I bought the 4 year cycle earlier as well, but when I really started to investigate I found that the cycles have been getting longer. This is whether you measure it from halving to market top or bottom to market top or even top to top.
Every new cycle from bottom to top has been about 300 days longer to the previous one. I don't think that's trivial. If the current cycle would add a similar amount that would actually put us for a market top in Q4 2022. Not banking on the exact timing, could be earlier or could be later.
The only 4 year cycle really was the last one. People had their predictions way off thanks to recency bias. There's no reason when looking at the data that we would have to have EOY market top.
Definitely no reason to think we're in a bear market. If we broke down under 30k then I would have to re-evaluate, but I don't see it happening.
If you haven't made a leo post on this you should! I've seen a couple of others talk about this as well.
Yeah, I've made a couple on the topic already 😉 Will return onto the theme again probably.
Interesting.
Another year of green would be IMO really unlikely because all markets are a bit fucked.
On the other side, how to bust a market? With irrational pumps to the moon. So why not :D
Would be really nice, but i don't see it :)
You have a good point. Bitcoin has existed only when the general market has gone up for 10+ years. So there's no real data on how a larger down trend would affect Bitcoin.
That's true.
To crazy times to predict on that topic in general. Because governments do also black swan events all over the world.
Since Bigger boys trade crypto too, I would add to the traditional assets market (with high beta). Maybe some mix out of techstock/bond and cash/gold.
And in terms of liquidity crisis over the markets, I could imagine Bitcoin would hit the same as every other asset.
In terms of risk/ reward. I don't see a reason to buy at those levels.
Hodl and balance time IMO.