We've discussed this you and I but I will say that ANYONE that thought opening the money tap to cure a covid slowdown wouldn't be inflationary is deluded at best.
The housing market is contracting everywhere in the US, and 'tourist' destinations are in collapse. A hell of a lot of places were bought for short term rentals (AirBnB) and many, if not most, tourist locations have taken steps to curb the problems that come with weekend rentals. In some places that I know the citizenry is in revolt (Hawaii and San Diego) due to bad actors in the short term rental business. Plus it has driven 'worker grade' housing prices way up so the workers have to move on. On top of record inflation and high interest? What could go wrong?
I also know that the RE market here in Arizona is going south and that there are a lot of new home starts that will not end up being new home finishes any time soon.
Predictable is a real good word for all this. How long until the central banks open the money faucet again due to rising energy costs? I think not long. At least we should get some infrastructure for our pain with energy. More solar and wind.
and conniving in the midrange - at the worst?
It is amazing that people who are renting are able to live anywhere these days - it is all going to end in a lot of slums, crime and the average person worse off financially, socially and with their opportunities available to them.
Every day it seems, I read of a construction company collapse from Australia. Considering how much they are getting paid to build, that is worrying. The supplychains markups are insane on building material. To keep costs down, our builder is using offcuts of gyproc for the walls, when he would have used fresh sheets before. Not because it makes much difference for us (due to the size of the space) but it is his habit now.
I suspect, it won't be too long before a reversal and, the markets will drive again.
One last price gouge on energy through the winter perhaps.