16-FEB/17.
Most of the traders, however, think the price will tank during the halving ("sell on news"). So, it depends. Perhaps, it won't do anything dramatic :)
e: if everything goes well, I guess we might see short relief rally immediately after the halving. Some people could have hedged their position, and will buy back/close the shorts.
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