collapse. In other words, where was that risk most likely to manifest and when we actually got those calls right. But what we failed to do is recognize the capability of governments to step in and change the rules. So we ended up doing very, very well until governments stepped in and changed the mark to mark accounting rules and accelerated the quantitative easing. And we've been short all of those sectors and having a fantastic year. To be fair, I had some big commodity bets on. So it's not like we had a huge double digit year accruing because the commodity bets offset a lot of our bets against the banks, et cetera. But the unbelievable reversal that happened when they reversed the market accounting rules and introduced TARP and quantitative QE1, QE2, QE3 were extremely disorienting and disheartening. And that set us on a journey. And one of the individuals that was really a huge catalyst for my shifted thinking was Philip Tetlock, who I'm sure you're familiar with and is a great (7/45)
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