First Up...
There's been quite a bit of chatter lately regarding the UK imprisoning citizens for making posts on social media that they deem to be unacceptable. While it's difficult to condone citizens inciting violence and hate against minorities and whathaveyou, it's even more difficult to condone a government with that much power. They've even gone so far as to claim they can extradite citizens from other countries and prosecute them based on these extremely flimsy online offenses under literal anti-terrorism laws. Eek. Police state strong.
In a perfect world where we can trust authority and those in power, something like this might be just fine. However, we've all seen how issues like this can become political, allowing whoever is currently in power to weaponize the police state against the citizens, making up arbitrary rules and enforcing them arbitrarily as well against the targets they don't like.
In the wake of this complete and utter lack of privacy and freedom comes a ban against the official @ukgov on Twitter, presumably signed-off on by Elon Musk himself. This is honestly kind of hilarious because wow who would have ever thought an official government account could get itself legitimately suspended or banned just a couple of years ago. Imagine threatening everyone in the entire world and then being put out when a social media site bans you for it. Wild.
However, this is obviously just more of the same bullshit. The UK is abusing their power, and in response Elon Musk is also abusing his power right back at them. This isn't a balancing of the scales so much as digital warfare... and there are very few actual winners when it comes to war. Most people end up as collateral damage or remain unaffected. This entire situation highlights the need for neutral platforms that can't be abused by any one entity in such ways. I'm not a fan of Elon Musk but I do tend to find this situation (and Clown World in general) highly entertaining.
Advertising Coalition Shuts Down After X, Owned by Elon Musk, Sues
The Global Alliance for Responsible Media, a nonprofit coalition of major advertisers led by the World Federation of Advertisers, told its members it would cease operations two days after Mr. Musk accused the group of orchestrating a boycott against X. The lawsuit claimed that the group, known as GARM, had violated antitrust laws by coordinating with brands to dissuade them from spending money on the social media platform.
In other Musk related news, he got this non-profit completely shut down just by filing a lawsuit against them. Many right-wingers are asking "what are they hiding", but reality probably isn't that interesting. The narrative that GARM simply doesn't have the resources to fight this kind of lawsuit sounds like a credible one. Not everything is a conspiracy, but who knows.
The World Federation of Advertisers, which is also named in the lawsuit, will remain operational.
California DMV Makes History, Digitizes 42 Million Car Titles on Avalanche Blockchain
When I first heard about this one I thought it must be fake, but this actually happened. A notoriously slow and unproductive government agency put their data on a blockchain; a 'gaming' EVM blockchain no less. Will this actually help them conduct business more effectively? I have no idea, but it is interesting and worth paying attention to going forward.
Official Santa Monica "Bitcoin Office"?
The Santa Monica Bitcoin Office is dedicated to educating our community on the transformative potential of Bitcoin*. In partnership with Proof of Workforce Foundation, we are committed to providing comprehensive education about Bitcoin and its role in the modern economy, helping Santa Monica residents and businesses alike understand this innovative technology.
In addition to providing education, the Bitcoin Office's mission is also focused on identifying and facilitating Bitcoin industry partnerships that actively support Santa Monica's economic recovery and cultivate new employment opportunities. By fostering strategic collaborations, we aim to create a resilient and forward-looking local economy that benefits all members of our community.
By further positioning Santa Monica as the Silicon Beach hub for Bitcoin innovation, we strive to unlock new opportunities, attract investment in our community, and ensure our city thrives in the digital age.
Wow that is quite the word-salad you got there.
But then again, it's absolutely mind-boggling to see something like this plastered on top of an official *.gov website. I would not believe something like this was real unless I was able to confirm it with my own eyes, which I just did.
Proof of Workforce Foundation?
Santa Monica Firefighter Union is the first union in the country to buy bitcoin and hold it in self-custody. Explore the proof of workforce adoption model, how they did it, why they did it, what the risks were, and what the response has been.
So I guess the only question that needs answering here is... is this just complete bullshit? Or is this Michael Saylor's Bitcoin Standard playing out just like we all thought it might? It's hard to tell but I guess we'll find out in 12 months after it's had some time to ferment.
15% APR on HBD
We have some local news on Hive in that HBD APR is officially at 15%, with 14/20 witnesses signaling 15% or above. It would stand to reason that we might be at this level for a while, and my feelings on the issue are mixed.
On the one hand I view this as a terrible time to be lowering APR. It screams weakness and caters to "can-devs-do-something" users who are concerned about number-go-up in the immediate short term. Potentially this is the absolute worst time to be lowering the APR, as lowering it is akin to capitulating and selling the bottom of the market (assuming 15 cents was the bottom).
Of course for this theory to match reality there'd need to be some evidence of HBD whales exiting here and pushing the price down further with sell pressure created by the peg. This all comes off the heels of the debt ratio reaching 10% for the first time since the previous cycle... which has nothing to do with HBD inflation and everything to do with the Hive spot price plummeting in recent months with the rest of the market.
The hysteria around increased short-term inflation is quite misplaced. It's a 4-year cycle. Why did we have high inflation in 2019 and 2020? Why did we have negative inflation in 2021? If we add up inflation over this entire cycle (2022-2025) it's highly likely we still come underneath the target. This is essentially guaranteed if we go negative again in 2025 as is significantly likely in the irrational bull market year of the cycle.
https://peakd.com/hive-133987/@dalz/hive-inflation-for-july-2024-or-running-hot-for-a-second-months-in-a-row
Need I remind everyone that economics always revolves upon lagging indicators. Lowering the APR today does not have an affect on anything until 6-12 months have passed. Where will the spot price be in 6-12 months? We have no idea but there is a reasonable expectation that it will be higher than now due to the 4-year cycle and mega-bull-run year of 2025.
https://peakd.com/hbd/@acidyo/hbd-apr
There's also posts like this from @acidyo and associated @ocd-witness talking about the change to 15% and pointing out that the witnesses has been signaling this amount the entire time. There is A LOT of drama in the comments which I personally think is undeserved so I didn't want to fuel the fire there at all.
At the end of the day 15% is still very high and the entire reason for jacking it up to 20% in the first place was to stay competitive during the previous bull market. Now that all that competition has imploded to zero, 15% is still basically the best option out there so it will probably end up being just fine on the macro side of things.
The dip of the dippty dip dip?
On July 6th I wrote this post speculating that we still had at least one more significant dip to go before hitting bottom. Many of the bottom indicators are now in. Was that the last one? There's a good chance, but also I'm still waiting until Q3 is over before pulling any triggers. As crazy at it sounds it's much safer to buy BTC at $65k in early Q4 than it is to buy at $61k now. $50k was also a huge buy target for me and I'm pretty annoyed I was on vacation again during all the action. Oh well; next time.
Conclusion
Lots going down in cryptoland. The Bitcoin Standard is coming into play. Mainstream adoption is coming in a big way and all anyone can whine about is wen number go up. It's only a matter of time at this point. The need for neutral platforms can not be denied forever. 4-year cycle is 4-years. See you in 2025.
Hopefully HBD stays at 15%. It definitely signals weak mindedness if you change something like that when things are near the bottom. Make those types of changes when a recovery is in the mix so that it’s not so tied to emotional foolishness the way it was this time around. I’m still only supporting 20% witnesses at the moment, not that it makes a huge difference but hopefully I shook up the lineup a little bit with the changes.
lol
People shaking one way. People shaking the other way. Instead of dancing, I just leave mine alone. I'm voting for, everything.
You don't discriminate, you shake, shake, shake, shake your booty either way I like that.
I just want to see money coming in the door, rather than leaving. I know some sticks around but that's rarely new money coming in the door, and it'll leave eventually. Everyone here offers a product with the potential to attract outside interest, somehow. None of this matters until that potential is realized.
Yeah for sure, I hear you on that dude. I think it's a good strategy that one of the other dudes is using, I forget his name, but if an account has 60 rep but <1,000 HP he doesn't give them any votes, over 70 rep and less than 5,000 HP same.
We have to foster an environment where yes people can get rewards, but at the same time you can't use this as your personal bank account and dump every cent you earn.
I'm going to try and start to adopt the mindset of taking a closer look at them before giving them any support!
That's an interesting strategy, but I'm not one for such rigid guidelines.
In an ideal situation (in my mind), I see an act show up, and bring support with them. Even gradually, over time, nonstop, as they grow in popularity organically like you'd see elsewhere on the internet.
So in the case of content creators for example, they'd have a high rep due to receiving plenty of organic support, their wallet wouldn't be jammed full of tokens because they're here to make money like anywhere else on the internet (but keeping some is good for business since you can reward your consumers), and the value behind that content creator could be found in the hands of their many supporters. Supporters that didn't come to post but instead came for the show. Their reps would be lower, and increase gradually from leaving comments and whatnot, but they're bringing the money in the door.
Why put your money into something like Patreon in order to support someone, when you can place that same money into your own wallet here, then watch it grow, plus achieve your goal of supporting whatever you want to support.
Get 1000 content creators doing that, the the consistent buy pressure allows them to earn, without creating so much sell pressure. Typically those consumer types outnumber the creators types by a huge margin.
So a small mass of people constantly gathering support on the outside from the large mass of people. And sure, one consumer shows up to enjoy so-and-so, but that attention then spills over onto the various other instances of content they find interesting, or products on chain like games. That crowd always wants to spend money but here they can watch it grow. This approach offers sustainability, while contributing to the success of many, indirectly, as well.
Pardon my long-ass comment. I really should just write this once and copy/paste it everywhere when I want to talk about it.
No pardon needed, that's a really solid idea man! I think a challenge we have is not having Hive listed on many exchanges that are accessible to people in America, Canada and potentially Europe, although I'm not too sure on the Europe side.
If we can increase the amount of avenues people can get ahold of the asset, then we could definitely make something like this a reality. I agree, that it would make total sense to add 25$ a month to Hive by 500 people that are subscribed to a big-name account that brings in the traffic and eyeballs.
Where I think we go sideways a bit.. is the army of post-police getting in there and decimating the rewards someone makes. Take pressfortruth or thelastamericanvagabond for example. Both of them are pretty sizable in terms of the alternative media landscape, with tens of thousands or more people who follow them very closely. What's their experience here? They get all of their posts zeroed out. It's a damn shame that shit happens!
I know we need to keep an eye on the content that is posted here, to make sure that we can control the leeches but things like this happening consistently to some groups really makes it difficult to convince somebody to invest the time and effort to grow an audience in those important areas.
Edit - I hate to always point out issues without trying to come up with a solution. I don't have any great ideas for this creator issue mentioned above yet, but I've thought about it a lot lately!
I will be most interested to see if people want to increase the APR when price is doing well, which is the exact opposite of what should happen.
.1475 isn’t the bottom. This is very clear we are going lower still.
Whelp it's not going lower than 10 cents so in the world of crypto that's already a pretty narrow range (32%).
I feel like saying anything is "very clear" at this stage is a bit of a trap.
Once we get to 2025 I'm not worried about number go down in the slightest.
You make it sound like it can’t go to a dime. Yes it can. We were less than 5 cents away last week. Foolish take my man. We are down 50% from one year ago today. Many crypto’s are up. We gotta face facts that we aren’t participating in a bull run others are. It ain’t 2021. I’d love to make a wager, drop me a reply.
I love Hive, I’m just honest about price talk. I’m still investing my time here. I love the community! But u talk about crypto market being one thing. That’s not case anymore. We are definitely going lower or definitely not are opinions not facts. And that’s not being anti Hive community, it’s just the facts. It’s not a bitcoin is ahead thing. Crypto’s are not one thing anymore. Look at 12 month charts of a couple dozen. It’s not one market doing same thing like years back.
I'm tired of saying it's a four year cycle.
It's a four year cycle.
Watch what happens.
Yeah. Down 96% plus and can’t go 98% 🙄
I literally said it won't go under 10 cents which means it can get to ten cents.
So that's the opposite of what I said.
Aren’t u same guy who told me that I was ridiculous and wrong for saying CUB wouldn’t end well in 2021? It might have been task , but I can’t remember. Pretty sure that was u too. come on, let’s have a friendly wager. Can we lock up 250 HBD each ? Let’s have a bet
I don't make bets that increase my volatility.
Those are bad bets in crypto.
But I am curious what the terms of this bet would be.
I am on record many times lecturing about how all inflation allocated to a token should have a goal of bringing more value than it dilutes. CUB and all those other defi protocols allocated exponential yields to random liquidity pools paired to random assets. I spoke often about how unsustainable that is. CUB could have turned out just fine if there had actually been anyone working on it. LEO dev team gets spread out way too thin working on too many projects at once.
Nothing about this cycle looks any different than four years ago. And also this entire topic was a tiny sliver of the original post. This entire conversation is an afterthought. Mainstream adoption is bulldozing it's way into this cycle. Which ones happen to get adopted is irrelevant in this context.
Pussy 🤣
Just kidding. !LOL
Cheers my dude. Wish you’d put money where ur mouth is. Can I at least say I told u so when ur wrong? In good respectful fun of course! Cheers! 🍻
Ur ridiculous. I like ya but come on man. U can’t be this Ego based to think u know something 100% Let’s bet
500 HBD. I bet we go under .10 cents. Within next 12 months. What’s best way to do it ?
Hive is down 97% from high eh?
So Hive is 18 cents.
So the high was $6 then?
Is it really that hard to just do math correctly while also not insulting the intelligence of others?
Maybe English isn't your first language so I'll give you the benefit of the doubt.
"is" puts the statement in the present tense, which also means "now".
"Went" is past tense, as in a completely different timeline.
Also known as irrelevant.
Would you say Bitcoin is down 90% because it's been down 90% in the past?
Unfortunately math is a universal language so it's hard to give you the benefit of the doubt on being able to calculate basic percentages. "This is close to this and this is close to this and this..." no. It's sixth grade math, so just do the math.
And also the sheer entitlement of believing you were personally entitled to sell the top of an illiquid market. Did it ever occur to anyone that perhaps the actual problem is not low prices today, but the fact that they got so high during the bull market with nothing to back them up? Hm! 🤔
See people who are buying and supporting a thing want the price to be low. So if you're complaining about low price then you're essentially a self-proclaimed leech trying to extract value for yourself... or maybe just someone who is irresponsibly long and wants to blame others for their own misfortune. It's not good optics either way.
12 months to go until and I stop having these conversations.
Because obviously.
I hope we see you before 2025! I'm one using hbd as a way to invest a little clink. And, as you said, 15% is better than I can get elsewhere. Tho, I'd prefer 20. Lol. Reminds me as a, know very little token hodler, I better learn how to get my tokens out fast if the need arrives. This cryptoland is still mind boggling for a gal like me!! ✌️
There are a lot of concerning things in the UK in the wake of the past week's events, but I'm not sure chatter on fox news would be my information source.
There is discussion whether the UK government should continue to use X (no); the anomalies between the sentences handed out for violent, racist thuggery and those handed to Just Stop Oil peaceful protesters; and, not reported at all as part of recent events, the disparity between court cases and convictions for domestic violence (two years to get to court is not unusual with a 1% conviction rate) and the recent violent riots where perpetrators appeared in court and were sentenced within a week of the offence.
The UK saw legislation during the pandemic restricting civil liberties and the right to protest and I was interested to see how the government would be dealing with these current riots and protests. We had mass peaceful protests against racism here with few arrests following the riots. It looks like we will be allowed to make the "right" kind of protests.
Regarding inciting hatred and violence in social media posts, this is part of wider legislation about inciting or encouraging hatred and violence in any context; there are also discussions about social media as a form of publishing and whether the owners of social media platforms should be held accountable to same legislation as other forms of publishing (The Crown V Musk should be interesting).
Other commentators suggest that it would be more useful to address fundamental social and economic factors creating inequality than tinkering with the already sprawling Online Safety Act, although my favourite article by far is the "Farage Riots".
Wait, nobody actually thinks that farage is actually behind the riots, right? Nobody can be that dumb.
Well I guess they definitely can but still
If citizens allowed themselves to be pierced with a needle with an incomprehensible vaccine, then why should we be surprised that you can be sent to prison for posts on social networks :) !VSC
I can't wait for this 2025 mega cycle, the narrative until now has been mostly just Bitcoin adoption. I guess it needs a big mega pump before alts run like mad.
Alright something we all need to get straight here is that "the rest of the market" is not plummeting as much as hive is. Hive has been a freakin disaster ALL bull run. It's only lost value while every other token has gained in the last year and a half.
Bitcoin is up 400% along with many crypto’s. Hive is down 50% same time. Crypto’s don’t move together anymore. This is silly. Be carful believing anyone just hyping things ignoring the facts
How many months have we been sitting at the low 400s rank?
Hive is doing almost exactly what it did last cycle.
I didn't think it would because there was no hostile takeover event.
I was wrong.
🤔
The current panic directly stems from the last dip, which is a dip that we didn't lose any market cap rankings. Hive is an extreme laggard token. This makes it good to accumulate at the end of a waterfall bull market... which is potentially now or even as late as the end of this year (looking at last cycle).
That’s not true man. Hive is in a bear market the same period Bitcoin went up 400%. You can’t be serious with this ? I love Hive, but dude this ain’t 2021. Crypto’s don’t love together. Look at past 12 month charts. Ur hyping people up on nonsense
Clicked on @ukgov link and found it’s not claimed on Hive …. Yet
you don't joke with the potentials of power. It's and its absoluteness corrupts absolutely. Something one needs to understand that climbing to power aims at protecting the people and not attacking.
I strongly agree. I am very disappointed in this move.
Thanks!
It needed to be done.
Why?
As Hive dips lower, I don’t see how it makes any sense for HBD APR to remain so high. Just my opinion, if HBD rate stats around 20% while Hive keeps going lower it’s not gonna end well. Market rates need to adjust. Otherwise the pressure on Hive just gets ridiculous and other problems will appear.
Well, the haircut is for that very purpose, and the HBD rate was only ~1/3 of where it triggered the haircut. Cutting the rate now is going to cause some folks to dump HBD for better returns elsewhere, and some folks won't park their stake in HBD for the return and instead financialize curation, which I have never yet found a beneficial effect on curation, since it substitutes pecuniary interest in a post for anything to do with the content of the post. Farming curation rewards is not promoting good content, because reward farmers have several metrics that they attend to, such as when they vote, and how much they vote, and they base what they vote for on maximizing curation rewards, which generally favors posts that are already highly rewarded by ppl pandering to whales.
It is because curation rewards so derange curation that I am so in favor of good interest on HBD, because that outcompetes curation rewards for ROI and that improves the quality of content on Hive.
lol god damn it
I am not on X, so I got tricked as well.
?????
https://xcancel.com/GOVUK
I appreciate the breakdown and your take on some of the more interesting global news in addition to on chain events.
I don't think the 15% has anything to do with inflation. This all seems to be stemming from the issues with the DHF. I still think 15% is better than anything you can get in the traditional world, so whatever.
cities of the DHF?
I'm not sure what I was going for there. I think I'd had a couple drinks by that time.
Hehe, cool 😍
One of the steps taken by the US government to keep the dollar from weakening is to restrict crypto. The government made censorship laws to hit their target
Woah! I've been away from Hive for too long and this 15% reduction of HBD's APR is the first thing that caught my attention. Not good.
It is good. It’s not sustainable at 20%
That is a lot of news, in a short time, thanks.
I agree dropping interest rates in a bear market, is an interesting strategy, Oczum's Razor suggests it is not the best, but the Witnesses have spoken.
UK is a shit show for sure...
Elon has tried to do good, but he is very human still, and humans are going be susceptible to temptation..
I am converting my HBD to Hive and other tokens, as well. Hive will probably be late to the bull run party, as per it's previous performances...
I have been listening and reading a lot from Jack Maller lately, and today MicroStrategies CEO... I wrote a post on bitcoin and entropy you may find worth your while.
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STOPBitcoin will keep rising i believe