If you've followed my Facebook or Twitter feeds or my Steemit blog, you know I've been re-sharing posts related to EOS because I think it has the potential to be one of the greatest blockchains yet created. I know that's quite a claim, but how many projects in the cryptocurrency space are being developed by someone with a proven record of success stretching back for multiple years? Dan created ProtoShares, BitShares 1.0, BitShares 2.0, and Steem. I think he's a genius, and his technical accomplishments speak for themselves.
EOS is going to be huge.
Now let's talk about the ICO. The EOS initial coin offering seems to me to be the perfect antidote for the FOMO fever we've been seeing lately. There are people throwing value at any and every ICO possible in hopes of hitting the next big thing. In many cases, they are using pure profits in the process. For example, if you bought ETH at, say, $10, and it's trading for 20 to 40 times that, spreading that ETH around is a no-brainer.
I do think, however, the space is becoming irrational. I remember seeing someone send 100 ETH (over $30k at the time) to a random address someone posted in a Slack channel. That's enough money to buy a really nice car. Who sends that amount of money somewhere without verifying things first?
That's incredibly irrational.
Greed and FOMO, The Fear of Missing Out, are driving a lot of this craziness. ICO's selling out in minutes if not seconds. Whales buying up most of the coins before anyone else can get in. This is the landscape we find ourselves in.
EOS is different. This ICO is a year long (including an initial 5 day starting period). Not only that, we don't know what the price will be per EOS until each ICO period is over.
There's already over $10M going for 200M tokens in this first round (edit: see the update below as not all of this is for the first ICO window). We're at $0.05 per EOS which sounds great, but we're just getting started.
I saw Dan post this in the Telegram:
Please, be careful here. Ask yourself what price you're willing to pay for EOS. Wait a few days into this 5 day period to know if you'll get anywhere near the price you're looking for.
The same advice applies for every one-day ICO period from then on for the rest of the year-long ICO period. If, for example, we come out of this ICO period with a price of $10 each, do you think it's rational that people will continue to invest $20,000,000 into the ICO every single day for almost a year? If not, then $10 will not be the best price throughout the year. The price will have to go down. If it does, that means you can get a better price later just by being patient. $10 is just a random number example. The price could end up lower or higher.
"The stock market has a very efficient way of transferring wealth from the impatient to the patient." – Warren Buffett.
It also means, some people are going to be pissed for overpaying for EOS early on. I can see it now already. There will be massive cries of SCAM! and This isn't fair!
The reality is, many people aren't spending the time to learn how this unique ICO actually functions. This is the ultimate buyer beware situation. If FOMO drives your decision processes, then you're not thinking rationally.
Please, use some math to bring back some rationality. Keep an eye on this address:
https://etherscan.io/address/0xd0a6e6c54dbc68db5db3a091b171a77407ff7ccf
Do some simple math during the 5-day period using the numbers there:
<ETH USD value> / 200,000,000 = Price per EOS during this period
So that would be:
11,155,994 / 200,000,000 = $0.05577997
Just while typing this post out, we're already up to $11M. So now we're at $0.0558 per EOS. It'll only go higher.
You can do this same process each day during the ICO. Just change 200,000,000 to 2,000,000 and use the right address for that period. Figure out what the price will be per EOS and decide if that's the price you're willing to pay. Obviously, you'll have more accurate information towards the end of the ICO window, but then again, so will everyone else. I expect to see a lot of last-minute orders which could throw off the math entirely.
We also don't know what will happen once these tokens hit the open market. There's so much we don't know. To make rational decisions, we need reliable information.
Hear me clearly: I'm a huge fan of EOS, and I plan to end the next 300 something days with as much EOS as I can get for a long-term HODL investment. At the same time, I want to be smart about it. I want to be rational.
I hope you do too.
For more on the EOS ICO, please see this excellent post by the official EOS account on Steemit: Logically Consistent Principles for Token Distributions. Be smart. Don't trust information unless it comes from an official source such as https://eos.io or https://steemit.com/@eosio
Created with ChainBB to help support that project.
Update June 26th, 12pm:
Since I'm in the USA, I haven't seen the interface created at eos.io to work with the ICO contract. Big thanks to @sandwich for providing these screenshots.
Apparently it's possible to contribute to future EOS ICO days now, prior to those windows starting! @dantheman verified that in Telegram:
So what does this mean? It means we have even more information to make rational decisions. We can start evaluating the future price of EOS on future days of the ICO contract right now. This also means there probably won't be a "cheap day" you can get into because the same information is available to everyone.
Fascinating stuff. Of all the things I've been reading about this, I wasn't aware of this one feature allowing contributions now to future ICO windows. What do you think?
Update June 26th, 11:20pm:
I wrote a script for you! You can use it to view the current, real-time price of EOS per ICO window. Check it out on ChainBB here: Script You Can Use for Finding the Current Price of EOS per ICO Window or on Steemit here.
Luke, amazing post with two particulary important points
A point I would also make is that the secondary markets are going to ultimately price EOS.
Thanks Bill.
I think the secondary markets will ultimately price it, but I wonder if they will be able to keep up with the daily ICO option increasing supply. I might say, "Sure, I'll trade my ETH for EOS as I think EOS will be more valuable long term." But would I pay $200 for EOS right now knowing that every single day for the next 300+ days, people will have to buy up 200 x 2,000,000 ($400M) worth of EOS to support that price?
This is going to be really interesting. I want to figure how how to analyze that contract to determine what the daily contributions are at any given time.
A voice of reason, so refreshing to hear!
I didn't know about the tool for investing in future windows - I'm grateful that you've shared this information.
I'm really excited about EOS, but I'm also not in a rush to invest in this just yet. I think that I'll stick with the adage of being
Warren Buffett
Great post Luke, It is cool how one can put ETH into any of the windows. For fun I might drop a bit on #201 which is Ben Franklin's birthday. I wonder what a guy like that would have built on EOS?
Seriously though, I was going to dump about 10 ETH into the first window today, and then I realized, meh...? "Why don't convert my ETH back into bitUSD and wait this general correction out a bit. Perhaps I can get a couple of extra ETH in a few days (perhaps a couple less) and then I can have more EOS.
I absolutely love the way that this ICO is orchestrated. @dan is the man!
That's a good idea. I wish I was smart (and quick) enough to move to bitUSD or SBD during these market corrections. It seems to me the upswings are so much faster than the downswings, I'd hate to miss out. Just holding has, so far, been the best strategy for me, but I sure wonder sometimes. I've talked about that at length here.
Ben Franklin's the man. :)
Luke, thanks for the info & insights - in case you didn't know yet, @pyo made a pretty cool tool http://eosscan.io/
https://steemit.com/eos/@pyo/introducing-eosscan-io-the-real-time-eos-token-price-tracker
Hear hear!
Buying huge piles of EOS NOW makes sense only if you try to manipulate the price (and you are whale enough to do that).
For Average Joe like us:
This hype is crazy. Will be interesting to see how many hundreds of millions are raised the first 5 days.
Luke, Well written and excellent logic...Thank You...
UpVoted, Following from my 2nd Week ( been here 5 weeks ) AND...
ReSTEEMed !!.... Thanks Again !!
Thanks for sharing! It certainly has got all the hype! I just don't know how to play it. I feel like the price could drop as time goes on (for a little while) we shall see. I also wonder what it will do for Ethereum!
Check here to confirm that you are not a U.S. citizen, resident or entity (a “U.S. Person”) nor are you purchasing EOS Tokens or signing on behalf of a U.S. Person. that's the part that scares me How is a US citizen to get EOS? Just lie I guess?
Or wait 5+ days and buy them off an exchange once they hit the market.
That means that prices are almost guaranteed to go up on the exchange, because there is certainly going to be a lot of demand from the US for this ICO. Is it clear why they decided to exclude US citizens?
Good to see you on Steemit! :)
Most ICO's have been doing this lately to avoid scrutiny from the SEC, I think.
It may go up initially, but we should also keep in mind the ICO continues for 300+ days. For the price to go up on the market would mean people would have to continue buying the ICO to support that price or else people will just get it from the ICO instead of the market which would cause the price to fall.
Makes sense. Will be very interesting to see how prices go on the exchange. Do you know what exchanges it will be traded on initially? I suppose I can wait... :)
ok, thanks for the post. And the response. waiting is ok I think. At least I don't need to ha the FOMO!! You are appreciated!
Thanks, Luke. I'll definitely be doing the calculations later on in the ICO period, and see if I can get in when the price is right.
I wish people would stop and realize that the urgency to get in is causing some really foolish decisions, and putting the entire ethereum ecosystem is at stake (at least for the short time). Seeing the frenzy, sharks are in the water looking to take advantage of foolishness—hollow products non-deserving of fund raising, online hoaxes to crash markets...how many scams were happening in the eos slack channel alone this weekend?
Be safe out there, people.
Yeah, it's definitely getting a little crazy. Be safe indeed. Thanks for commenting, Ben.
I've been reading so much the past couple weeks... so many crypto-enthusiasts believe ETH is the future. Yet so many of the crypto-financial chart-ers wouldn't touch it with a long pole. I'm feeling like ETH is worth investing at a much lower price—it's not ready yet.
ETH has serious scaling problems which are already being exposed this early in the game. EOS has already conceptually solved those problems and proven the concepts via Steem and BitShares. I'd be okay trading my ETH in for EOS, but I also want to be smart about how I do it.
This is my biggest issue. I'm not able to take advantage. For example: I got a great deal on some ETH on an exchange, and saw it trading 12% higher on Bittrex. So I initiated a transfer to swing it over to even look for a 8-10% gain—not being greedy. The ETH took an hour, and by the time it was available, all those gains had evaporated.
I can't afford that.
It is important to have a balance between being patient and being too patient. So many factors can affect ICOs, so I guess it is just important for one to follow the price trend and set a tag price at which one can jump in and not end up losing out because one is waiting for the end to see if the price falls very low. Thanks for the analysis.
What so many people are failing to take into account, I think, is the impact of a year long ICO. People are rushing into this right now in the first few hours for what purpose? This window is five days long. There's no preference for people who buy now or 4 days from now. Seeing the network flooded by those rushing to get in is so silly to me.
Like you said, it is the FOMO. Fear can easily push one to make irrational decisions.
After the DAO, I sold most my ethereum, and left just a little bit and forgot it. Well, Eth is way up, and I converted all that little bit (worth 100x) to EOS, my first ICO.
I hope it doesn't get overpriced.
@lukestokes I also believe in EOS but what do you think will be the initial price? I'm not able to invest too much at start but my opinion is that it cant't go below the initial price after the first day, right? It's still a long long long term investment.. For years to come to gain considerable profit since this tech has yet to be adopted in the blockchain world.
And 1 more question. Is ICO starting in 5 days?
The ICO started today. The first window last 5 days. Each window after that is 1 day long for about a year. The price can go lower if the market sells lower or future ICO windows have lower amounts contributed.
Thank you. Seems like distribution app is down now.
I learned more about EOS and the ICO in this than in anything else I've read. ah thank you.
Great info, this post could save me a lot of money. I am definitely buying, the question is when, I still think that the first phase could be a good oppurtunity, but we will see the last day, i see the ETH network congestion already haha. Thank you so much for great post.
@lukestokes I think this is exceptional article. And I am on same line With you (have written some coments about getting into EOS). I just do not understand why would I (or anybody) invest in EOS today.
My strategy is to wait to become tradable and than try to pay as lower price as I can.
...if you are a huge fan then you may find this funny.
"THE EOS KILLER"?
Only time will tell... i will pick up a few down the road. I have some patience lol
How to participate in the EOS Token distribution:
awasom and really helpfull article
UPVOTE+RESTEEM+FOLLOW+RE-STEEM
Just Got 300+ Followe within 20 Days. Hope get an UPVOTE from you. Your Upvote will motivate me to Steeming!
Post Link: https://steemit.com/steemit/@joydip8116/300-follower-just-crossed-hearteyes
Thanks for this informative post. I'm very interested, but was uncertain how this ICO would work being extended over such a long period of time. I really like the part where you show how to calculate the value. Very helpful to someone like me who is pretty new to all of this.
Thanks for sharing. I made a post last night wondering about how this all works and if I should buy it right when the ico starts. I held off, no I'm not regretting it so much. Thanks!
FOMO is still so evident in much of the investment in the cryptocurrency market, and I think the initial investment window will be driven by it. With a long term mind set it doesn't matter whether I get my stake today or in 300 days, but I would love to get it at the best value possible. This will be much easier said than done but I think the price of the tokens during the initial period will be drastically more than they will be several months from now. Great post!
REally awasom
Upvote+Re-steem
Just Got 300+ Followe within 20 Days. Hope get an UPVOTE from you. Your Upvote will motivate me to Steeming!
Post Link: https://steemit.com/steemit/@joydip8116/300-follower-just-crossed-hearteyes
Thanks for sharing this with us.. i almost became a victim of scammers that has been asking me to send them ETH to buy EOS
Great post and lots of info to absorb. Thanks for sharing.
In the fiat market, FOMO is usually followed by a similar acronym ... FML.
In the real estate market, the approach EOS is taking will force a bidding war. It is a clever tactic. Very interesting to watch.
Buyer beware.
Hah. Yeah, there may be some FML after this. Time will tell.
HI -Good info on EOS i hope Dan will keep Steem in focus and moving forward while this is launching - am keen to get involved but am too new and don't understand what to do yet
Dan has already moved on from the Steemit team and is no longer involved in the project.
Excuse my ignorance mate, i really feel like a fool and i will do my best to read up about what is going on here on Steemit. I reckon your a good guy and i can see your doing a lot for us all. Keep on rockin -David
Tell me, why can EOS tokens be bought only for the etherium, and not for bitcoin? In many it causes difficulties.
Read the EOS post I linked for a detailed explanation of why they are using ETH to do this ICO.
promising new currency
Thank you for your commitment. I appreciate all the advice.
Great advice!
Say no to FOMO. Great advice Luke. I will wait because a friend told me that there are already 100 secret investors in.
100% upvoted and resteemed.
Best greetings from @welovesteemit.
Thanks! :)
Welcome :-)
Excellent read
Who the hell is Yubini?
Yunbi is one of the biggest Crypto currency exchange in China. Www.yunbi.com.
I don't even know. :)
This is so true! People need to take time and actually learn about EOS and all of these ICOs. They invest their hard earned money just because people are telling them to. First do your research, analyze everything, THEN invest. If you do that, you will not have FOMO because you know what you're investing in. Thanks for sharing :)
Nicely drafted post!!! followed you, upvoted and resteemed as well!
Looks promising indeed!
As long as we get the best blockchain 2.0 out there, it will all be worth it.
Excellent post! I like your work My friend
Impressive strategy of evaluting cost ...
Thank you for being a voice of sanity right now Luke. We need cool heads.
Cool post! Upvoted!
I definitely do not want to miss out on this, but I also don't want to invest far more than it is worth at an early stage of the ICO. It is going to be interesting for sure...
I try to stay away from ICOs and especially the ones that seem overhyped. I'd rather just wait until they are available on the exchanges and buy after everyone has sold at a very cheap price. - @jarexx
I appreciate your sharing the contract address with such straightforward direction on how to see how much has been contributed and thus what the price for the period is. I've been stumped on this.
I also tried accessing the distribution interface via Chrome, but was getting some error messages. Not sure if it's an issue on my end with MetaMask or something that needs fixing - though in the meantime, great to have you shared the direct link so can check simply.
What I'm still hoping to get is a way to see the contribution per day. Now that I know people are pre-paying future ICO days, that would be really useful information to have. I'm hoping someone will build a steemdollar type site which will show the price on each day of the ICO given the current contribution amounts along with (eventually) the market price based on active exchanges. That would be a really useful tool.
yep - I wrote a post about that idea a few days ago.
that's pretty crazy that people can / are paying for future days. what an interesting dynamic, this sale is...
This is crazy, I'm going to wait until the price is right to potentially jump in.
On a separate note, I know that you were a big supporter of the two projects I released earlier this month, and I wanted to let you know that I've started a tutorial series on steem-python to help those who are new to steemit and have little to no programming experience be able to contribute to the Steem blockchain through programming! Here is the link: https://steemit.com/steem-dev/@zcgolf16/steem-python-and-piston-tutorial-series-1-a-simple-yet-powerful-voting-bot.
The reason that I'm sharing this post in this manner is because I want it to fall into the right hands. I don't care if my post makes $0.01 or $1,000, but what I want is for it to help the people that it is designed to help. I don't feel like my following is big enough for that goal to be accomplished. Thank you in advance for checking it out!
He who controls the EOS, controls the universe!
source
Good to see you're a Dune fan like myself :)
I read them all in high school. It's been a long time though... I should read them again. :)
This is great. I have read so many about EOS ICO trying to understand it. This is by far the best. Thanks