stunning charts you had in the book because their meltdown scenario I think was like point ... Well, I'm coming to that. So one might think the Fed did better, but of course it did not, which is to say that there is a meeting on August 5th of 2008 of the FOMC, the Federal Open Markets Committee, which sets interest rate policy. And in preparation for that meeting, the staff of the Federal Reserve prepares some macroeconomic forecasts. And you saw that actually for that early August meeting, six weeks before the Lehman crisis, the Fed staff raises its forecast for the growth rate of the U.S. economy. So they obviously do not think that there is an imminent crisis. In fact, as you've pointed out, it's even more extreme than that because the Fed staff is asked to produce a forecast for the nightmare scenario. I think it had a technical term of severe financial stress for the U.S. financial system. And the Fed produces an outlook which suggests that in that case the U.S. economy will have (31/44)
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