Crazy Day for BTC: But who will win? The Hopes & Dreams or The Logic?

in LeoFinance4 months ago (edited)

Isn't it funny when the market decides to get some fuel into Bitcoin, suddenly Twitter is full of bullish statements on this coin? Sure, this coin may have proven itself. Bitcoin may have crossed the chasm and is trying to get into its growth phase. But does this mean the sky is the limit? "50k US Dollars soon", I've read a lot of times in my Twitter feed today. It is suggested Elon Musk Twitter profile (source) stating: "#Bitcoin" to be the trigger for the +/- 20% uptick BTC got less than 24hrs ago. Soon and BTC is reaching Mars if we shall believe Twitter.


creation by yours truly

Trying to get back to Earth

Do you notice last so few weeks what BTC is doing? The chart below shows the trend clearly. Downhill. The blue lines I drew a few days ago showing a tapering towards a breakpoint or move sideways. Last night (UTC timezone), some actors in the market decided to push BTC out of this triangle, to the upside. But this was short-lived. The mass in the market pushed BTC right back into the triangle.

And then... The massive breakout some hours afterwards! Super nice! We like to see this.

But does this show us, BTC to 50k US Dollars soon? All-time-high was at around 42k, while the breakout of last night reached around 38k only. Sure, a 15 to 20% increase over yesterdays value, but in the end, still 4k short of all-time-high. Since this afternoon (again UTC timezone), BTC is struggling to move up further. The bears are winning, hour after hour.


screenshot BTC/USDT chart at Binance

NOTE: The Chart above shows the situation of BTC before I started writing this article. At the time of publication, BTC moved further down to below 35k. Bears playing strong!

Nobody can predict the future (when somebody can, please let me know) therefore we will have to wait until we know what BTC will do. Will it move up further, break its record? Or will it come down?

A recent article by @edicted (source) suggest BTC can come down to 20k US Dollar. I would even say: Why not all-the-way down to 10k US Dollar? 10k was a value BTC loved for a long time and sometime back in 2020 it found enough strength to break this value. Why would this level not be the level it's gonna try to reach again, but now from the other side?

When we set Hopes and Dreams aside

I think it makes much sense BTC will come down for the simple fact that the altcoin season recently started driving BTC owners to sell BTC for whatever altcoins they like. This puts a selling pressure on BTC, which will push the value of BTC down.

Keep in mind, when the 18 to 24 months after the last BTC halving is gonna be a replay of the previous few BTC halving periods, it's gonna be very difficult to defend the idea of BTC moving up to 50k and beyond. It needs to retrace so it can go into its second run-up in Q3 or Q4 2021.

Sure, this time BTC may behave differently. But do you think it is realistic BTC will move to 50k soon? And then let's say 100k soonish after that? What will BTC levels be end of 2021? 1M? Surely, of course, that would be super cool! But realistic?

Why Ether could Outpace BTC

At the same time, Ether may come down as well. Though Ether shows all signs of a trend upwards, it has issues to break all-time-high. Recently it tested all-time-high a few times, set some new records because it just tipped over its previous record. But nothing and nothing is shown it has the power to truly break its record. We all know what usually happens. When a coin doesn't break after trying for a considerable time, people move their attention to something else while the coin will deflate to some lower levels.

On the other hand, it may play out differently for Ether. Though it may not set seriously higher all-time-high levels any time soon, Ether may keep on hovering around current levels.

Many top 100 coins are having swap pairs with Ethereum based DeFi contracts. To benefit from some extra income when acquiring some more altcoins, people may move more and more of their coins in these swap pools, not only locking up their altcoins of choice but Ether as well. It is these Ether lockups that may prevent Ether from coming down (too) hard. It may even cause Ether to set new all-time-highs regularly.

What Do You Think?

As you may know, I'm not much of a Technical Analyses guy (read this one if you like to learn about my TA approach). I may not even know too much about trading. Therefore my reasoning may be off by a gazillion miles!

You must have more knowledge than I have, so let your predictions come to the table. But please, give also your reasoning why you think this or that.

Those who are driven by Hopes and Dreams, please drop a comment as well... But try to make a super funny one! The more humour, The better 🙃 I like to see lots and lots of LOL's and love to roll over my floors for hours and hours 🤣

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My man... it is my considered opinion that you have missed the boat completely on the Ethereum side of things. Now I KNOW I am in the minority in the crypto space when I say Ethereum may not have much more than a 'shelf' life of another 3 to 6 years and then it will be defunct. Yes, the adoption has been phenomenal ... but that may well be its undoing. Gas Fees, transaction fees and transaction times goes through the roof. DeFi is even more dependent on transaction times... there are a host of competitors lining up to release Ethereum from their burden.... Cardano, Qtum, my favorite ZILLIQA, Waves and a host more that I don't even know of.
Almost three years the Ethereum team has been working on the scaling problems and as yet there has been no success. Ethereum 2.0 launch was delayed and delayed. I think a PoS ETh 2.0 was launched in November ....but issues have still been experienced on a regular basis.

BTC due to lack of flow (HODL and institutional investment) will appreciate in value over time. FACT

Owww, I wasn't aware I made long long term statements in my post. Did I?

I have similar views as you regarding BTC as well as regarding Ether. Its for a reason I staked the little WISE I aquired for 365 days instead of a longer period (its possible to stake up to 42 years). WISE is a Ethereum contract and I doubt this chain will survive in the end for all the reasons you gave. However, on shorter term (year and a few more), Ethereum is the choice for many projects. Even Verizon (the US communication giant) decided late last year to release their press releases on Ethereum. They could've find much better chains to do so, but no, Ethereum was chosen. It's a brand thing. Ether may (and likely will) do well for coming period.

KOINOS is currently being build and could be a fantastic competitors to Ethereum. Native smart contract support, feeless transaction and all. No 10$ to 100$ transaction costs anymore when swapping tokens or providing liquidity to a swap pool! 😉

I dont believe in vaporware... so until Koinos is a viable, live project ... it is just vaporware {grin}. Zilliqa is up and running with a live mainnet (2 years now)a'nd transactions in the thousands per second.

Believe is subjective: Vaporware can be attractive :) Think of investment point of view: San Fran style angle investing, ie investing in concepts and people :)

I read about STRATIS (rebranded and rechained to STRAX). They tell us they (gonna) offer a smooth migration path for Ethereum based DeFi projects to their STRAX chain. Here is a popst I wrote about it some time ago: https://ecency.com/post/@edje/strax-the-not-so-new-kid-on-the-block-or-stratis-offering-the-swap-of-strat-to-strax

Will give it a read. As far as I can recall Stratis was a project from late 2016 early 2017??

Correct, an old project. The team is primarily a consulting firm bringing blockchain tech to companies. As far as I remember they are based on Switzerland, the city of Zug (the blockchian city in Switzerland). The base chain was Stratis, now it is Strax (faster blocktimes). Chain is based on PoW, kinda like Bitcoin chain, but modified. They have side chains for services. They also provide whitelabelled (public/private) side chains to companies and corporates. In my opinion, a very professional company and management of the tech with the aim to connect none-crypto world with blockchains. Not a fast mover in that sense, in financial terms, but a solid mover.

Did you manage to recover your tokens from the now defunct wallet? I still have ARK, Waves, QTUM, Blockv (Vee??) all from 2017. The BlockV tokens cost me $540 ... now they worth $1.20

Yea, I got my STRAX :)

Have so many coins from back in 2017 that are worth nothing today. Just reading up on the latest and greatest by FunFair team. Their token is on the rise and loved them back in 2017. Almost a top 100 chain now in market cap. Super! :)

Price prediction from a hope and dreamer? $50 million by tomorrow 😀

🤣🤣🤣

20:37 (EU timezone) - BTC below 34500

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta

Let us never stop dreaming

Agree, but I leave the dreaming part outside of crypto investments. For this, I apply Logic only. Sometimes my emotions are kicking Logic out. Since this results usually in a 'burn', Logic usually returns quickly 🙃

Hahaha... Those Burns I can handle very well {LOL}

With the Covid days spent mostly indoors we can all use some burning hahahah

Hahaha indeed 💃🎶🕺

With the Covid days spent mostly indoors we can all use some burning hahahah