Experts predict that by 2030, there will be roughly 66,000 fewer 7–15-year-olds in Finland, leading to a closure of hundreds of schools and daycare centres.
I was talking about the shrinking population in Finland yesterday, and that is the prediction based on current trajectory for how many fewer children there will be. To put it in perspective, one in four schools may be forced to close and consolidate. Most of these will be in regional areas, which means the kids will have to travel much further to get to school. And of course, the teaching professions is going to see some radical change also.
This reminded me of a story I heard over twenty years ago from a client of mine from China. He was a bit older than me and after a recent trip back home, he was saying how weird it was. He had walked past his old school, which had thousands of students in it when he was there, and it was a ghost town. It was lunch time and instead of being full, the playground was nearly empty. The effects of one-child policy visualised.
But even without government restrictions, there has been a rapid decline in births per woman for decades and there are many reasons for it. The "cost" of having children is often cited, but I believe that this is an automatic answer, without a lot of thought that goes into it. I think for a lot of people, it is more about the inconvenience of it. But for many, one of the things that is often overlooked, is that committed relationships are far rarer these days, which I put largely down to looking for love in all the wrong places.
Essentially, people are more diverse in their beliefs and opinions these days, having more online community than real-life community. A community is filled with "like-minded" people, but online that is less likely to translate into physical relationships. And not only are people wider in belief and opinion, but we are far more dismissive of alternate opinions, where people are making their decisions on who to date or not, based on the silliest of factors. Women get the "ick" feeling from some minor perceived infraction, and it is all over.
Combined with the "I'm the only one who matters and I am entitled to get everything I want" mentality of many these days, it means that it is incredibly hard to create the kinds of connection that last long enough to lead to having children. Instead, people trawl Tinder, swiping left and right based on looks, expecting to find "the one" who is their perfect soulmate, and who will never say, do, or believe anything that upsets them.
The person who doesn't exist.
There are plenty of people who have not just "given up" on having children, they have given up on relationships in total. Again, many reasons for this, but obviously they go hand in hand with the birth rate. I reckon a lot of people who believe they are better alone, are scared of being hurt, are selfish, or are scared of getting hurt again, because their past relationships haven't met their expectations, and they assume that the problem is in the other people.
It partly is.
Because when everyone behaves like this, it is near impossible to have a healthy relationship, as every discussion becomes a minefield of triggering topics, every word is interpreted through the eyes of a victim, and every action has a high risk of failing the near impossible and often conflicting "standards" that people have.
Don't settle.
Sure. Don't settle. But, ten, twenty, thirty years down the track, when the playgrounds are ghost towns, and the depth of loneliness has taken all the joy out of behaving like a teenager, society isn't to blame. Because, we are society, we are the creators of culture, and we are the individuals who can choose to act differently than we do.
We are to blame.
It is a likely a good thing for the health of the environment that we depopulate ourselves, but that doesn't mean it is healthy for us as a hole. It might be, it might not be, but as populations decrease, so does choice and diversity of looks, thought and skill.
Perfect for automation to takeover.
Taraz
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The shrinking population issue you talked about in Finland really shows how much society is changing. If one in four schools may close, that says a lot about how serious the situation is. I can imagine how tough it will be for children in rural areas to travel long distances just to attend school. I think this issue only happens in the developed nations. In my own country, a lot of children are being given birth too easily as African believe so much in marriage as a major means of bringing children into the world. Even a lot of babies are coming into this world outside wedlock.
As you mentioned, a story about China connecting well too which it shows that this problem is not new, and it’s something many developed countries have already experienced. It makes me think that while the cost of raising children is often blamed, like you said, lifestyle choices, relationships, and even the way people see commitment today play a big role which are not often felt in this part of the world. Athough relationship is tough all over the world as it is difficult to meet your 'soulmate', that doesn’t stop the birth in this part of the world.
To me, I believe this is a result of the social setting of the developed nation, which is not the same as what we have here in African.
I think it is majorly about the culture of the nation. There is never a government policy that ever talks about giving birth to a child per woman. It can never work in Africa.
It is a pretty simple mathematical model, isn't it? More people are being born in some places, less in others. The places that need more people, don't have enough being born, the places that don't need more, have too many.
For sure. It is a massive shift in in the last 60 years or so.
In recent years, I think people have seemed to be more focused into searching for the 'ideal' partner online instead of building genuine connections, which is resulting in deserted hangouts and lonely tomorrows.
When billions have lonely tomorrows, what does society look like?
Desperate.
Marital relationships aren't meant to be perfect from the start. It just needs two people who are willing to put aside their differences and grow together. That may be a major reason for Finland's declining population, people wait until a relationship is perfect before they commit. Others who cite the rising cost of living as a reason for not having kids are quite right. But the truth is that relationships in our day have become half-hearted. Somebody who's not ready to be committed in a relationship simply cannot dare face the hassels of having and raising a child. Period.
And this is the problem these days I believe. Many people are in their own silo, believing that what they believe, is the right, making everyone else wrong.
Yet, look at what childless people spend, and what they spend it on :)
My wife and I only disagree on the things she's wrong about.
As you said there are lot of factors responsible for this. I won't those that refuse to give birth to more kids these days. It is not easy raising child anymore especially if they are more than two. If the parents consider the huge sacrifice and financial aspect it involves then little are we going to award blame. Government has a lot to do in that regard. They can make a policy that will make it easy to raise kids by either subsidising babies stuff and support the parents to some extent. I also think the social setting is essential too. The way people see relationships these days is one another level. This is almost happenings all over the world. People now prefer to look for perfect partner on social and often end up being disappointed since online doesn't always translate to being real in the physical world.
The support in Finland for kids is pretty good - it doesn't help. Money isn't the issue, lifestyle is.
I, like you, do not share the interventionist ideas perhaps because life put me in the place where those aids suppose an advantage as you describe it, now there is something that bothers me much more and it is the abuse, the mockery, the lack of freedom, the lack of opportunities that terrifies me much more, it bothers me too much the little political cohesion between our ideas, and the actions executed above all, which encompasses the BELIEFS that separate people.
I don't have a lot of positive thoughts about how the future is going to be. I hope my thoughts are incorrect.
Neither time comes back, nor life repeats itself, it only remains for us to be stronger than ever, so that our thoughts are full of wisdom and calm...it's not easy, at least you have to keep trying.
I agree with you that the falling birth rate is not just about money, but also about relationships and how people connect today. It is true that online life has made it harder for many to build long-term bonds in real life. I also think many people avoid commitment because they fear disappointment. Your point about schools becoming empty is powerful, it really shows how much society will change if this trend continues.
The trend has to continue for a while at least, because it has already started. The emptying schools is a lagging indicator.
True, it’s surprising how long the effects take to appear.
These youtubers make an interesting point.
Whenever they suggest or champion ideas that might convince people to have babies, they're accused of wanting a 'Handmaid's Tale' future.
They counter by pointing out that that dystopian future is inevitable if we don't turn this ship around.
There's zero chance the last 100 fertile women in a city are deciding for themselves how many children they have and by whom.
It's like warning about something bad is seen as encouraging it. As if the person at the beach yelling "Shark" is inviting sharks.
I've been watching this Victorian highlands manhunt for Dezi Freeman after he shot a couple of cops who came to arrest him and took off into the mountains; and the online discourse around it.
Myself and many like me have been trying to warn people for years, since before the covid silliness, that the country is on a dark path toward civil war.
That the police need to change how they act and be once again seen by the public as a part of society, not as a part of government.
Then we get told we're encouraging this behaviour, supporting him, championing his cause (whatever that is, I've never met the guy).
I'm yelling 'Shark' so you'll get out of the water because I don't want bloodshed.
I'm not cheering for sharks.
My perspective is shaped by a lifetime in India, where I've seen a constant, fierce competition for everything from a quality education to a decent home. The equation has always been simple: demand far exceeds supply. I've always felt this was a consequence of our country's vast population and a very natural desire to aspire to a better life, one that matches the prosperity of the Western world.
It's easy to focus on our own challenges, but the reality is that the struggle is global. Despite a slowing global population growth rate, countless individuals worldwide still work grueling hours for minimal pay.
For India, a unique challenge lies ahead. While we currently have a demographic advantage with a large young workforce, this will shift in the coming decades. We are on track to have a massive elderly population. This makes it more urgent than ever to focus on a sustainable future.
We must improve our living conditions now, so that the next generation doesn't have to face the same resource scarcity and hardships that we have.
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I remember when I first started in my district we had close to 1600 students. Now we have slowly declined over the years and we are sitting around 1100. It's sad. It's all over too. Then you have districts down where my inlaws live and they have to build schools because the old ones can't hold everyone.
hmmmmmmm, I see this is a problem for many countries. I usually here of Japan. Here in USA, I don't think its a problem // yet. Funny, I was just telling my aunt how I got a vescectomy as soon as I had my 2nd kid.
Having children is costly, and there are other factors besides that. Reproductive system problems have arisen due to a lack of nutrition and exercise. Some people have to pay several years' worth of salaries for treatment. Furthermore, people want to spend the time they spend raising children on themselves. In the past, marriage was necessary to have sex. Nowadays, people can marry without having sex. Technology makes it much easier.
Nowadays, people believe they can live without needing anyone else. It makes more sense for them to live a life without getting married.
Although the birth rate is low today, a few years ago, during the time of our grandmothers, a woman had about 10-12 children during her reproductive years. Over time, this changed and started decreasing to 1-2 children as the cost of having children became high. Due to the busy lifestyle and the lack of loving relationships, proper commitment to family relationships is not seen. Where it is difficult to make a commitment, relationships stop and attention to having children is decreasing. However, with the culture prevailing in Asian countries, the birth rate has not decreased significantly due to the mandatory birth of children after entering into marriage.
In the past, marriage was a necessity, so many people got married. As a result, children were born into the family after having sex. At that time, birth control methods were not widely available. But nowadays, under the concept of living together, people engage in sexual activities even without marriage, and there is no effort to have children because there is lust, not love. Now, because birth control methods are widely available, this situation has arisen because women only expect their own pleasure instead of children.
Relationships can’t survive when everyone treats each other like ticking bombs. At some point compromise, patience and grace matter more than impossible standards or we even blaming society. The burden of performance is more on us, that's what I think
I think another factor is the decline of religion. Pentecostal churches ban birth control and as a result a lot of families in those US churches have 5 to 12 children even these days...