HIVE Pumping - Something Is Not Quite Right...

in LeoFinance16 days ago

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Like everyone else, I'm thoroughly enjoying HIVE's recent pump. For the last week, the price hovered around $1 - $1.15, with just a couple of small dips under $1.

However, if we zoom out a little, and try to detach ourselves emotionally, things are a bit strange. I may be over cautious here, but nevertheless I feel the need to share my thoughts.

First of all, the recent pumps happened on a relatively small volume. This may indicate the actual supply is very thin, and the depth of the order books in exchanges is shrinking. This means the price moves faster, as we can all see, but it also means it can move faster in either direction, not necessarily up.

Second, Bitcoin dumped at the same time, and this type of inverse correlation between BTC and alts is still happening: whenever BTC dips, value moves into alts, alts go up. And when BTC pumps, value flows out from alts, into BTC, and alts go down.

Third, the support we got at $1 is almost unreal, like somebody actually props the price there. We've seen 20% or 30% swings happening on a very, very small volume around that level.

Fourth, the disconnection between HIVE and the other coin is not necessarily a good thing. It's good for the ego, of course, but what if STEEM whales decided to pump HIVE on a BTC descending slope, then dump it heavily on BTC up, and pump STEEM with these profits? In this case, STEEM will rise at the same time with BTC, breaking the natural BTC / alts cycle, and that will make it a "positive outlier", potentially attracting more buyers? This may seem a bit far fetched, but if you have a few millions HIVE to play with, it may be in the cards.

What I'm saying is that we may see a fortunate intersection of factors right now, that are not necessarily indicative of a sustainable long term growth. Yes, we got out of the woods of weekend pumps and dumps, and it seems there's more coherence to HIVE, as a tradable asset. But at the same time we may be in a short lived bubble. I personally still believe there's stuff to be solved around $0.80, and only after all volume there has been cleared, we may see a sustainable slope upwards.

Significantly more volume, a slower, but more consistent rise, without all those spikes, would signal for me we're on the right way up.

As usual, this is not financial advice, do your own research and never invest more than you can lose.

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you're a party pooper :)

Definitely :)

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butofcors :)

@dragosroua. I have been days wating for your reaction / input to the Christmas 🤶 Bonus you reported earlier regarding unusual peaks of Hive at regular intervals.

The peaks start to appear again last week and Hive was been displayed on Binance as winner.

That kind of publicity may have call the attention of some scrappers who live on small gains : buying lows, selling highs.

I am myself just doing that with a few bucks. Every time I can gain 5 cents per coin I gamble. Of course I have been gambling at the lows near $1.

Buying and selling on Binance is pretty fast in spite of low volume.

Seeing data from @abaraxtras comment may partially support this theory.

Publicity of HIVE pumping ⛽ certainly helps the coin to be known by larger audiences

Regards

Yeah, it seems there's a player / group of players who are looking at HIVE very closely. I don't mind the price going up, on the contrary.

What I'm a bit apprehensive of is the disconnection between the chain perceived value and the price. That chain perceived value is certainly growing, and, in all honesty, I am seeing it clearly between $3 and $5 in the next 6 months, but right now it's a bit of a gamble.

Nothing wrong with gambling also, as long as you know you can lose everything in a second.

Not everything.. you'd still have your hive, and splinterlands:)

Depends how much / how leveraged you trade. Of course, even if you lose everything, you can build it back up by blogging. That's true. And nice :)

Chatting with @josediccus over Hive in the dollar region is awesome as what we as a community always long for, hopefully it stays in the range it currently is now for whatever reason impacting the pump.

I'd like to the $0.80 is a base at the moment.

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I just hope it stays well above ST--M. It's still well down the rankings and should be considered volatile. We should at least finish the year well up on how we were in January. There's plenty going on with Hive that ought to get investors interested, but it's hard to say what it should be worth. Need to keep on building dapps and users.

!PIZZA

Totally agree. That's what I'm saying too: price action is a bit weird, compared with the steady development. Let's see, I might be wrong. I'd be happy to be, as a matter of fact.

Awful avatar.

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Coming from the IceAge iconic squirrel, this might be a compliment. Still pondering how I should take it... :)

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I prefer seeing you with your old hat. 🎩

Hi, I absolutely agree with you. This is a pump and ends in dump. Look at where most of the volume is coming from.

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Nope...
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It's no longer upbite on the HIVE/KRW pair. We have Binance, gate.io...

I don't say it can't dump, it's just that it will probably hit hard at $1. Personally I'm expecting prices to rise, especially when considering the SPK airdrop and also a potential game being built on Hive.

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That can also be and I really wish that you are right! However, I just looked again at coinmarketcap and sorted by volume, this is what came up. It does not give me a good feeling. Ultimately, time will tell.

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1 dollar support is psychological, traders know that Hive is fundamentlaly strong right now and so a 1 dollar price floor is completely reasonable. They dont dare to short it past this point. All the 1 dollar sellers are done, since we have broken it time and time again, they may even turn back in to buyers. This is where the price becomes irrelevant and support, resistance everything. Once momentum catches hold traders with no interest in blogging will jump on board. All we need is for decentralised social media and tokens to become a hot topic. As someone else said once we breach a billion dollar market cap big money will start to consider buying in, they wont touch anything else as they will whale the market too much. Its time for a new paradigm for Hive and literally anything can happen. Im hoping for a price that is just un thinkable as that is what usually happens in crypto. There is also a rising wedge on the chart so sometime soon we could break out to something close to 2 dollars.

I am trying to wrap my mind around what the future of Hive will be when people flood in. As a new person here (a bunch of months) comments like this help me get a sense of what is going on in the background. This is very exciting to see. Glad I'm here and thanks for your input.

All we need is for decentralized social media and tokens to become a hot topic.

Word.

We're "just half a billion away" from entering the billionaires club.

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I saw that uptrend too, TA says $2 is doable in days / weeks, but what still bothers me is how thin the supply is, everything happens on a low volume. If BTC hits down $53k and rebounds savagely (as it did in the past), this could flip very fast. And $0.8 will still be in play. We'll see.

Otherwise 100% agree with your macro views. Once big pockets realize how much of a low hanging fruit HIVE is, we will see "miracles" in price...

Somehow I don't think so as this has actually been going on for the last 4 months already. Look at the spikes and also on low volume as the resistance is being broken down. I am expecting another major pump between the 1st and 3rd next week taking us past the ATH we saw a month ago as there is literally nothing left to fight this one. Someone is priming this for a major take off and don't think it will dump all the way back as we have been scoring 10% roughly after every major move. I do understand your concerns with manipulation to benefit the other chain but this may not be the case. Something is going on and being aware of all options is smart.

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Thanks for your input, appreciate it.

I reckon it holds till January and corrects around that $0.80mark.

Might be, everything is possible.

IMHO this will happen though much faster, it will shake the weak hands out by dropping to $0.80 in a week or two, then jump, probably between $3-$5 in January.

Will see. Obviously, not financial advice, etc.

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PIZZA!

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