What ongoing NATO expansion?
I think the map is self explanatory; in the geopolitical sphere it is clear that this can be interpreted as a threat to Russia (since a NATO membership also involves increased military activity/weapons).
Then why has Russia emptied its garrisons near the borders of Norway, Finland and the Baltics of nearly all combat formations if it fears NATO so much? Russia doesn't like NATO and that is for one reason: it makes it far less capable of bullying Eastern European countries and treating the entire region as its own backyard.
And as I already stated, Ukraine wasn't going to be able to join NATO as that move was blocked by France and Germany. Russia's invasion has revitalized NATO, strengthened its purpose and caused Finland to join it, soon followed by Sweden.
The previous significant round NATO enlargement was 18 YEARS before Russia's large scale invasion of Ukraine.
There are quite a lot of media outlets writing about this topic; while sanctions definitely have hurt Russia's economy (as your pointed out), they have not been enough to stifle the war effort (in that sense I shouldn't have used the word "failed").
They have not been sufficient to stop the war effort but they have done a lot to increase the cost of the war for Russia. Russia's long-term prospects are very bleak. I just finished listening to an video by a Russian energy expert currently living in Uzbekistan about how even the oil and gas sectors are in deep trouble without Western technology. Operating Russia's arctic oil and gas fields has depended on Western companies like Halliburton and Schlumberger that have pulled away from Russia.
If anything, Russia's military has become much stronger than previously (that is also evident by being able to produce more ammunition than NATO):
The Russian military is DEFINITELY NOT stronger than it was before the invasion of Ukraine. The army in particular has lost so much personnel and equipment that it would take Russia 5-10 years to reconstitute and rebuild its capabilities to the same level as before the war if a ceasefire begins now.
Ammunition production is important but it's not the whole story. Ukraine has artillery supremacy. Ukraine is destroying considerably more Russian artillery pieces than vice versa. This is because of the Western tube and rocket artillery systems given to Ukraine. They have longer range, are more precise and have better shoot and scoot capabilities. The Ukrainian artillery has a faster and more accurate kill chain, which involves intelligence and reconnaissance, targeting and fire control. They're capable of inflicting more damage with fewer shells.
Russians have been firing such a massive volume of shells that their tubes are wearing out, which degrades their range and accuracy. Their military industry is currently incapable of outproducing their rate of daily losses in Ukraine.
HIMARS is a much better rocket artillery system than anything the Russians can field (except in range with GMLRS rockets only, ATACMS changes that). It can complete many more fire missions per day than the Russians can with any system of theirs because the rocket pods come with the GMLRS rockets (all GPS guided) already loaded onto them at the factory and because the pods are loaded onto the launcher using a winch where as the Russian systems require that the rockets be manually unloaded from their boxes, the fuses manually attached to them and for the rockets to be loaded manually one by one.
Russian logistics and medevac systems are in poor shape. They're also not rotating their troops in Ukraine for political reasons. Putin doesn't want another big wave of mobilization before the 2024 presidential election. This will have a very negative impact on morale.
Overall I have listened a lot to John Mearsheimer, Colonel Douglas McGregor etc. that have quite a different opinion on the matter and to my knowledge quite accurately predicted the ongoing conflict.
Douglas McGregor has been completely wrong about how the Ukrainian military would perform right from the start. He is likely to be on Moscow's payroll. Scott Ritter is a convicted pedophile and thus disgraced and also likely on Moscow's payroll. Mearsheimer correctly predicted that Russia would respond drastically to Ukraine's attempt at joining the West but he's been wrong about Russia's capabilities.
I think we just have different sources of Information. The truth lies probably in between.
The Russians masters of disinformation. It's a classic technique of theirs to push outrageous lies through various channels and have naive Western journalists and other observers who strive for objectivity to consider them at least partially true.
With the Kremlin, the best working hypothesis is always to assume every denial (of something very inconvenient to them) is a confirmation and that every accusation is a confession. The connection between what the Russian and the truth is tenuous at best.
The destruction of the Black Sea fleet headquarters where there staff of the Black Sea fleet was said to be working at the time according to Ukraine led to very bizarre theatrics on the part of the Russians. The commander was shown at a high level meeting via video link where his image was almost still and quite blurry and where he didn't say anything. There was also a strange white cloth that looked like a sheet under his head as if he had been lying on a bed. When people questioned that, the Russians released a recording of him delivering prizes in a ceremony to soldiers in the Black Sea fleet. What was not mentioned was that this prize giving ceremony was held PRIOR to the bombing of the headquarters. Then then Russians started to discredit the commander with the apparent purpose to remove him without fanfares, which would be convenient if he indeed were dead.
That is the sort of contortions you can expect the Russians to resort to to cover up their failings or their crimes. Russia is among the most corrupt countries in the world. It's been that way always. But post-Cold War Russia is probably worse as Stalin's purges and the program to imprison political opponents or even random people by the millions caused the criminal subculture to spill over to mainstream society. When the Soviet Union fell, all government property was transferred through dubious methods into the hands of the oligarch class and from them to the securocratic elite via shakedowns, protection rackets and so on.
Criminality, lying, lack of transparency and coverups are part and parcel of Russian society. I know there are many in crypto who paint Western societies with the same brush. The reality is that every Western pathology afflicts Russia in ways that are MUCH WORSE.
Thus all official Russian or pro-Russian sources should be considered full of shit until proven accurate. The standard of proof should be very high when their claims are considered.
The problem is that this can be said for every news media outlet and every state. Everyone has an agenda these days and we can assume that almost everything we hear or see is not the "truth". Recent technology has only made this worse.
My point was that you can reasonably expect this to be MUCH WORSE on the Russian side. The assumption you are making here is exactly what the Russians would want you to make.
Information warfare is the only arena where Russia is actually stronger than the West. They've perfected it and its victims are numerous.
I recommend Geir Giles' book Russia's War on Everybody: And What it Means for You.
https://www.amazon.com/Russias-War-Everybody-What-Means/dp/1350255084
looks like an interesting read, thanks