The bitcoin halving is less than 100 hours away now and if history repeats itself like it always does then we can expect a decent sized pump some time after this more towards the end of the year.
Back in 2012 Bitcoin did a 9900%, 2016 2900%, 2020 700% so what will 2024 bring? As we can see the numbers have been dropping quite considerably mainly down to the dollar value Bitcoin is holding. Surely a 150-250% is on the cards if we compare the percentages of each halving and how much they have dropped each time.
I cannot recall too clearly what happened last time around mainly because I was new to crypto and still learning about the crypto cycle and more importantly had my head down growing my Hive stake. Hive had just moved onto it's own blockchain and this 2020 halving happened soon after so it is no wonder I was paying no attention.
he Bitcoin rally from the halving could be different this time around depending on a number of influences. The Bitcoin miners tend to cash out and a reported $5 Billion Bitcoin could be up for sale which will help feed the Bitcoin ETF buy ins which is the other scenario we have never experienced before.
The ETF buy ins have not even started and has mainly been retail buying them so far so what will institution money do to the price is the unknown. The new money expected to flow into crypto mainly for Bitcoin could and should send the price parabolic especially as we know the interested parties are growing.
Hong Kong has passed and approved the Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF's along with the ETF's we already know from the big institutions in the US. The UK passed the ETN's which is similar to an ETF and more importantly the London Stock Exchange has stated those issuing ETN's have to physically own Bitcoin which they don't have to on other ETN share stocks. This was more about making the LSE and crypto more credible in the eyes of the investors.
Personally I am hoping for the miners to do their thing and to sell off their mined Bitcoin which would help Bitcoin move sideways and not straight up. The longer the markets move sideways the more that can be accumulated and cannot be understated how much can be achieved if this happens.
The next 6 months would define the entire cycle on what you have been able to amass because after that point we hopefully have a year left before the new cycle starts. I am not banking on the late 2025 cycle peaks happening then, but it would be a nice time. Whatever happens there will be no regrets knowing not much more could have been done on my part with regard to accumulation.
This next phase of the cycle is all about timings and selling and this will define how much you have really learned. This if done properly will set you up for the next cycle well on your way to being considered wealthy.
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Agree with a 3x for Bitcoin from this point on. My base scenario is 150-200k until next year. There might be a chance we even go towards 300-500k but I am not considering that very likely. Maybe a 10% chance. We will see what happens, that’s the fun part. We know it will go up significantly but nobody knows how much. 😅
$150K is the minimum so yes no one knows exactly how much.
I'm just waiting around to see what happens. Trying to speculate at this point is just a lesson in futility I think. Too many new factors being introduced and unknowns.
Interesting times are ahead for us all!
This is the last buying opportunity for all of us that the prices have dropped two days ago and we will see that the big event has happened. Few days are left and then we will see the next one year in prices. Will see an increase.