So if the scenario you project/predict happens, will it go against the popular belief that the price will hike after the halving? I have a few BTC but i have held on for a few years and would not like to see the price down. Whatever the reason, the price has plunged as I write this.
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Most might think that the price will go up after the halving. It most certainly will but not immediately. I guess it will take several months. Most likely during NOV/16-FEB/17.
Most of the traders, however, think the price will tank during the halving ("sell on news"). So, it depends. Perhaps, it won't do anything dramatic :)
e: if everything goes well, I guess we might see short relief rally immediately after the halving. Some people could have hedged their position, and will buy back/close the shorts.