Since November 22, 2025, Codex has documented one continuous structure — mapped before noise, logged before hype, and now unfolding almost candle for candle.
Today, the weekly chart confirms the same ABC structure first outlined in Codex VIII.
The echo is playing out.
Then — Nov 22, 2025 (Codex VIII)
The ABC structure was mapped the day after the bottom.
Long zones, bounce targets, invalidation — all documented before price resolved.
Chart from Codex VIII — ABC structure mapped the day after the bottom.
Follow‑Up — Jan 22, 2026
Structure continued exactly as mapped.
BTC hit 98k, ETH hit 3.4k — the final retest of the 100‑week MA before the last push.
Upside target remained the 50‑week MA (classic LH zone).
Invalidation: weekly close below the 100‑week MA.
Codex Brief Follow‑Up :
https://ecency.com/hive-167922/@digi-me/codex-brief-value-logged-in
Now — Jan 30, 2026
The updated weekly chart shows the same ABC structure materializing.
The divergence, the failed reclaim, the regime shift — all aligning with the model logged weeks in advance.
Codex Brief 1 documents:
- the full wavecount from Nov → now
- why Wave 5 failed to complete
- the structural shift under the 100W MA
- the updated B‑top projection window
- and the two paths forward (reclaim vs confirmation)
This is the bridge between Codex VIII and the next pivot.
It also includes the two short setups taken this month — and how my bias flips if structure flips.
Codex Brief 1 — Wave 4, CME Gap, and the Missing Wave 5?
https://codexbrief.substack.com/p/jan-30-2026-codex-brief-1-wave-4
Early‑backer tier is still open — 50% lifetime discount until paid tiers officially launch.
For those who want the full archive as it unfolds:
https://codexbrief.substack.com/subscribe
Why This Matters
Codex has always worked the same way:
- write before
- revisit after
- let price confirm or disprove the memory
No hype.
No noise.
Just structure.
Hive remains the public archive.
Substack continues the chronology — clean, timestamped, and sustainable.
The next chapter is already being documented.
© 2025 Codex Research.
All proprietary content, analysis, format and structure are protected.
Redistribution requires written permission.
Not financial advice.
Tradejournal Links (Private Archive)
These aren’t signals. They’re echoes — timestamps left behind in my private journal. Codex is memory in motion, and these links are the proof. For my own reference.
🔗 BTC/ETH 1st short entry (Jan 14)
🔗 BTC/ETH Result snapshot (Jan 21)
🔗 BTC/ETH 2nd short entry (Jan 21)
🔗 BTC/ETH Result snapshot (Jan 30)
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Latest post, check out :
🌀 Codex Brief — Value Logged in Real Time
Christopher
Kristiansand, Norway
Source: Photos are chart-screenshots by me from Tradingview.com and screenshots from my personal trading journal.
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Thanks a lot! 😂
It's still unclear to me... but I'm not giving up. It's interesting to understand all these concepts. I see that hope isn't lost for HIVE; there's still a glimmer of hope 😅
Have a lovely weekend
Appreciate the openness. These concepts take time to click, I’ve been mapping them for years, and I’m still learning every month.
For Hive, I’m mainly looking at structure and how it has behaved in previous cycles. There’s always potential as long as the larger trend hasn’t fully broken, so following the bigger picture helps keep things grounded.
If you’re curious, the PUD posts go through the historical patterns visualy step by step, they’re a good place to start.
https://ecency.com/hive-122221/@digi-me/hive-power-up-day-1-a2471daaa4cf8
Have a great weekend as well. 😊
if btc going down, does it means we will be weeavign goodbye to the 0.1 USD for Hive? even now we are below that again.
!LOLZ
Good question. I’m looking at Hive through the same lens I used in the PUD post, the historical behaviour around the 200‑day MA and the recurring bullish divergences.
Every previous divergence has eventually bounced back into the 200D MA area, which sits around 0.15 today.
If that pattern repeats, a move back into that zone wouldn’t be surprising.
If it doesn’t repeat, and we print a new lower low first, that would be a sign of weakness rather than strength in my view.
If we’re in a broader bear phase, Hive has historically gone through several legs down before the real bottom forms. Capitulation near the end of a cycle is common across most assets, not just Hive.
If you’re curious about the full visual historical context, the PUD post breaks down all the previous cycles and how Hive behaved around each divergence.
https://ecency.com/hive-122221/@digi-me/hive-power-up-day-1-a2471daaa4cf8
Tomorrow is PUD, so I'll have to write an update on my view in it.
Thank you for visiting my post, much appreciated. Have a nice weekend.😊
Interesting but not much surprising price action the past few days. I think there's a good chance that a relief rally is upon us relatively soon potentially around the mid 90s before another leg down. Point C will be a significant point of interest to map the bottom and begin the next cycle. I've noticed that the MAs haven't made a death cross yet, is a new ATH still on the cards 🤔
Appreciate the thoughts, and I agree on the idea of a relief move.
If you’re referring to the daily 50/200 MA, that death cross already printed back on Nov 16, 2025.
If you mean the weekly cross, the projection mirrors 2022, which puts it somewhere around mid‑2026 unless structure changes.
The mid‑90s area you mention is the key reclaim zone in my model as well.
That’s the level Wave 5 would need to take back for the larger fractal to continue.
Until then, any move into that region is just a bearish retest for me.
If you look at the 2022 weekly structure: once price closed a weekly candle under the 100W MA, it never touched it again.
Today’s 100W MA sits around 87.4k, same behaviour so far.
As for a new ATH, sentiment still leans heavily that way.
In my experience, the bear phase usually ends only once the crowd fully accepts we’re in one and starts calling for much lower levels.
Structure leads.
Sentiment follows.
Right. Sentiment usually just follows what price action has done, and like you've mentioned as far as the hope is alive for another new ATH, we could trade within a range for some time with all things considered.
I've been a bit surprised with the recent correction on precious metals and was also of the idea of some rotation of sorts will come into crypto, maybe not in the foreseeable future. But now, I don't know. Can't fully wrap my head around fundamentals versus technicals versus sentiment analysis lol. Everything seems to be up in the air.
Yeah, I get what you mean. a lot of things feel “up in the air” right now.
For me it helps to anchor everything in structure first, then sentiment, and let fundamentals drift in afterwards.
Yesterday’s post ended up aligning pretty closely with today’s breakdown, but that’s mostly because the weakness was already visible in the higher‑timeframe structure. I just try to timestamp what I see so I can look back later and understand the sequence.
Whether we range for a while or continue lower will depend on how price behaves around the reclaim levels we talked about.
I’m just following the same playbook I’ve been mapping since late 2025.
Always appreciate the conversation, it’s a complex phase, and comparing notes helps.
Have a nice weekend! 😊
Right. I think that's the most important angle to focus on/put more emphasis on compared to fundamentals or sentiment in such moments of unclarity.
Structure is upstream of everything else :)
Have a wonderful weekend!
Sounds like fun.... in the gaming part ofcourse. Keep it up
🌀 Tagging the Codex crew
@zekepickleman @ph1102 @mypathtofire @nenio @tobetada @iyanpol12 @libertycrypto27 @takhar @heroldius
This isn’t new analysis — just the clean continuation of the structure we’ve been tracking together from Codex VIII → Follow‑Up → Value Log → now.