BTC ATH: Now What!

Well, we are trading not quite at the All Time High yet, but we are close. As per several measures we are actually there and crossed it. Like highest monthly close, or 2017's dollars vs 2020's dollars! Whatever, these are details! Minor Details as my friend Bernard from Malibu Commercial will say!

At ATH there is always Sunshine! This is the time you begin to hear about bitcoin from your local FM radio station, CNBC, your neighbor (behind the Covid mask), your Uber driver.... and so on. It is always Rainbows and Sunshine here. No matter how many times we have been there it is always this way. So I thought I better look at the chart and see what a 'correction' looks like in BTC. Just for fun! I don't predict price, simply because I can't and I don't find it necessary.

Some Scenarios

Here is the weekly chart of BTC showing both the 2017 high and the current price of BTC/USD. Earlier today BTC traded as high as 19,900. Where it is 20K or not does not matter for our immediate discussion. For all practical purposes it is a ATH. So question is what will happen now. Is it going to continue to go to the MOON or it will come down a little bit?

I don't know the answer to that question. But there is one thing I know as a fact, nothing goes to MOON any more. Apollo Missions are over for a long time and Elon is not that rich, not yet anyways :)

Important point to note, the vertical scale of that chart above is log scale. This is important because:

We need to catch very small numbers (in 2016) and very large numbers (2017, 2020)
Log scale forces items to plot is percentages that are equal everywhere in the chart, meaning $700 to $1400 is a 100% move (or double in price). In this chart it will be the same distance as a move from $10,000 to $20,000 (or double in price). This, in my opinion, is realistic, because in linear scale, $10,000 to $20,000 move looks like BTC is really going to the MOON! :) I digress :)

I have drawn a few simple things on this same BTC weekly chart now. I have drawn an intermediate term trendline connecting the 2019 and 2020 lows. This is a reasonable trendline 'post-adoption' of mainstream knowledge, we can say. Then I have drawn two corrections:

To ~$7000, which is about 65% correction, as a blue translucent bar
To ~$4700, which is about 77% correction, as a red translucent bar, to the trendline

None of these are meant to be a prediction (I stayed away from Fibbonacci numbers on purpose!). It is just meant to be what-if scenarios. My only point is if corrections like these or something in between happens; what happens to the intermediate trend of BTC? The answer is very simple: NOTHING!

Nothing about the longer term view of BTC changes at least technically, if such a correction happens. Will it happen? When will it happen? I have no idea obviously. My point is if that happens, I will be buying more BTC :)

Disclaimer: This is NOT professional advice, this is all just my own opinion and experience. I am NOT a Certified Financial Adviser. Consult professionals for any financial, accounting or legal related questions you have.

Charts are created in Tradingview.com, which is a free service.

Posted Using LeoFinance ^Beta

But there is one thing I know as a fact, nothing goes to MOON any more.

Chinese robots are a thing :p

BBC News - China's Chang'e-5 Moon mission probe touches down
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-55148998

I watched the recent peak live on Binance, lol. Took 1 day to beat the previous new ath.

I'm also liking the build up of news. Waiting for 20k is great for that becahse everyone will be watching when it happens. We got to 19855.5 yesterday which is 99.2% of the 'goal', not gonna get rich playing that spread.

I'm not much of a technicals person, but on a more fundamental level, I don't think btc sinking below 5k makes much sense without serious regulation news. At this point everyone expects g7 and especially usa to crackdown so they can inflate their currencies some more.

Thoughts on BTC ATH!

BTC ATH: Now What!

Some Scenarios