Part 3/12:
When Will Superintelligence Arrive?
The timeline for achieving superintelligence remains uncertain. Different factions within the industry offer contrasting opinions:
The San Francisco Consensus: A group predominantly based in Silicon Valley believes superintelligence could emerge within 3 to 4 years, driven by exponential scaling laws and compounding effects in AI development.
Skepticism and Longer Timelines: Eric Schmidt counters that this might be overly optimistic, suggesting that realizing true superintelligence will likely take longer, possibly decades. The complexity of replicating human-like creativity, abstraction, and intuition—traits exemplified by pioneers like Newton, Einstein, or Picasso—poses significant technological hurdles.