Cut the Fat!
Alright so I was talking to someone on Discord and they asked me if I had seen the push to tighten up and stop rewarding accounts that are dumping on the network. I had to admit that I did not notice (although I should have). To add to this, I started a powerdown 3 days ago and my last 3 days of posts have had very low payouts. I'm not sure if these two events are correlated, but I stopped the powerdown and powered up 1000 Hive just in case. I can play ball and toe the line if this is what we are doing in the moment. No problem.
https://peakd.com/hive-13323/@azircon/governing-dynamics-gentleman-top-2500-hive-accounts
https://peakd.com/hive-167922/@slobberchops/are-you-on-hive-to-invest-or-to-milk-the-cash-cow
https://peakd.com/hive-126152/@galenkp/consequences
Is this a good idea?
There are certainly arguments to be made on both sides. Situations like this are often born of crisis so the ideas that get promoted are neither "good" or "bad" but rather more like trying to choose between the rock and the hard-place. Certainly I think we can all agree that action like this is definitely born of a fear and scarcity mindset, which is not ideal. At the same time being down 95% from 2021 is also not ideal, so beggars don't get to be choosers, do they? Sometimes the scarcity mindset is appropriate, or if not appropriate at least understandable.
Are users being overpaid?
Unfortunately a move like this prompts some serious introspection. I think we can all agree that nobody on the platform should engage in delusional thinking. Doing so can only be neutral at best and bad at worst. Consequently, anyone that agrees with the idea that we should not reward accounts that sell must also believe that our users are overpaid and we could really use some better jobs around here that build more value.
Paycheck to Paycheck
Amazon doesn't pay their employees less when they sell Amazon stock. Same with any other company. If Hive wants to pay users less because they are selling the stock... it means the value those users were generating was lower than the amount they were being paid. Living paycheck to paycheck is the standard in the legacy world, and there seems to be a big disconnect in WEB3 because everyone's finances are linked to the spot price of the underlying currency. One person selling can be interpreted as a theft from the entire group.
What else must one admit to?
Well anyone who thinks that we need to make a push to make number go up isn't a buyer of Hive at the lows. Buyers want number to go down so they can buy more. That's just simple buy low sell high ideology 101. So there is certainly a little bit of hypocrisy going around if the most diehard members of the community demand number go up because they are such diehards. Are you done accumulating, anon? Have you had enough? On the other side of that coin is the, "Yeah I think a 95% dip is enough, send it higher already."
Irresponsibly Long
Pretty much everyone on Hive fumbled the bag in 2021. I know if I hadn't dropped the ball so hard I'd have millions of Hive today. Millions... and I'd still be buying these lows and hoping it went even lower. It's provably difficult to be a responsible adult in crypto. And this is true even when other users depend on us to be the responsible adult.
Take, for example, the four year cycle.
Everyone knows it's a four year cycle. Everyone saw how bad @ned fucked us because he fumbled the bag in 2017/2018 and tried to scale up during a bear market year. Then when everything collapses all the money runs out. Well, we got another chance to redeem ourselves in 2021, and it happened again regardless of not having a CEO.
Once again we saw popular apps thinking the bull market was going to last forever and trying to scale up in 2022 when the price plummeted when they should have been hunkering down and buying runway for the EXPECTED long winter. Even when there is an extremely defined pattern everyone gets greedy and rolls with the "this time is different" FOMO. Can we stop? Serious question. It's very much an actions speak louder than words scenario. It should be easy, but it very much is not.
All of Hive's value exists on a plane of supply and demand. It doesn't really matter what the market cap is. That's a very flawed metric. A high market cap with low liquidity can crash into dust immediately. A market with high liquidity can gobble up billions of dollars without the cap changing at all (AKA buy wall).
With this in mind I've always thought it to be very strange that when the hostile takeover happened the common consensus was that, "THE NINJAMINE EXISTS FOR HIVE DEVELOPMENT". Hm, okay well that's an interesting theory but the ninjamined tokens have no value unless they're dumped on the market, and tokens dumped on the market, as we have already established, is basically just stealing value from every other holder on the platform.
So we're determined to cut-the-fat but there's a lack of consensus to defund proposals, which is interesting but not unexpected (development is pretty damn important after all). I haven't done the math or anything but there's a lot of downward pressure coming from the @hive.fund. Without market liquidity the market cap multiplier can get jacked up to x100 and higher: meaning that $1 dumped on an exchange can reduce the market cap of the network by $100 or more. Luckily this also works in the opposite direction during the bull market. Soon™?
I suppose it's time to mention here that I think it's pretty inappropriate that proposals do not have a downvote mechanic. An account either has to downvote every proposal all at the same time by upvoting the return, or not at all. That lack of utility continues to be a problem for this flavor of democracy. All in good time I suppose.
So what's the solution?
Well like with many economic problems the solution is to jump in a time machine back to 2021 and stop everyone from being a degenerate. Economies of scale like this lag hard. Problems like this can't get fixed right away; it takes time for everything to play out. The solution is to buy low and sell high. So why aren't we buying low? Because we got greedy and didn't sell high. This is the standard not the exception. I'd like to think we learned our lesson and will do better the next time opportunity knocks. Until then we gotta suck it up and be scrappy, just like 2019 & 2020. Time is a flat circle.
Thinking in abundance.
Even though times are tight right now I'd still like to believe in the abundance solutions. This means my personal focus has nothing to do with policing what other accounts are doing with their money. It also means I'm not looking to change any of the rules of Hive or any of the inflation rates. I believe we are actually doing just fine across the board.
The real value continues to exist out there in the jungle. There's money flying around everywhere it just needs to be captured in a clever way. I'd say one of our biggest shortcomings for quite some time now is our interoperability. This includes both our liquidity pools in addition to potential connections we can make to BTC and ETH/EVM. Our biggest source of liquidity was Binance and now Binance is fully captured by American regulators. Not good!
Solutions take time and a lot of this stuff is already being worked on. We might call it a waiting game at this point... so yeah if we want to buckle down and start micro-managing accounts during the downtime I can certainly understand why. I don't necessarily have to agree with it in order to comply with this perceived consensus... Even though I could personally dump quite a bit of Hive right now and still mathematically be a net positive to the network over the last four years. It seems like we calculate these things on much shorter timeframes, which is fine albeit noteworthy.
Conclusion
Well it's been four years and this time was not different! I really thought it would be different considering four years ago we were dealing with way more adversity than we are now. Perhaps I need to reevaluate those theories.
I have a lot of gratitude and consider myself to have great privilege to be able to support Hive during a time like this... full-time crypto since September 2021. I'm a year away from making it a full cycle, and I have a feeling I'm not going to be disappointed.
I am however a little concerned for those who are not as lucky as I am. The cruise ship that is fiat is sinking slowly and these crypto lifeboats are choppy as hell. I just hope that one day soon we're able to collectively come to a resolution that doesn't involve punishing people for being poor (or just bad with money). Dream big!
I don't know how this affects big people, just small people in Hive who no longer get a big vote. Are they really stopping voting for Powerdown? That's why I keep my HIVE on platforms like Binance in Stacking, that is, I see no point in increasing +0.01 cent in my vote without a proper use for it.
Do you have another use? Mark me down on that, there's no reason for me to use HIVE for transactions in life with other systems like PayPal.
This is honestly an issue across the board.
Why use a DEX when the centralized exchange is a requirement for fiat onramp and the fees on that exchange are cheaper? But also we see the environment slowly changing in that crypto starts making more and more sense to use, especially with regulators moving in and swinging their dicks around.
Once again it all comes down to an infrastructure and utility issue.
Many are tired of hearing this but: we're still very early.
I totally agree with you, but I believe that like most altcoins, its focus of use is due to its ecosystem and nothing else.
Why would anyone try to use altcoins to make payments like MEMES cryptocurrencies, protocols derived from Ethereum. A step forward from stable coins, or even Bitcoin. Although the transaction fee is still a problem.
We should keep HIVE to be interesting to use in HIVE, but what do we have here at this time? Even the return on stacking seems small compared to the risks of holding on for so long. (Currently at 3% APR).
Yield is way higher than 3%
This number doesn't count curation.
Actual yield is much closer to 10%.
That doesn't count the value of governance votes either or building personal reputation on the chain.
All attached to your Hive Power. I understand what this brings for everyone involved.
But now, if you want to take away that small gain through curation, stacking percentage and so on. Will they be barred from receiving votes from the big boys?
Consumers are not impacted by what a small group of individuals on Hive think. It's a myth one needs to be a "content creator" here in order to earn. Easiest way to earn is by browsing the merchandise, upvoting, leaving comments here and there and maybe those will be voted up.
And if you have solid content you know is worth money, you could simply reach outside and attract paying supporters who can stake tokens and basically get paid to support your work.
No need to be concerned. If one feels like they're being ignored, just ignore them in return and do your own thing.
Hive already has a connection to the Lightning Network and the ability to pay LN invoices with HBD.
This may or may not become a very big deal going forward as HBD has no trading fees and the LN has no stable-coin.
@v4vapp
I don't think it's the powering down that started this as much as it is powering down and not powering up at all. There's a pretty big difference in my opinion. I get that some of people are relying on Hive to pay their bills, but why wouldn't you want to grow your account? The more you grow you more you can earn. You can still power up 25% and take the other 75% to pay for whatever you need to pay for. I think it's the accounts that are sitting at basically nil powered up and keep pulling everything out then complain that their account isn't growing that is the issue. Sure, they have every right to take the funds out, but those other accounts also have the right to not vote for them. As you mentioned about creating runway in the bear, this is the time you should be wanting to grow your Hive power I would think.
That's a great theory but the way I assume it's going to work in practice is that large curators are going to start running algorithms that check to see if you have an active powerdown and automatically skip over you. Devil is in the details on these things for sure.
That could be and that is unfortunate. This is potentially one of those issues that gets debated forever, but never fully resolved. Like what is quality content, what is abuse, what is proper hive etiquette. I think the fact that some hard questions are being asked about the DHF by movers and shakers is a good thing. I think there needs to be more accountability there and I like the idea of individual downvote options, but I think we also already know that it only takes one or two of the top accounts to irreversibly sway things one way or the other.
There are more objective ways to measure value but we haven't built the infrastructure yet. I always come back to the idea of a blockchain game where all the content is created by the community and the ownership/work for whatever task is represented by NFTs. I'm honestly shocked this doesn't exist somewhere yet... and I'm not talking about Hive either EVM needs to step up on their template creation and business models.
Please write a post elaborating on this from your perspective. I would consider that must-read-content. I think about it all the time, but as good as I am at creating web application code, financial and governance code is tricky stuff and not my area of subject matter expertise. But when someone presents an idea that requires such code, I often times am able to visualize a programmatic solution to solve for it. Sometimes.
Anyway, I guar-an-tee a post about that would be a banger, regardless.
I've posted on this a couple times.
It comes down to better infrastructure so that non-coders can create value within a new system. Like say someone creates a puzzle game. A way to create objective value would be to allow users to create puzzle for that game and have the community upvote the best ones or even a pay-to-play situation. This way puzzle-creators are getting paid for building objective value and making the game better.
The skins model for free-to-play system is even better. Creating a graphical skin only changes appearance and not gameplay, and thus creates no unfair pay-to-win mechanics. There's a lot to be said here.
There's also another option of creating bounties for accomplishing certain tasks. The community can add to the bounty to make it a higher priority. Like if the community wants to see some kind of feature added they can donate money to that bounty and the person that does the work and cash in on it.
Ah I see where you're going. Like the wordpress ecosystem. There are people who actually make "wordpress" the app itself (the metaphor for chain here), then there are people who make plugins (the metaphor for dapps here), or the people who make templates (your metaphor for skins here) and so on.
Or those who make or suggest things for things like games, where people make artwork, music, marketing materials, explainer posts, additional user generated content, like say maps or puzzles for a game that allows them to "mod" it or add to a DLC catalog for it.
To some degree nothing is stopping any of this from happening already, but there are no official guardrails on most of it. If any are even warranted?
Interesting stuff to consider.
Greetings @edicted ,
So appreciated reading your thoughts regarding the current buzz...thank you for the clarity, logic and smiles. ^__^
Kind Regards,
Bleujay
These crypto cycles are brutal and stuff like ATOM didn't do much this cycle yet either. Other stuff like ICP started moving and then round tripped practically and is giving it all back.
In regards to Hive I have always thought it was strange that in the last 8 years the premise of free speech has been super important but the topics on here usually are safe bet stuff. Nature pics, cat pictures. Which all that is fine but people are very hesitant to show support on anything controversial. Then it is almost frowned upon to get any payouts or utilizing the system.
Then there has been a worry to approve proposals, advertising the ecosystem, and creating an abundance mindset.
I'm going to let you guys in on my most elite marketing approach. Remember when Billy Mays died and then soon after they rolled out Phil Swift to do infomercials and he was a heavyset guy with Khakis on?
I say we roll out "Jimmy Sandfield" who will be nerd from Florida with a buzz cut who does Livestreams sometimes with a shirt on sometimes without. He will push traffic, educate, and on board a new army of crypto gamers, bloggers, and investors.
This will get the entire crypto community talking about HIVE. The ICP community will especially be like WTF????
If anyone acts like our character is similar to another character we will act like we don't know what they are talking about.
Jimmy will be racially ambiguous and question his sexuality periodically so he will be a DEI hire and mirror 95% of the hiring in the United States the last 4 years. 🇺🇸🦅
The best time to roll out Jimmy is NOW!!!!
This is really a big one, hoping it does not affect the community health and mentality of users. Going after new ones will be a tough task.
The counterparty to every seller is a buyer... I mean, this is how price discovery happens. If you want to stop all selling you also have to stop all buying.
How much does hive.fund dump in the market every week?
I was wondering why the Steem price had caught up with Hive despite their four-week powerdown. I think it's because it just runs on autopilot. Like Doge, they haven't bothered with new development - the upside is that there are no developers dumping coins.
Well with Steem there is a choice being made where Justin Sun isn't dumping the premine and crashing it to zero. He may even be propping up the spot price with a little bit of money just so the project doesn't look completely dead. It's unclear.
No Idea! It is a relative question. Also it is an opinion. You will have one opinion and I will have one. We are both entitled to ours.
We are not hive employees. No one pays us. We get paid if our cumulative users like us more than our cumulative haters, stake weighted! :) Since the later is literally non-existent, we have demonized and killed them, it is just basically the former
Personally I don't care one way or the other. I had some time at hand, as I am home recovering from a major surgery. I wanted to see for myself what is going on at hive. I wrote the finding for myself as well.
Hope you are doing well.
Ah well you know what they say:
Perhaps this is more of a universal truth than anything I've written here.
Godspeed.
Indeed!
Whatever we do, we need to continue creating products designed for consumers, and make damn sure we don't attract paying consumers. That's been a solid approach for 8 years so, carry on. Pretend they don't exist and push to attract crypto investors instead. Same path, business as usual. Do not pivot. It is important we are doing the same things and in the same place in 8 years time. We got this.
Let's create s decentralized space where everybody can say or do whatever they like on a blockchain.
Oh no. People are doing a thing that we don't agree with. Lets have a witch hunt everybody. Yay.
It's now been 0 days since our last witch hunt.
We were actually going well for a while. We even went a few months without ganging up on a group of users and driving them away for no particular reason but again we will end up with less users and less value in our eco-system once more. Silly really.
Anytime that token price becomes the issue it's down to two major principles. User numbers and revenue generated.
If hive can bring in a few million active users we will need RC for each of them to interact. Then either the users or the apps have to powerup to run this. So successful apps would work if we could build the tools for them to link into hive quickly and easily.
Or if our existing apps can start to generate revenue and run like a real business as every other app in the world is forced to do. Run ads, have micro payments, take sponsorships, premium accounts. Use the money to buy hive from the markets and create buy pressure against the users selling.
But that would be too logical.
Splinterlands showed us it could be done before they fumbled the bag. They really pumped the price for everybody last time around. Now we just need a dozen other apps to bring in revenue and do it on a sustainable business model that can last over multiple cycles.
It could be done with all of the brains and brilliance that we have on chain but usually devs and business minds seem to clash instead of collab.
I have always wanted the original tribes idea to get real focus that we could turn into a portal to hive. Real ready to go communities that anybody can launch and run with zero coding. Light accounts, instant onboarding and a sustainable token economy backed by ad revenue to give each token value into the future. Each community would become an onboarding point and all combined revenue would be buying hive form the markets to back their token. It's just a pity they never followed up on the original tribes after the launch.
Hm yes but was it Splinterlands or their unsustainable broken Play-To-Earn mechanics that pumped the price of a Hive token to the exact level it costs to mint an account? It should be heavily noted that Splinterlands charged new accounts exactly $10 to prevent rampant botting. How high did Hive get? Around $3.33. How much does it cost to mint a new Hive account? 3 Hive. The math is devilishly suspect on this one and I've never verbalized it until now. That pump could have easily been caused by scammers during their scam. All speculation of course.
It was $10 to get an account but you also get credits to spend in the game with your account. And it was $10 since the alpha days long before the play to earn hype of the last bull run.
They couldn't mint enough accounts from their own stack and spent a couple of million to buy hive from the market and mint new accounts at the peak of the game. We were already in a bull market but that combined with people buying hive to spend in game was the biggest reason that we saw $3.
They crashed the game by flooding the markets with chaos cards thinking that the bull run was going to keep going but instead it killed the scarcity factor of the game, killed the rental market as everybody had access to buy cheap cards and the bots were printing the reward cards in huge numbers.
On top of that they kept flooding the market with new items like validators and promos into a bear market soaking up whatever funds could have been used for the card markets.
The bots didn't kill the games momentum but the printing of assets did.
They weren't the sole reason for the last pump but i do think that they were the biggest reason for it.
lol nice explanation I'm not even gonna try to stumble down that hole.
Spoken like someone who was actually there and lived it.
soooooo yeah back to the original topic it will be very nice if we can streamline development and get some of that consensus and collaboration. EVM compatibility may prove very important... I don't know there are so many ongoing projects that need to deliver it's just very frustrating to wait for all the soon™ products.
I just wish that i could code. It would be nice to try and build instead of just complaining for a change.
At least 3speak seem to be on the verge of launching a new type of community and vsc are getting places on the EVM compatibility.
We've spend years hearing soon. Who knows, we might actually live long enough to see something big happen.
It's even more frustrating to conclude that once you start learning to code you realize that getting a project completed on your own is difficult if not impossible. This is why teams and foundations exist. And then that requires organization, leadership, funding, and politics.
I've always talked about the need to decentralize this process and create training programs to help anyone on the network learn how to do this stuff. Unfortunately THAT is even harder than just making a centralized company.
I looked at it once.
Then i ran away screaming.
It was a wise choice i think. :D
I will just have to wait until hive pumps my bags enough that i can leave my job and hire people to build for me. Then we can build even more and pump the bags again. We just need the first wave of success so that we can bring even more.
Absolutely the very best, most well stated post on this topic of all of them!
HEAR, HEAR! to every word of this post's and posters opinions!
Punishing people for using freedom, or for being poor, or for basically exercising their human and financial rights here for ANY personal reason to use their own money, well, that it EXACTLY why this place was made in the first place and it's not only disheartening, but rather disturbing to see that point lost on so many posting or commenting in favor of looking at an individual's wallet activity to decide merit for that person's individual content, or other contributions like operating various kinds of nodes, or building software contributions or helping other users onboard and get the lay of the land or building communities or... it ain't always about the money for everyone and sometimes its the only money they can be about, and need it to live, make, or frigging spend if they want to. What words in the one word sentence "Freedom!" do people not understand?
It's almost like they want to complain about where they are, without actually exhibiting a clue of what this place even is!
I wrote yesterday a post about it.
I haven't done a powerdown yet, don't plan to in the near future and always take part in the powerup. But I'm critical of this dynamic, because I fear that unfortunately many people don't realize that there are many ways to trick on Hive. It's not enough just to see if someone does a powerdown or not.
Also every User gives a value to Hive. Users who make powerdowns too!
https://ecency.com/hive-167922/@mein-senf-dazu/hive-investment-and-cash-cow
Yes, a negative value is also a value :)
What would be a negative Value and what is a positive vlaue?
Dear friend...
Aber so schwarz und weiß ist es eben nicht, wie Du es darstellst.
Es gibt viele Zwischentöne.
Gut erkannt, aber genau zum gegenteiligen Schwarz und Weiß wird es ja gerade gemacht.
Man kann ja nicht damit Werben, das man hier Krypto verdienen kann und dann verteufeln, wenn jemand das dann auch Auszahlt. Damit wird das Argument ja absurd, was Hive eben besonders macht.
Der Gedanke "Guten Content Voten" ist doch der zählen sollte und das ohne dem Hintergrund, wieviel jemand Investiert oder entnimmt. Denn das würde zu einem sehr faden Beigeschmack führen.
Und wie in meinem Beitrag geschrieben bringt es auch nichts NUR zu gucken ob ein Account ein Powerdown macht, da müsste man schon paar mehr Sachen schauen, denn das kann man sonst umgehen!
Das mit dem aufs PD schauen hatte nicht ich geschrieben (nur bei den Witness). Ich hatte ein Bsp. erwähnt, wo einer fast das Fünffache von dem entnommen hat, was er an HP hält.
Und mit dem "Guten Contant" als einziges Kriterium, da wäre ich eher vorsichtig, denn was ist schon gut?
War nicht auf dich bezogen mit dem PD, sondern auf die, die das nun als Kriterium nutzen. Denn das alleine reicht nicht aus, da muss man ggf. schon deutlich besser hinschauen. So Simpel ist nun mal Hive nicht in der Struktur. Man kann was entnehmen ohne ein Powerdown auf dem Account zu haben!
Und dann müsste man aber doch auch jeden der HBD in den Savings hat genau so behandeln, denn dadurch wird ja ein Wert einfach aus dem Nichts erzeugt und das ohne Gegenleistung
Dein Beispiel ist leider ohne Namen um mal zu sehen, was da denn so los ist.
Guter Content ist Subjektiv, aber an sich geht es darum, das Voten ist ein Liken "Ich mag das" und nicht "Ich mag das du nicht auszahlst bzw. das du gar investierst und dafür bekommst mein Vote". Kann man so handhaben, aber das war eben nicht Sinn von Hive, meiner Meinung nach.
Und am Ende sind doch alle hier um was zu verdienen und nicht um Geld zu verschenken oder? Sonst wären wir auf FB,X und sonst wo.
Witnesses haben auch Kosten, möchte da kein Urteil drüber bilden, wie hoch die bei den einzelnen nun sind und was die herausnehmen, aber das muss auch bedacht werden.
Wow that actually means a bit of centralization in Decentralization.. AMD WHO'S they anyways... Probably those with high voting power enough to curate big. If there were more big curators this would not have happened unless they all agreed to reduce votes
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THOSE users are overpaid. That's not all users.
Apples and Oranges. Money isn't stonks, and Hive tokens are money. Also, there's the issue of scale. If the entire capitalization of Hive was sold in the form of Amazon stock, Amazon would hardly notice, so someone flinging boxes on conveyor belts is beneath their notice. A lot of companies do reward key employees with stocks and options, however, and they do restrict such things in a variety of ways, most often locking them down for a period of time. If the principals of Amazon were selling as much Amazon stock as whales on Hive are selling Hive tokens, that would be headline news, probably sparking criminal investigations by the SEC. There are lots of rules regarding sales of stonks by noteworthy persons. Nancy Pelosi comes to mind. So does Warren Buffet, selling high today, unlike folks selling Hive presently. If Buffet was selling a buttload of Berkshire Hathaway assets during a bear market, he wouldn't be Warren Buffet anymore, and a lot of folks that invest in Berkshire Hathaway wouldn't anymore - which is basically what @slobberchops is doing by reconsidering his voting strategy.
That's because DV's are taxes, and the folks that govern Hive and therefore the DHF don't want it taxed. That's why there's no DV on witness voting either.
Maybe you mean history?
That's unlikely in a plutocracy. Code is infinitely mutable, however, and Hive doesn't have to be a plutocracy.
Thanks!