Also "decent" points except you admitted that you wouldn't want to be "isolated" in bitcoin, and if China truly is "controlling" pricing in bitcoin as the guy in this interview thinks (and I agree with), you are isolated by the whims of river boat gamblers...becuz that's what the Chinese are whenever they see a "frenzy." They loooove to "gamble." :-)
My indicators monitor only sentiment via price so if GBTC is that grossly mispriced it could still possibly mean that the "actual" bitcoin price is also driven on speculation. I go by the theory of waiting for prices to rally waaaay above a price that we "know" is going to be taken out. And then play for the "adjustment." GBTC still has a date with at least 160.00. I don't see anything that will change that altho the high on GBTC could still get taken out. But that would be a very tuff "sentiment" climb. Anyone who paid $500+ for GBTC is just "praying" for a move back above $500. I still think we will find out soon if it is an actual gauge for "live" bitcoin. Right now no change to my current outlook...even after GBTC opened up theu $426.
ON the previous bouts of selling the volume remained strong on the weekends. The overall volume in bitcoin was strongest when the Chinese (that's my story and I'm sticking to it) were running the price up. I imagine Chinese boiler rooms are likely mining the majority of bitcoin? That's a fundametal thing you could check out to help with the decision to sell here or hold. I just watch sentiment and sentiment only.
Enron basically took the entire blame for what happened in the natgas sector. There were at least a half dozen other companies that were equally as fraudulent yet when Enron went defunct they all rose from the dead. Chesapeake energy was one. It's back down "near" dead but this is the one I still watch periodically, WMB. This company should have gone defunct along with enrob, Calpine was another one.
My "theory" states that all pricing reverts back to the place where the "mispricing" began...no matter how high above there the price goes. WMB "should" still go defunct because it never paid for past fraud. A real market will eventually price it properly imo.