Alright Guys,
Bitcoin has moved back above $50k and I admit I don't know what to expect from Bitcoin for the rest of the year, generally speaking December is a strong month for Bitcoin, but I really was buying into the 4 year cycle narrative and it certainly doesn't seem like we are going to have the huge run many were predicting.
Last night when I asked Banjo about fear and greed the fear number was at 18 which is extreme fear. I tossed the image into Imgflip Meme Generator to mock up my feeling on the best times to buy and sell. When others are afraid buy and when others are greedy, sell. Through the most part of the cycle, I just hodl, I don't do a lot of day trading, but also.. not none.
I took a peak at the fear index again after BTC went back above $50,000 and it turns out that little price jump was enough to ease the fear a little. We are now at 25 which is a much more neutral
A quick look at the Bitcoin News, it's a mix and none of it overly bullish.
The chart looks strong, and I still expect some pump in December, but there are just no clear signals for me at this point.
I do not buy into the idea we have entered another multi-year bear season.. I also admit I have a bias and I could be in denial.
What are your thoughts?
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I bought the 4 year cycle earlier as well, but when I really started to investigate I found that the cycles have been getting longer. This is whether you measure it from halving to market top or bottom to market top or even top to top.
Every new cycle from bottom to top has been about 300 days longer to the previous one. I don't think that's trivial. If the current cycle would add a similar amount that would actually put us for a market top in Q4 2022. Not banking on the exact timing, could be earlier or could be later.
The only 4 year cycle really was the last one. People had their predictions way off thanks to recency bias. There's no reason when looking at the data that we would have to have EOY market top.
Definitely no reason to think we're in a bear market. If we broke down under 30k then I would have to re-evaluate, but I don't see it happening.
If you haven't made a leo post on this you should! I've seen a couple of others talk about this as well.
Yeah, I've made a couple on the topic already 😉 Will return onto the theme again probably.
Interesting.
Another year of green would be IMO really unlikely because all markets are a bit fucked.
On the other side, how to bust a market? With irrational pumps to the moon. So why not :D
Would be really nice, but i don't see it :)
You have a good point. Bitcoin has existed only when the general market has gone up for 10+ years. So there's no real data on how a larger down trend would affect Bitcoin.
That's true.
To crazy times to predict on that topic in general. Because governments do also black swan events all over the world.
Since Bigger boys trade crypto too, I would add to the traditional assets market (with high beta). Maybe some mix out of techstock/bond and cash/gold.
And in terms of liquidity crisis over the markets, I could imagine Bitcoin would hit the same as every other asset.
In terms of risk/ reward. I don't see a reason to buy at those levels.
Hodl and balance time IMO.
I still think 100k is possible by year end since people are fearful. However I think it will depend on how prices move over the next few days. People will only jump onto the trade once they feel safer.
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Crypto becoming too big to fail.
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that's true :D
It will stay, but swing :D
You gotta be prepared for the worst case
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And i remember people think to 3k$ Bitcoin, "we are in Bullrun".
And markets become crazy volatile these days.
Prepare for both. Balance and both directions become good.
Thats how i handle it.
I love this!
We had that crypto winter back in 2018-2019. We should expect it at some point, and be ready to capitalize when it happens. Strike while the iron is hot, as they say...
I love the idea of the fear index - it seems with the highs and lows of Hive lately we are in "omg sky is falling" from some people, when we only have to look at what Hive was priced at just in summer :)
That's true it's done okay especially recently. I think when so many people see so much potential and so many things happening.. They get a little emo when it doesn't pay off as quickly as they would like!
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Still $100K by the end of the year.
Back to NGU would be nice.
Dow theory is still intact ( in terms of Bullrun). So from that side why not.
Where do you think comes the buying power from? I don't see now any big ballers coming to pump it.
It would be nice if the uptrend resumes.
I posted a while back that I thought the whales and institutions would be looking to milk this level as much as possible. What is concerning is the volumes but that could be just that nobody is really looking at selling here, which means this level could go on for a while until accumulators are happy with their bags. the lower the volume, the longer the wait...
I have been hearing that January is the new December. I don't know how accurate that is, but people seem to think that is when we are going to see the next big bull run. I have heard it from several sources now. Who knows...
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Correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought we usually see a drop in January, right around the Chinese New Year.
That's what I thought too, yet here we are in December and things are not going up like people expected. I don't think anyone really knows at this point.
Time to consult the crystal ball!
Made me think of this shit!!