Famous wrong tech predictions: 1977 "There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home" (Ken Olsen, Founder of Digital Equipment Corp)

[vikisecrets]

Berühmte Fehleinschätzungen:

1977
Niemand braucht einen Computer zu Hause
Ken Olsen, Founder Digital Equipment Corp

2001
Das Internet wird kein Massenmedium
Matthias Horx, Zukunftsforscher

2011
Bitcoin: Irrsinn Alternativwährungen
Eric Frey, DerStandard

2013
Bitcoin gehört verboten
Eric Frey, DerStandard

Mittlerweile gibt es weltweit laut Schätzungen 1.5 Milliarden PCs auf der Welt und 6.6 Milliarden Smartphones, die mit dem Internet verbunden sind.

Laut einer Studie der Fed haben in den USA im Jahr 2021 12% der Erwachsenen Kryptowährungen gehalten.

Was sagt ihr dazu? Manchmal irren sich Zukunftsforscher gewaltig.

Billboard in Vienna with old quotes: "Nobody needs a computer at home"

English

Famous misjudgments:

1977
There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home
Ken Olsen, Founder Digital Equipment Corp

2001
The Internet will not become a mass medium
Matthias Horx, futurologist

2011
Bitcoin: Alternative currencies are insane
Eric Frey, DerStandard

2013
Bitcoin should be banned
Eric Frey, DerStandard

There are now an estimated 1.5 billion PCs in the world and 6.6 billion smartphones connected to the Internet.

According to a Fed study, 12% of adults in the U.S. have held cryptocurrencies in 2021.

What do you think? Do you have other examples? Sometimes futurologists are very wrong.

Sources

[1] Fed Survey: 12% of US Adults Held Crypto in 2021 https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2022/05/23/fed-survey-12-of-us-adults-held-crypto-in-2021/
[2] "Irrsinn Alternativwährungen" https://www.derstandard.at/story/1304554254077/irrsinn-alternativwaehrungen
[3] "Internet wird kein Massenmedium" https://www.derstandard.at/story/496477/internet-wird-kein-massenmedium
[4] "Bitcoins gehören verboten" https://www.derstandard.at/story/1385170130002/bitcoins-gehoeren-verboten
[5] "Stoppt den Kryptowahnsinn" https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000135974572/stoppt-den-kryptowahnsinn

Live your Secrets and Hive Prosper 🍯

xx Viki @vikisecrets

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Comments

[eniolw]

LOL, you remind me of this talk by Neil deGrasse Tyson:

[noctury]

«Das iPhone wird nie im Leben einen bedeutenden Marktanteil erlangen. Keine Chance.»

Steve Ballmer, Ex-CEO Microsoft

«Von Facebook wird in fünf bis sechs Jahren kein Mensch mehr reden.»

Matthias Horx, Zukunftsforscher

[stayoutoftherz]

Der Chef von IBM meinte 1943:
"Ich denke, dass es einen Weltmarkt für vielleicht fünf Computer gibt"

[eniolw]

LOL. Check out my comment to see the ones Neil D Tyson cited, they're amusing too. I don't post the link again not to spam :)

[chinito]

😂🤣 hahaha!

all smart ppl i'm sure, but yea..

[mochita]

Smartphone ppl for sure

[der-prophet]

Man sollte halt nie auf die Meinung eines einzelnen hören.

Als die Dampflok erfunden wurde hieß es auch, dass der Mensch bereits alles erfunden hat.

[crypto.defrag]

Your post was upvoted and reshared on @crypto.defrag

[w74]

Wie war das mit der Kernspaltung nochmal? Wäre hätte gedacht ...

[nevies]

People should stop trying to predict the future with so much certainty, damn it. No matter how convinced you are about the future you should always state your prediction noting that anything can happen and that the future is unruly.

[hashir123]

I think the one prediction according to PC's are is the most wong

[jfang003]

There are a lot of predictions and I would think that the entire smartphone market was also something people didn't accept until it took off.

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[mochita]

Cause they are financed by fiat