Things continue to pretty much go exactly as planned/hoped this season with another nice green week producing just over 2 units of profit. Right now I feel on top of my game and see quite a lot of value where the market is just getting it totally wrong and I also turn out to be right on it most times. I guess right now the main narrative is that watching all games and having a good view of the teams gives a different picture compared to many of the statistics the odds are based on and that is what I'm mostly going against both taking underdogs and favorites.
Looking at my numbers it are mainly the pre-game bets that are crushing it (often taking early bets also) while both live bets which often are cover bets to reduce variance and corners which historically are where my biggest edge is are both losing.
Also it's inevitable to at some point have some regression to the mean but for now, let's enjoy the nice upside. I have been extremely focused on the league putting in the needed work which actually still feels like a fun game I'm playing.
Pre-Game Preview Bets Season 2022-2023
The highlighted pre-game bets that I share in my previews also continue to go straight up with 12 bets in the last 7 days which went 8W-4L for some nice profit of +2.957 units. This brings the total this season so far at 62 bets good for +15.351 units and +24.76% ROI. Of course this is a small sample and a big upwsing but still. These over a sample of close to 500 bets tracked with flat stakes show a solid +8% ROI.
Previous 2 Seasons Result
Regular Season 2022-2023 Personal Betting Chart
At this point, I'm back to having a lot of room above the expected pink profit line to handle a correction even though the plan is to just keep grinding my way up taking each bet with the biggest edge possible. This was also the first week where I reached my target of betting 10 units or more in a week mostly because there were a couple of teams pre-game where I was willing to risk 1 unit or more on in total. A lot of it depends on what the market gives and some of these edges will become a lot harder to find as the market catches up. I do intend to keep increasing my stakes a bit though as I'm able now to take a bit more risk even though it could backfire which I'm fine with if that happens.
Season Results 2022-2023
Week 08 Results 62 Bets | 32W-26L-04P | Staked 10.849u | +2.012u Profit
Week 07 Results 76 Bets | 40W-27L-09P | Staked 09.442u | +2.310u Profit
Week 06 Results 46 Bets | 22W-15L-09P | Staked 06.422u | +0.983u Profit
Week 05 Results 56 Bets | 23W-29L-04P | Staked 08.723u | -2.211u Loss
Week 04 Results 58 Bets | 30W-22L-06P | Staked 08.230u | +1.777u Profit
Week 03 Results 43 Bets | 23W-16L-04P | Staked 06.271u | -0.162u Loss
Week 02 Results 27 Bets | 10W-16L-01P | Staked 04.515u | +0.225u Profit
Week 01 Results 44 Bets | 25W-17L-02P | Staked 06.186u | +2.050u Profit
Regular Season 2022-2023 Results
412 Bets | 205W-168L-39P | 60.639 Staked | +6.985u Profit | +11.52% ROI
Previous Seasons Personal Betting Results [6641 Bets +3.57% ROI]
Season 2021-2022 | 1364 Bets +2.72% ROI
Season 2020-2021 | 1504 Bets +4.37% ROI
Season 2019-2020 | 1406 Bets +2.48% ROI
Season 2018-2019 | 1090 Bets +2.47% ROI
Season 2017-2018 | 821 Bets +7.22% ROI
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