First off, thanks to @thebusycat (on Noises: https://noise.cash/u/TheBusyCat ) for pointing this out to which made me have a closer look at the Quest Potions.
When it comes down to Splinterlands and pretty much everything else, I need to be believe there is a positive expected return in order to buy into something which is the reason I never bought packs in the past always just going to the market instead to find cheap cards. I also never touched anything in terms of potions in the shop until yesterday as the explosion in both card prices and DEC value now makes it so that the quest potions have huge +EV value to the point where I can see it getting abused and nerfed in the near future!
Especially for new players who want to get in on Splinterlands but fear that prices are already too high and risky, the Daily Quest potions (See the insane value they bring in calculations below) allow them to get at least 6 Chests each day at a cheap price that pays itself back easily. Those that get in with my Referral Link on top will get 100 DEC and a bunch of free card rentals giving them a head start to do well in the game. See the full Sign-Up Deal I'm still offering!
Quest Potions Expected Value
So a quest potion can be bought for 0.75$ as the standard price in the shop when paying with credits, or 750 DEC at the 1000 DEC = 1$ Peg conversion rate making it 5.5x as expensive given the premium price DEC is trading at. So for that 0.75$ you basically get 5 extra chests for completing a daily quest that includes items that are worth a multiple compared to what they used to go for.
Quest Potions Discounts
Buying the Quest Potions also counts toward the Discounts Guilds are getting depending on how much DEC they sacrificed into it.
For me personally, this comes at a 8% Discount as I'm part of the DEC Hunters Guild! This brings the potions at 0.69$ before the Bulk buy Discount of 10+1 Free.
So a single Quest Potion costs me around 0.63$ and gives 5 Extra Reward Chests Daily!
Probabilities Reward Chests
This is a post I made on noise.cash last month regarding the probabilities.
Based on this 100 Extra Chests (12.6$ cost for me) are expected to give
1x 2000 DEC: Value 11.1$
33x Potions: They will come in handy when opening Chaos Legion Packs and have an average base value of 0.225$ not counting the pemium cards go for so 7.425$
33x Random DEC Amount: based on the last 39 DEC amounts that came from Chests I earned 2352 DEC so on average 60 DEC in each chests. Let's say I was wildly lucky and the real expectation is only 40 DEC, this still adds up to 1320 DEC expected out of 100 Reward Chests or 7.3$
33x Card: based on the probabilities and the average values shown of kiokizz.github.io tis adds up to :
24.8 Common Cards at 0.275$ Average Price = 6.8$
6.6 Rare Cards at 0.557$ Average Price = 3.68$
1.32 Epic Cards at 3.50$ Average Price = 4.63$
0.264 Legendary Cards at 21.42$ Average Price = 5.65$
This adds up to 20.76$ in expected value not even counting the chance of getting Golden Foild Editions which are worth multiple times more.
Conclusion
100 Reward Chests Right now at the base price of the Quest Potions needed to get them costs 14.25$ while they have an expected value of roughly 50$ which offers insane value to the point where I'm pretty sure it will get nerfed sooner than later. It reminds me of the time when the Starter Set (now Summoner's Spellbook) actually included all the Rare and common cards from the beta Set & the time when cards from loot chests could be opened with potions. As more people get to know about the value the quest potions offer
Previous Posts With Things I was doing in Splinterlands:
- Splinterlands | Euphoria Phase & Flipping Packs For Profit Plan!
- Splinterlands | I'm Buying More SPT Tokens!
- Splinterlands | Reasons I'm Buying More Cards & DEC
- Splinterlands | Reasons DEC Price Will Go Up +33%
For more Info Around the Splinterlands Game see...
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Hey mate, take a look at my series on the profitability of using the Quest Potions! It's been pretty interesting
Nice and good idea for a blogging series!
I bought 10 for $7.50 yesterday and got 1 free. I did it spontaneously having never bought before. I wonder if I should be more now lol.
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I initially bought 1 on my main account and afterward 10+1 on my alt account before doing the exact math as the 2000 DEC chest alone make it a no-brainer. By now I just got 100+15 on both my accounts out of fear that it will get changed sooner than later since it's such a good deal.
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We were discussing this on discord the other day! I will share your post on our channel ✅ #NFT #crytocurrency #Splinterlands #YieldGuildGames
It's going to be interesting to see if they are going to change these or not since it's going to be a matter of time before everyone starts using them which will make the rewards go out at a ridiculous rate especially since I can see many even make multiple accounts. I guess a solution could be to tie them as a benefit toward SPS holders allowing those who stake to be able to profit from them more. I would really be surprised if it doesn't get nerfed so I did Fomo into 115 of them for both my main and alt account to have me set for the next 115 days.
I am thinking of doing the same, but what if they nerf them after we buy? Suddenly its 1 Chest per Quest 😭
But, at the same time the Splinterlands team wants a million people playing (at least) so the more players they can get into the game now, the better. This is early days, they need all players earning. New / Smaller players can use Quest potions to get bonus rewards every day for very little money!
At the same time by offering Game Credits at a better rate than $DEC, the Game Devs are bringing fiat into their coffers, from all over the world, so increased liquidity 🌍#visa #mastercard #AmericanExpress.
Thanks for the follow by the way 😁🙏🏻 #PeakDNoob
#NFT #Gaming #cryptocurrency #Splinterlands #dec #hivegaming
If anything, the devs don't have a record of screwing players. They take an approach that any possible exploit is the responsibility of the game so if they nerf it they won't take away from what players already bought. The only 'nerf' that can happen is them changing things for those buying after the changes took place or if new reward cards will have massively more card prints bringing down the value of individual cards that come from rewards.
From an investment in Dollars I just don't see any way it can be a bad deal even in the worst possible scenario. Main risk for me is that the price of Hive goes up more during the next 100+ days making it so that having held Hive would have been better. I'm converting DEC to Hive daily though so I'm quite sure I'll be able to recover the initial investment.
It's always a balance between giving enough to get more players and not giving too much so the Economy gets hurt. Right now with the growth the game already has had this past month, I guess protecting the economy will be more important.
Yeah I'll be buying quest potions with fiat. DEC right now is so valuable in the game! #hodl #airdrops
Thanks for this tip, now I'm tempted to buy potions!
For me, it's all about the math which adds up since it's going to be hard to lose money getting them even if they nerf them. I couldn't resist buying the 100+15 deal on both my accounts. Having competed the daily quest 700+ days in a row now, I'm quite sure I'll do the same the next 100 Days.
Good Luck!
Somebody pointed this out to me and I bought some 2 days ago. I'll have to pick up more because it is such good value for the money.
Right now based on the numbers it's ridiculous value and I do expect this to spread like wildfire to the point that every player will start stacking up of the deal stays available (and prices hold up)
That's right, buying quest potions has never been as profitable as it is now.
I really liked your article
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Thanks, I was also quite surprised doing the actual math behind the value they provide. Off course, it all depends on the prices holding up. With more and more players coming in and future cards likely having a lot more prints I do believe the current reward cards will be nice to have going forward similar to how some of the old reward cards now go for 50x the price they went for when they could be gotten from chests. In the past, even every single chest would include a reward card, those were the day :)
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BEER.Good point! Will pick up quest potions until they nerf them or until prices go back down.
Good Luck, I also picked up 100+15 on both my accounts mostly out of fear to miss out as I have a hard time not seeing them get nerfed in one way or another.
Thanks, you too! I decided to go in batches of 10+1, so if prices fall again I don't get stuck with a bunch of them at -EV. Plus I didn't want to spend so much all at once!
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Thanks as always!
It's nice to see the front page of splintertalk.io being full of articles that have effort put into them with good info. Also nice to see how new players get curated by @monster-curator making them earn some SPT they hopefully keep as it helps them grow the SPS airdrop points.
Keep up the great work!
Thanks for the detailed information.
Cheers.
Definitely useful.. bought 50 quest potions as a lot of cards and additional DEC were given after quest completion
Good luck getting some good rewards from the extra chests!
TIL about this quest potion. I used some credits I had laying around to experiment with this.
Good luck experimenting, I also did it with an initial purchase but once I saw the numbers adding up I just went for it.
I even see some players get around 5-digit DEC from quest chests. It is ridiculous. Anyone knows the numbers on that one happening?
From what I understand, the odds of how much DEC a chest has is linked to the odds of card drops. So a 5-digit DEC chest most likely equal a golden epic or legendary card which are extremely rare to get. In 2+ years of playing completing the quest daily and getting plenty of chests I only managed to once get a Golden Legendary (which I still grateful for and holding on to)
You must mean your beautiful golden Kraken. I remember playing you once and noticing it. It stood out to me because it's so rare.
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Indeed that's the one, I'm glad I never got tempted to sell it. I'm actually using it regularly on my alt account. I'm still hoping each day to get another Golden Legendary, that would be quite the dopamine rush if it ever happens again :-)
Great analysis !! Changed my mind about quest potions for sure !!!
Great calculations, i am working on buying more, but i will need to use the SPT for that, i will figure a way to do it.
Thanks for the mention.
Thank you for getting me to the point where I actually started looking into the Quest Potions.
Nice to see you got some good SPT payouts, I would not dump all of them and at least stake part of what you earn delegating it to @monster-curator. This will both give you daily passive SPT earnings from curation rewards and increase your SPS airdrop.
Regardless of what you do, Ggood Luck!
How much i need to delegate for a good income
It's linear and returns are about 0.08%-0.10% on a daily basis. It's just like everything a matter of consistency and patience. Add a little bit each day and it all compounds over time.
Thanks for sharing! - @ashikstd
