of the real economy to occur, I think we need to move toward a normal financial market. I don't want that to be a rapid descent, because a rapid descent can have a secondary effect that can cause a hard landing in the real economy. And that's what I'd like to avoid. So the warning was to tell the Fed, you were very, very dovish. You've been very, very dovish all year because you felt that the financial conditions were restrictive. Every presser financial conditions are restrictive, including the most recent one. When they're not, they're just not restrictive. The economy is going between 2.5 and 3% real GDP, while very short dated PCE inflation is near target, longer term, one year. And certainly most recently, a tilting up of the one year shows inflation above target, CPI is, of course, CPI is still well above 3%. And jobs are historically strong, if not slightly less hot than they were in the midst of COVID. And so that's not restrictive financial conditions. That's financial (8/40)
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