Part 9/10:
A central underlying theme is the shifting power dynamics in the Indo-Pacific, especially amid perceived U.S. retrenchment. McGregor explained that trade and geopolitics are deeply intertwined in China’s calculus, with trade sanctions serving as tools of political leverage. While China has shown it can punish countries like Australia through tariffs and other measures, it cannot replace the United States’ leadership role in regional security and strategic stability.
The absence of a strong American presence risks creating a strategic vacuum that China may attempt to fill, but as McGregor pointed out, China’s ambitions are limited. The U.S. remains the key balancer, and maintaining its engagement in the region is crucial for stability.