Who Will Defend 25 Cents?

in LeoFinance14 days ago (edited)

hive-logo-blockchain.jpeg

Breaking my balls, Hive!

So the new moon came and wiped away all the gains... again.
Every time it happens I chuckle.
I almost shorted it but I haven't been trading recently.

As far as the alt-market is concerned we find ourselves in a bit of a danger zone. Hive has fallen below rank #400 on the market cap which is pretty demoralizing to be honest. The more things change the more they stay the same. Although it is nice that there are some rock-bottom signals here that point to an eventual turnaround. Just year 3 in the cycle doing year-3 things like always.

Defending The Quarter!

On December 22, 2022 I wrote this post predicting that 25 cents could be a pretty good place to hold the line. Shocking that I had predicted the exact bottom, of course nobody knew that at the time. Hindsight is always 20/20.

The price action was very similar back then as it is today... which is almost even more demoralizing when we consider that Bitcoin went from $16k to all-time-highs during that period and we are still stuck back at rock bottom. These things happen. Lower caps are wholly unpredictable in both directions. Whether this is an opportunity or a period of tribulation is entirely dependent on personal portfolio allocations and perspective.

Obviously anyone buying during a time like this is loving the low price. At the same time there aren't a lot of buyers. There are a lot of small sellers and a few big buyers, but most people are just in HODL mode which is pretty standard in crypto. The inflation mechanism of the chain seems to create these ebbs and flows in which newly printed money puts constant downward pressure on the price. The demand to buy, however, is ceaselessly mired in choppy waters.

Naturally this leads to some thinking we should change the way inflation works, which would almost certainly make the problem even worse. Being wishy washy with economic policy based on where we are in the cycle is just the absolute best way to instill no-confidence. This is also just a super ironic way of thinking because if anyone actually wanted to change the way Hive works then they should be buying stake... because stake-weighted votes control everything. And if you're buying stake you should be happy that the price is so low and tokens are basically just being given away compared to where we'll be in 2025. Of course nothing is guaranteed but "this time is different" logic doesn't seem to age well in crypto... which is exactly how we got here in the first place I might add.

What does Hive really need?

Two things that I can think of off the top of my head. The first is liquidity. It was never super easy to buy Hive without a (fiat ramp) Coinbase listing, and now with Bittrex being vaporized and Binance being cut off to USA and Mandala closing and Blocktrades avoiding regulatory overreach... yikes! So much yikes. We've been cut off pretty hard and it stings. The only way forward at this point are connections to decentralized exchanges that aren't going to buckle. These solutions are already in the works and the goal is to create strong/permanent liquidity with BTC.

The other thing Hive needs is higher demand to use blockspace. How this is actually accomplished is another matter entirely; the definition of easier-said-than-done. At the end of the day it is a bit of an infrastructure issue. Hive isn't the easiest chain to build on and the learning curve can be a bit steep, even if the benefits are worth the effort. Again this is something being worked on from a couple of different angles and tends to be a waiting game.

400 sats for 1 Hive!

What a deal! Of course when we measure against Bitcoin it assumes we have Bitcoin to trade into it. I think this is one of the biggest problems with Hive honestly. Our community doesn't have enough respect for BTC and credit is not given where credit is due. If I had actually positioned myself correctly during 2021 like I knew I should have I would have quite a bit of BTC right now and I'd be able to rotate into the assets I'd like to rotate into. Instead like many others I feel a bit stuck in HODL mode trying to to wait out this uncomfortable epoch. These things happen.


Of course being reliant on some other token is also not a great place to be, even if that token is the original gangster that sets the tone for the entire ecosystem.

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$72k $72k $72k $72k $72k

Taking a look at the OG paints a relatively bullish picture. We avoided the primary death cross and now the moving averages are acting as support as we continue to get swatted down by $72k resistance. We're far beyond the dreaded "double top" at this point. Volatility is calming which means a big move is coming soon. I'm still quite certain September will be disappointing as always but we still have the entire summer left to see what happens.

Obviously another retrace to $58k would be a screaming buy and potentially even a good place to put in an aggressive long. A move like this would absolutely decimate alts so it might even be smarter to just buy alts during a move like that to capitalize on the guaranteed fear and absurd dominance of BTC. Anything within the $58k to $72k band is totally expected and barely noteworthy. Wake me up when we can sustain above $72k.

All this being said if Hive gets back to that 250-300 sats per Hive range I'll definitely throw in a revenge trade. Thinking something like 0.1 BTC. 10M sats will be good for 33k-40k Hive. Will definitely be a bittersweet moment knowing it could have been x10 that had I have played my cards the way I knew I should have played them. Oh well. Maybe next time. Every cycle does seem to play out the same after all.

Conclusion

So we beat on, boats against the current, borne back ceaselessly into the past.

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learn to love this chart

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Fixed it for you
kek

That's purely hopium at this point.😅 Also, I hope I am wrong

A three year trendline is hopium?
That's kind of wild statement to make.
How are we defining hopium?
Less than 10% chance?
I'd give it at least a coinflip.

When we consider where we are in the cycle (year 3) a dip like the one you're showing is the actual hopium imo. That's free-money long position right there. A move like the one you've drawn makes a lot more sense in 2022 or 2023 imo, as it very much looks like the BTC collapse of 2018.

What I find most odd about this analysis is that you haven't even drawn the line... but you have drawn a line with the exact same slope at the lower level. Which means you likely did draw it and then you purposefully took it out after using the slope for the baseline. Why?

Don't take this too seriously. I was trying to be a bit funny :o

I covered the support you have drawn in fall of last year: https://peakd.com/hive-167922/@tobetada/crypto-analysis-or-hive-support-epiphany

It was quite a bit of an epiphany. It should hold... but I think I might have entered the depression phase of the cycle. 2 years+ and we are still clinging onto 30 cents; I don't want to look at the chart anymore or get my hopes up for a fake pump and dump with $100M volume in an obviously rigged whale game.

We have so much going for this chain, it is miles ahead of just about any of our competitors and yet we don't get any value appreciation in terms of price. What hope do we have when Steem still has almost the same MC?

Oh well, I guess I just like to rant a bit.

The trend line in the chart is not the one you drew shifted lower, we can draw it by taking the lowest weekly closes (is that a word?) from the early days (see ellipse):

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Oh and by the way, the 2 year+ trend line is failing. Price is now trading under it - 5 more days to close above it.

The reason why the path I drew makes "sense" is that we'd get a really nice close with the cycle in the end of 2025 with roughly the same gains as in 2021 and could even make a new ATH... doesn't sound to bad honestly

Hive 15 cents, I feel it in my bones (would still be up around 60% from the last lows, but we would be completely out of sync of the 1 year bear cycle, or is that just how Hive moves? 3 years down, 1 year up)

There's nothing very serious about TA it's all such a crapshoot.

I am wholly convinced that September will mark a local bottom so we'll see how that pans out.

I'm honestly a lot more interested in the value measured against BTC because that's what I'll be using to buy Hive if the price is right. A repeat of last cycle would indeed put us at a low against BTC at the end of this year. I was a bit convinced last cycle was a bit of a one-off because of the hostile takeover but maybe not.

the Hive/BTC chart brings insomnia for me, so I don't even look at it anymore :) I might as well look down a water well

I don't want to say it, but... we are right on track

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The lack of fiat ramps definitely bites. This is a price range where I'd be throwing fiat at Hive, but not a price that I want to eat the fees for swapping btc->hive. So, like you, stuck in HODL right now and wishing I had either way more for swaps, or way more fiat to toss into the mix lol

If ur in USA u can do it without any mining fee. Cash app pays all fees if u choose non rush option. I have bought thousands of give this past week and paid not a single sat fee. Only a tiny fee on the Simple Swap end.

Yeah, unfortunately I'm in Canada and so far as I know our available ramps to Hive are basically non-existent. When I last looked, the only option I had available was either shady use of VPNs or SimpleSwap.

Check out brianoflondon V4V.app..guess you need kyc to get there (mostly).

Thanks! I'll give that a look and see if it's something that might make this situation better.

Some of the canadian versions of coin base are now offering new way to on-ramp your fiat. Look into it..

I don't really have a problem with getting fiat into things like btc, rune, etc... it's Fiat straight to Hive that is a problem, as it's a pain to have to jump through hoops and needlessly lose value to fees and swaps getting it into Hive after buying another coin.

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That would be pretty tempting if it dropped down that low. I don't like the idea of parting with my BTC though. Would that be one of the cases that a loan might be a smarter play? I've been buying a bit here and there with my HBD. I'm trying to get some liquid HIVE so that if the price does turn around I can take advantage.

I don't like the idea of parting with my BTC though.

This is my assessment as well.
Which means we probably never accumulated enough BTC to begin with.
I'm realizing this a systemic problem for Hive as a whole.

Oh yeah, I would totally agree with that. I still don't own even half a BTC and I likely never will! I got in later than some, but I still remember that one March when it was down to $3000.

I remember buying on that dip. It was $4750 and I got .5 BTC. I wish I got more!

I bought a little bit too. Not that much, but a bit. Too bad I think I moved it into something else when the price went back around $12K!

I’m betting in a year bitcoin will have again outperformed Hive. Hive is about ti break down to below .25 cents and by at least a few penny’s. Hey btw you know u can pay no fee to get hive right? Using cash app there is an option they pay all the mining fees. It’s the non rush option. I use weekly to buy hive. I pay a tiny fee on Simple Swap he’s but the mining fee I do not at all.

Cycles start to feel like you doing the tango, ten steps forward direction eight back again!

Smile never known anything to be easy....

Hive is acting opposite to most crypto’s this cycle. It’s looking grim. .18 cents is probably on its way.

We have had high's and low's...., it's crypto! Still not quite the value it should be.

There was a time that I was so convinced that HIVE below 1 USD is always a buy for me.

I'm afraid of the $0.10 price for HIVE. And I do not exclude that in a bear market there will be such a price.

.25 will 100% break. The best support is indeed .10 cents. That said with such a ball cap below .25 cents , a few big buyers could keep it from reaching .10 cents.. but it’s possible

Headed to .25 again. Ho hum. Well, no one ever said it'd be easy to get rich off Hive, did they? 😃

Let's see what happens next. I'm holding, and buying some. Not with BTC, but with what little fiat I can sneak out of my bank account without the wife noticing (shhhhh 🤫)

We are going way lower than .25 cents

I wouldn't be surprised. I do hope that's wrong, but I wouldn't be surprised. Fewer easy ways for being to buy HIVE, too few new users joining, hive watchers doing every thing they can to chase most of the new people who do join away, the DHF paying out tons of money for nothing, money which immediately gets sold, creating endless downward pressure. The chickens are coming home to roost. We have our work cut out for us in getting HIVE back to a decent value.

If I make a post showing USA people how do use cash app to turn bitcoin into hive and paying literally no mining fee would that be helpful?

I'd say yes. Make it and I'll reblog. We need to start spreading around info to help people do things as much as we can.

Will do 👍. Next day or two 👍

me

just waiting for it

Sadly, I am not in conditions to buy more Hive. I am in a situation where hold is a hard fight due the real life needs.

I'm still not really sure why there are big buyers of Hive. Sure, they might be speculating, but while they're buying Hive there is the opportunity cost of not buying BTC... and I get that some dApps need resource credits, but they don't need infinite resource credits anytime soon... so yeah, the selling pressure will always exist, but I'm honestly not sure what generates buying pressure.

Excited that you mentioned a few different efforts to tackle the two problems you mentioned, I tend not to delve into that space so not super aware of all the technical goings on in the Hive ecosystem.

😀 I have found that Asgardex charges me $8 in fees and the LPs have been losing money rather than give me the 100%+ return as estimated in the pool list. If you don't care about privacy or hiding who and when you transact with amd you aren't interested in smart contracts, Hive is the best blockchain.

Bitcoin Core devs are far too hung up on the block-size limit. The fees are too high and the competing blockchains are all superior in performance. So why does Bitcoin Core have a $64,000 price while Hive costs only a quarter?

That's the $64,000 question.

U can turn bitcoin into hive for free. Use cash app and they pay the mining fee. Literally. Simple swap end has a tiny fee but u don’t pay any mining fees

I’ve been buying dribs and drabs of HIVE on the internal market, but the dearth of on/off ramps is depressing.

i keep saying it to jinx it and provoke the market gods to have an actual bottom now, but here it goes again:

0.1444 usd

I feel that having 120M Hive on upbit is not helping. We are sometimes having 100M dollars daily volume on there which is crazy really. Maybe it just takes too much money to move Hive sustainably and whales just p&d it... if price doesn't move up big time in the next half a year, we might never make a new ATH this cycle. Would you sell a $1? And how low would Hive fall in the coming bear... oh well, we should probably all start stacking sats on the side

We are definitely not making a new ATH this cycle. That’s $3.34 which is like 940% up from here. Does anyone really believe we do? Last year we are moving lower as most crypto’s moved higher.

Hive did like a 34x last cycle; we got a much better chain now so it doesn't seem unlikely we can pull that off again. But crypto isn't about fundamentals unfortunately

We are in a full bear market move on Hive while many others are back to ATH’s already. I doubt we see $1.00 this or next year. I’d say we gotta wait for the next cycle honestly.

Random grab of others, most up 100% past 12 months. Hive not only flat but down

![4AA4BFE4-D7F1-4FE7-B057-3530798B7857.jpeg](UPLOAD FAILED)

This is so sad man... You're right on the two things Hive needs, I hope it happens big bro. It's tough seeing Hive struggle, especially when there's potential at 25 cents. I wish there were easier ways to buy, and the reliance on other tokens feels limiting in a way

I don't know how to trade.

Not meaning, i do not know charts, cycles, things.
Not meaning i do not know the future

But, what do you do when your are waiting for your favorite coins to moon?
I am not in a trader's mindset. I am in a HODLer's mindset.

And i know the big, black swans are coming, and i don't want to get washed out.

I could probably be 10x better today, but only if i changed my mindset.
I could have been 10x better today if i just kept writing.
Probably be better at writing, and have more images to use.

But, i also know that cryptos are going to go soooo high that i have my retirement covered.

What is the difference of 1 bitcoin vs 10 bitcoin, when 1 bitcoin is more than you could ever spend?

🤩 !PGM

Time to use some of this HBD to buy Hive!

Unfortunately it seems the opposite is happening.

It needs user growth most. Liquidity sure but .25 cents isn’t gonna hold this time. It’s obvious looking at this. .22 cents incoming

Wow wtf is This man

Hive has fallen below rank #400 on the market cap which is pretty demoralizing to be honest.

That's why I like to use coincap.io

Hive is at #169 there ;>)

A

who will defend 25c? Maybe no one.

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