I have been looking online for some data that can demonstrate whether there is any correlation between covid19 vaccinations and covid cases and deaths for some time now. For some reason i could not find anyone who has shown this data one way or another. Nevertheless, it seemed to me a mystery to me why looking at a few examples that many countries with very high vaccination rates still have high covid rates.. and conversely many countries with low vaccination rates have quite low relative rates.
I like to know the truth of things, and i also was not comfortable coming to any conclusions based on potentially cherry picking a few countries and trying to say anything from that.
Statistics are BLOODY hard to get right, and you truly have to be objective and look for the truth, rather than to prove a point when you use them. Therefore yesterday i spent the entire day researching for myself using data from https://ourworldindata.org/ to figure out for myself what the truth is about this. I don't trust anyone else's graphs anyways, i want to do proper due diligence on this very important topic!
Choosing the right data
It is a challenge to choose the right data, and there are many many options to choose from when trying to correlate vaccine use with covid rates. Do you look at cases, deaths, hospitalisations, people who had one shot, or two, or are fully vaccinated? How many countries should you compare?
So, in the end i decided to focus on cases and deaths, separately. In my opinion deaths may well be a better marker than cases since deaths are always recorded, whereas cases depends on the numbers of people who were tested. I also decided to compare EVERY country in the world (more or less) to provide the best set range that i could.
Finding correlations is a delicate science, and correlating different countries over the same time frame of one year seemed to me to be the best way to do this correlative check. That is because it removes many variables such as seasonal changes etc. Some people were trying to deny my data on Facebook yesterday by simply showing me how covid cases have decreased in the UK alone since vaccinations started. That is a very poor way to measure any correlation since it doesn't take into account natural variation, seasonal changes and more.
I would like to say that consider myself a good scientist. That is to say, i am impartial and have no attachment to the outcome one way or another. I am willing to accept the conclusions whichever way it goes. Id also like to mention that i have a strong background in Biology and medicinal microbiology. I have also studied statistics, and learned about how to determine whether data is statistically relevant or not using systems like Chi-Square.
The Data
COVID CASES %
COVID DEATHS PER MILLION PEOPLE
The blue bars are the % vaccinated people from high to low for each country in the world. The orange bars are the % cases for the same country over the last year.
What one would expect to see, if vaccines are working, is the orange bars should go from low to high. This means low cases where there high vaccinations and high number of cases where the vaccines are low.
I find the data that I have presented to be very interesting indeed. In my opinion, based on this data, i come to the conclusion that THERE IS NO CORRELATION BETWEEN BEING VACCINATED AND COVID CASES OR DEATHS. In fact, in terms of cases i can see a clear inverse correlation for cases, whereby the countries with the most cases seem to also have higher vaccination rates.
The data for deaths shoes less correlation for an inverse relationship, BUT it clearly shows that there is still no correlation between being vaccinated and the number of deaths. According to this data, vaccinations do not seem to be doing very much.
Interesting Data Points
I would like to share these interesting data points relating to income.
High Income
67% of people are vaccinated and there is a 327% increase in cases and 1500% increase in deaths
Upper Middle Income
65% of people are vaccinated and there is a 633% increase in cases and 871% increase in
deaths
Low Middle Income
27% of people are vaccinated and there is a 15% increase in cases and 347% increase in
deaths
Low Income
3% of people are vaccinated and there is a 1.2% increase in cases and 56% increase in
deaths
These numbers are startling! The difference between them is way beyond anything that you can contest to be chance, and the figures follow a clear logical progression. It is clear, those with more income are having more vaccinations and are also suffering much more from deaths and cases that lower income people. If we take the two extremes we can see a 1500% increase in deaths for the high income people, and yet just 56% increase for low income. That is a 10x difference. Not only that but the vaccination rates are just tiny at just 3% for low income people, compared to 67% for high income people.
I don't think i really need to draw any conclusions from this data, as it is self evident to me. For once, the low income and poorest people seem to be in the best situation!
Raw Data
If you would like to see the raw data that i have compiled for each country you can see it below. It is hard to see it all in the graph as there are so many countries!
Do you want to see more?
If you think that this work is interesting please let me know in the comments. I am happy to create more of these statistics for a wide range of other factors. I am interested to look at fertility for example!
If you understand statistics and have any feedback please also let me know. If you believe my data is somehow flawed i want to know about it. If you think there is a better way to measure this correlation please tell me about it. I am seeking the truth only!
May be because they are hard working and thus better immunity ? The government should have created these kind of data - but they are more interested in spending more amount in Covid as many people in the system take the benefit to earn massive amount of money under the table. There is no audit in pandemic as well - so nice opportunity for them.
Makes you think :)
yes i had thought that also.. they work hard, and eat much better. no mac donalds! :)
Why do you trust the data? just curious because .. guess I'm extremely cynical because there IS a lot of lying going on it seems. The data gatherer could be 100% accurate and honest but the data submitters from around the globe.
Or, i could be looking at it all wrong but it's interesting and I always want to know the truth.
We all know that the numbers are played, but I don't see any scenario in which vaccination won't be mandatory. The wold is becoming more China like.
it does seem to be headed that way doesnt it..
its going to backfire i think because of the prevalence of fake certificates.. pretty soon everyone who doesnt want to vax will have one.. and then all the numbers will also become meaningless.. well they already are actually!
@eco-alex Hmmm. The relation between income groups and death/ covid rates is rather a revelations. I have long suspected that the lower income groups is more hardy and have more natural immunity whereas the higher income group protects their bodies with special foods and drinks etc and makes them more vulnerable. Take the example of my own self - When I was younger, there was no concept of bottled water in my country and I used to drink water from taps even at railway stations. Now, with my having pampered self with bottled water for years, if I even get a drink with some ice, my throat goes for a toss!
What is the time period that this covers? Is it all deaths or deaths specifically by Covid? How are you establishing income?
These figures are from the last year..
The stats are determined by my data source, im not sure how they establish it but they are a good source of data from what i can make out…
So, sorry. I don't think I'm understanding... when you say 56% increase in deaths in low income, is that 56% from January 1 2020 to December 31 2020? Or are you saying from the time period is 15 Nov 2020 to 15 Nov 2021 (for example)?
Also... the High, Upper Middle, Lower Middle and Low income stats come directly from the data source? You don't know what that means?
And yes it is deaths specific to covid
Another data hunter, great!!
I did a similar post and found that covid deaths (generally) did correlate negatively with vaccination rates.
Our methodologies differ in that I looked at each country separately over time, whereas you squashed the time dimension into "total vax/total deaths". Not that that's necessarily a bad thing. I preferred not to, because then you get these awkward questions like "did they have a huge covid wave in Spring 2021, then vaxxed up in summer?" or other such anomalies.
However, what I understand is that you took every country as a data point. This may lead to some inconsistencies like how every country counts a covid death, but I'm guessing it's not a huge issue per se as it hopefully evens out across many countries.
My only "complaint" is that I think low income countries simply don't have the resources + desire to start hunting for covid.
It's hard to care for a respiratory virus in a population that worries about food (good luck locking them down).
More important, keep something in mind - low income countries generally... well, they don't really have as many old people. We know that age is THE crucial factor for surviving covid. If there aren't enough oldies to go around, the poorest nations will NEVER have high covid deaths, even if the virus ravages through them.
Thanks for this very smart comment! It is nigh on impossible to really say much from any data I suppose.. for certain.. other than that the approach taken isnt working
I just watched how the amish dealt with it
Amazing!
Two months they all had it snd then life got back to normal
Amazing huh!
I've seen this one! It's really cool.
Having said that, I'm STILL wary of "just letting the virus take its hold". The Amish are a very bizarre (no offence intended) group.
Their lifestyle, their communication with the outside world, everything is so different from most of modern Western society that who can really tell what kept covid from damaging their society.
What SHOULD be done is to study everything about the Amish and try to figure out how they were left more or less unscathed, but that would require an actual desire to defeat the virus, not prolong it endlessly to bring in more draconian laws. Plus, who's going to pay for all the unused vaccines?
The fact that the current approach is so horribly wrong is undeniable and I don't understand how anyone sane can still support the measures taken as even mildly reasonable.
It was exactly same with the authodox jews in new york.. they carried on as normal and very quickly got through it