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I do not believe that we will see rapid and fast change in global currency reserve situation. just for the reason that it is not in anyone's interest. For example Chinese hold so much debt dollars they certainly do not want dollar to downfall fast. I believe that we will see a slow shift as other currencies weight in SDR basket grow slowly. juan is added in SDR basket October 2016 weight of 10.92%. its weight will certainly increase in the long term .https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_drawing_rights
SDR will be global currency reserve but it's not going to happen overnight.
I didn't realize that it's weight would grow, in a definite way, over time. Interesting. Thanks for the comment and watching! I'll look into things further, viljo.
These are political decisions so who knows what will happen? Chinese economy is so big that I'm surprised is if this does not happen. Chinese can not devalue juan in big way if they want to stay in the SDR basket. if I understand this correctly?
My geopolitical prediction is that you will hear lot about countries in central-asia in news next year. Kazakstan, Kirgisia, Tadžikistan, Turkmenistan ja Uzbekistan and news are not going to be good....
But Finland will be safe from Russia.
If whole of central is Asia--destabilizing It will have big impact on Finland. If the dominoes begin to fall over there and we see similar destabilizing in eurasia that we have seeing in midle-east in last years? we are in big trouble for sure. The Government of Finland is gonna have a hard place figure out what should be done. I think that Ukraine is only the first piece in this puzzle.
Finally, in the end Russia surprisingly invades Europe in 3 lines: North (Scandinavia), middle (Germany), South (Southern Europe).
http://www.amanita.at/docs/open/newsletter-e.pdf
page 14
Sounds scary.
Russia not gonna invade Finland or europe. Russia does not have any motive to do so. what could happen if central is Asia--destabilizing and what effects it may have Finnish point of view is something like this. refugee crisis: refugees from central-asia countries come to Finland in a large scale. energy crisis: we are dependent on oil that comes on eurasia. Diplomatic crisis with Russia: lets take hypothetical situation were For example someone is trying to do coup d'état in Belarus and fails to do so. then person who is responsible for unsuccessful coup d'état in belarus ask political asylum in Finland. Russia says that this person is a terrorist an EU say you have to give political asylum. This kind of crisis can affect so many ways that it is impossible to predict what will happen.
I believe the S&P500 will peak sometime next year and we will see maybe a 50% correction from the 2009 low to the 2017? peak.
I think in the stock market is a bubble created by the central banks and it gonna pop only a matter of time.
Agree. Just wrote something about S&P500.