Sorry @dreemsteem, got here a little too late to upvote your original post... but I'll throw in my $0.02 worth...
To just go straight to your post title, I think Hive's chances for survival are excellent. BUT... (yes, there's a but...) perhaps it's wise to view this as precisely "Hive, the blogging venue" vs. "Hive, the ecosystem." The ecosystem is fine, thanks to dApps like Splinterlands, Hive Punks, 3Speak, LeoFinance's "Project Blank" and lots of others in development.
In the interest of brevity — as you requested — part of the "issue" we often seem to face is that Hive (and its predecessor) is often touted as a haven/alternative to censorship and demonitization. And that IS a strong selling point, to be sure, particularly given how MSM is ready to cut off anyone who steps even slightly out of line.
That said, I have been (in various capacities) part of assorted "free speech" endeavors for more that a couple of decades predating Steem Hive and my experience is that there is a... "loud segment"... within the freedom of speech/expression/action movement that ACTUALLY seem to be crusading more for "freedom from CONSEQUENCES" of their speech/actions. As in, attendant with the freedom to SPEAK, there is an unwritten "demand" to not be disagreed with." And they cry foul the moment someone suggests they actually are full of $hit.
Again, that's not a Hive issue, that's a Human Nature issue.
The other thing about so-called "freedom" is that it tends to place the highest value on the individual. That means it's often easy for "MY Opinion" being more important than what is beneficial for an entire community. I being this up because the typical forcefulness of this mindset is often what drowns out (and frustrates) the soft spoken type mentioned in your case study.
I have seen many such "good people" leave, some with a fight, some just vanishing. A personal favorite dropped off the map in July after years of being a prominent "Hive Evangelist." I have also had content plagiarized and copied... for over 25 years online.
I would love to address more of your post, but it'll turn into a dissertation nobody'll read. And maybe that's part of how I am getting burned out. Nobody really cares about those with 25 years' web content creation experience. My response to which has long been "If you think being decentralized and on the blockchain somehow solves the vagaries of HUMAN NATURE, you have another thing coming!"
Thanks for writing this, and starting the discussion!
=^..^=
Absolutely loved this comment and I was into it.. so I didn't even think it was longish (though most probably would say it was)
I really loved the middle of it - and I agree with you... on all points. freedom from consequences. I wonder how this became a "thing"??? When did people start getting confused? How did this entitlement become such a force? I really don't know. But yes - blockchain will not solve human nature
and the things we see in the world (that we can't control) will be the things we see on hive (that we can't control)
I think part of the solution is to treat it the same way we treat the world. Stick to your community, explore and travel, but realize that you can only truly control your own actions - not others. So when people suck, walk away and let them suck. Help the ones in need, draw them in, and be ok with not helping everyone (because most do not want your help and you'll only end up being frustrated beyond belief)
i think i'm rambling. lol but i get it. i get you! LOL. you're my kind of people hahahaha