Like everyone else, I'm thoroughly enjoying HIVE's recent pump. For the last week, the price hovered around $1 - $1.15, with just a couple of small dips under $1.
However, if we zoom out a little, and try to detach ourselves emotionally, things are a bit strange. I may be over cautious here, but nevertheless I feel the need to share my thoughts.
First of all, the recent pumps happened on a relatively small volume. This may indicate the actual supply is very thin, and the depth of the order books in exchanges is shrinking. This means the price moves faster, as we can all see, but it also means it can move faster in either direction, not necessarily up.
Second, Bitcoin dumped at the same time, and this type of inverse correlation between BTC and alts is still happening: whenever BTC dips, value moves into alts, alts go up. And when BTC pumps, value flows out from alts, into BTC, and alts go down.
Third, the support we got at $1 is almost unreal, like somebody actually props the price there. We've seen 20% or 30% swings happening on a very, very small volume around that level.
Fourth, the disconnection between HIVE and the other coin is not necessarily a good thing. It's good for the ego, of course, but what if STEEM whales decided to pump HIVE on a BTC descending slope, then dump it heavily on BTC up, and pump STEEM with these profits? In this case, STEEM will rise at the same time with BTC, breaking the natural BTC / alts cycle, and that will make it a "positive outlier", potentially attracting more buyers? This may seem a bit far fetched, but if you have a few millions HIVE to play with, it may be in the cards.
What I'm saying is that we may see a fortunate intersection of factors right now, that are not necessarily indicative of a sustainable long term growth. Yes, we got out of the woods of weekend pumps and dumps, and it seems there's more coherence to HIVE, as a tradable asset. But at the same time we may be in a short lived bubble. I personally still believe there's stuff to be solved around $0.80, and only after all volume there has been cleared, we may see a sustainable slope upwards.
Significantly more volume, a slower, but more consistent rise, without all those spikes, would signal for me we're on the right way up.
As usual, this is not financial advice, do your own research and never invest more than you can lose.
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