Part 4/10:
The upcoming wave of AI integration into various sectors raises essential questions about its broad impact on the economy. If we consider the economy as a collection of tasks, estimates indicate that AI has the potential to transform up to 20% of all tasks in the workplace. However, only a fraction of these tasks—estimated at around 23%—can be automated cost-effectively at a significant scale.
Using historical data about automation's effects, we find that if 4.6% of all tasks are taken over by AI, the resulting reduction in overall production costs would amount to a mere 0.66% over a decade. When considering capital deepening, this adds up to a projected 1.1% increase in GDP over the same timeframe—a modest yet measurable impact.