Mongolia has largely been spared from Covid-19 and the social & political problems associated with it. The borders were shut early and the only cases we had came from travelers outside the country, almost all who had been sent straight to quarantine as soon as they entered the country. All got treated, no one died, and the virus stayed out of the general population. As a result, we had no endemic spread and life has been pretty normal.
But our luck couldn't last forever, and we've just had our first endemic spread confirmed this week. While details are still coming in, it sounds like it started at one of the quarantine resorts where some of the care workers and residents accidentally got exposed. If it had stopped there that would've been one thing, but one of the residents apparently got exposed shortly before being released when his 21-day quarantine was up. So far it's just some family members that are confirmed to have caught the bug from him. But he's been out and about here in the capital city of Ulaanbaatar for several days, including having attended a large concert. So to say the Mongolian government is on a full-scale freakout would be an understatement.
The Mongolian Government Reacts
For the next five days the government has announced a state of emergency, to include a curfew, closing exit roads from the capital, restricting public transit hours of operation, closing all schools, closing all bars & entertainment venues, and cancelling most of the scheduled charter flights going in & out of the country.
And as if that were not enough, they've banned all alcohol sales for this period as well!
Mongolians reacting to the alcohol sales ban...
How Big Is The Threat?
Personally, the virus doesn't concern me much, and I'd place the larger odds on the virus being contained over the next week or two. We know a lot more about Sars-Cov-2 than we did early this year, and it's much less likely to spread with casual contact than originally feared. And while it CAN spread from asymptomatic carriers, the evidence suggests this is more the exception than the rule. And since the person in question was quick to report his mild symptoms and everyone is now on alert, I suspect odds are that the spread will be mostly limited to his family.
So far there doesn't seem to be a big reaction among Mongolians against the new restrictions, and no protests that I know of. Though that doesn't necessarily translate to OBEDIENCE to the restrictions... in my experience, many Mongolians tend to ignore the government and aren't the kind to ask permission (a trait that's both admirable & a bit frustrating). But even if some ignore the restrictions, I'm pretty sure they will at least use increased caution in face of the increased risk.
Reasonable Measures, Or Path To Statism?
On one hand, if I don't agree I can at least understand why the Mongolian government is doing what it's doing. After all, its quick action (at the time, many would have said OVER-reaction) in closing the borders was key in preventing any local outbreaks. And with a majority of countries implementing heavy-handed restrictions for many months now, and undoubtedly that would make Mongolia's government more likely to do the same. And as my wife says, it's only for five days so why make a big deal about it?
But on the other hand, it also represents a potential path to increased authoritarianism. We've seen numerous examples this year of governments doubling down on a state of emergency and grabbing more power and instituting more controls over their citizens. While I don't share the belief that this pandemic was all some sort of sinister plan from the start, I DO believe many people & organizations in government would recognize it as an opportunity for personal gain and act on it. Sure, citizens in some countries have pushed back hard (and good on you for that!), but in many other cases the citizens have largely rolled over in response. Whether out of fear, apathy, or perceived helplessness I do not know.
To be clear, I have no problem with the intent involved. Asking citizens to temporarily restrict their activity outside the home and take extreme precautions is perfectly sensible & practical. It's the means used, specifically government mandate with threat of fines & imprisonment, that I have issues with. Especially when we're talking about a pandemic as mild & treatable as this one. A government making recommendations and calling for cooperative action, while at the same time letting the citizens be adults and decide for themselves how to best respond, is much more my style.
The Situation On The Ground
Meanwhile here in Mongolia's capital, if there's a bright side to this it's that despite increased police presence on the streets, thus far they've been using a light touch. Technically there is the threat of fines, but sounds like the police are limiting things to just asking people to hurry up whatever they're doing and then leaving them be. No cops hassling people for taking a short rest on a park bench, no snooping on people to see if they have too many visitors in their home, and certainly no imprisonment for being out and about for "unapproved activity". While perhaps some of this can be attributed to respect for the people, my own opinion is that an equal or larger factor in it is the Mongolian government is limited in its power & reach. Yes the traffic sucks and things can be really inefficient here, but that seems a small price to pay in order to not have some government meathead all up in one's business.
Well that's all for now. So in the meantime, here's to living our lives with care, but without fear... 😎