Great post. The yield curve will invert in Dec, the Markets will peak a year later, followed by a recession in April 2020.
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Great post. The yield curve will invert in Dec, the Markets will peak a year later, followed by a recession in April 2020.
Interesting, though I think we are closer to the market peaking, and a recession, than this model indicates.
Total agree, the Markets are topping out now.
I am thinking so as well. Though I think this will be more of a "typical recession" in terms of magnitude. Not like the great recession, and also not "the big one" people are talking about.
I think it will be worst than 08. Consumer / government debt higher than before, interest rates are not as high as before, so government doesn't have a lot of a lot of fire power, China and Japan don't want to buy our bonds/debt any longer.
They have been saying that for years, yet the buying continues. As long as the dollar remains a reserve currency the debt literally does not matter. However, perhaps bitcoin is the beginning of the US losing that world's reserve currency advantage...
I think the dollar will lose is dominance as the #1 world currency in the future.
For sure it will, the question is, when?