Numbers over the weekend seemed "off", especially on the figures for new cases so I decided to wait until I had decent numbers over the next few days.
The main problem, and this has been going on for the best of a month now, is that the around the time that the numbers of cases and deaths looked like they were peaking, the weekend data started looking odd to me. At the time, and as I do now, I assumed that the lab testing wasn't keeping up, probably due to being under staffed over the weekend. I also assumed that this was the case for the hospitals, counties and other reporting entities.
This meant that the data on Friday which is reported on Saturday would be complete at the labs, but not from the reporting entities. This also goes for Sunday on Saturday data. Usually there is a correction on Monday for these discrepancies and it isn't difficult to see on bar charts that this is likely the case.
Anyway, onto the data then. So we expected the weekend numbers to crash, but as we know, the weekend data is to be trusted even less. Sunday reported only 750 new deaths, and Monday reported only 950 new deaths. The new cases were 20k+ and 18k+ which are also very low considering the increasing number of tests. This is why I waited until today when the reported data should be "caught up."
And low and behold, it seems to have caught up. The results are interesting. The average number of new cases across the country was 20k+ which is still a good drop and the average number of new deaths is 1110. This is really good news but it's the new case numbers that concern me.
They remain difficult to interpret and increasingly so. I would imagine that the lockdown has indeed slowed the spread, but that isn't entirely obvious if you look at the individual states and how hard and early they locked down. Another possibility is that the virus is not as easily transmissible as thought. That is probably atleast part of the reason. At this point, it isn't unreasonable to think that a lot of people have already had it, and will only be found by testing for antibodies with serological testing.
What is surprising however, is that we should be seeing a rise in new cases as the numbers of tests go up. But that isn't what we're seeing at the moment. Local news sources are going crazy over local "hotspots" found by testing after lockdowns are eased, but the fact remains that they are only local and limited.
The numbers for new deaths looks more encouraging. If the trend continues, then instead of the 3000 or so new deaths a day that was being shouted about last week, we'll be seeing probably less than 1000 new deaths per day by end of week.
The 7 day MA of new deaths is trending down from a high of 14K+ total per week on April 22 (a week after peak cases) to about 11k+ today. This represents a steady and linear decline of roughly 21% for the past 3 weeks. None of the hospitals are overwhelmed, and they are not likely going to be overwhelmed either.
Absent the NYC area, the data looks even better. The Chicago Metro does seem to be getting worse, and Detroit Metro is slow to recover in Detroit proper. However the rest of Wayne County and Oakland/Macomb County are getting better at the same pace as the rest of the country.
Again, removing the NYC area for new deaths, the rest of the country actually averaged about 650 new deaths per day for the weekend period and Monday. The 7 day MA of new deaths would be less than 8000, so a marked dropped worth noting.
More attention needs to be paid to the effects on health as a result of a crippled economy. I have seen reports on the media (how reliable, I don't know) that about a fifth of children are not being adequately fed. I think it's important at this point to be very aware that the fear of the virus cannot override the horrible effects of a very bad economy.
Now if we could just really "follow the science" we would be having a real discussion on what the proper balance is between allowing governors decide arbitrarily to keep strangling local economies and allowing everyone to run crazy, and that would be a good thing.
Ah, well. Follow the serious drill.
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